Eighteen Years

On September 11th, it was one week hence of my moving back to the area from Clemson. That morning, I remember I had a dream where I was in the back of an empty tractor trailer, and two of my former Clemson students were in there. We felt something hit the truck, and the student said he thought we had been hit. 

I then woke up around 8:50 and turned on The Today Show, just after the first plane hit the North Tower. Like everyone, I thought it was an accident and wondering why a plane would veer off-course over Manhattan. Then the second plane hit. My first thought was, How are they going to get those planes out of there? And the people? 

I watched, confused like most at that point. Then the plane hit the Pentagon. Every morning I would go down to the bodega at the end of my street for coffee, and went down right after this happened. I knew the manager of the store, and I remember telling her what happened; I felt like I needed to tell someone what happened. I was trying to make sense of the chaos. 

After I got my coffee, then Flight 93 went down. I was baffled; this was a time when terrorism wasn't the immediate first thought. Then a few minutes later the North Tower collaped. I was stunned, unnerved at how fast it and the South Tower came down. 

I distinctly remember on CNN and on other news coverage people being interviewed kept saying, "It's like something out of a movie." Everyone was trying to make sense out of the chaos. I've never shaken that.

The day was surreal overall. Most channels, from the Home Shopping. Network to MTV, went off-air, the sole focus on the networks and the news channels. Imagine this happening with social media now. 

The next day was not much different. But I wanted to see the Jay and Silent Bob movie, so I went to theater. Most of north Johnson City was quieter than normal, the theater empty. The movie was a waste (save for Chris Rock), two hours I wouldn't get back. As I was leaving I looked at the marquee and saw the list of films playing, and at the bottom I saw, "God Bless America." I thought, What movie is that? Then it hit me. Patriotism began blossoming. But when the flags went up after about four days, the politics kicked in. 

Of all the writings and photos around that time, of people jumping and the endless loop of the planes crashing into the Towers, one image got to me. I picked up the book This is New York, a big photography book chronically every aspect of that day, from screen shots of the television networks off-air and photos from newsrooms to police and fire at work. Then I happened across of photo of a woman's severed leg, with painted toenails and a stiletto, presuming she was one of the jumpers. I thought, Did she know getting dressed and going out that...

Fool's Gold: The MS Maven's Fearless (More So) Oscar Predix 2019

In the mid-70's, ABC aired Almost Anything Goes, an odd show hosted by Regis Philbin that was a three-episode blip on the radar it was so bad. ABC is apparently reviving it tonight in the form of this year's Academy Awards. 

For years I've yawped about how the Oscar season should be shortened, primarily because who the hell remembers movies from the previous year in April? This year was shorter but it's felt like the longest one yet. Lesson learned, be careful what you wish for. 

As usual for me, the film year ended with a handful of really fine (Can You Ever Forgive Me? (which, as Sasha Stone rightly said, should have been up for Best Picture), BlacKkKansman, A Star is Born, If Beale Street Could Talk) and fun (Bohemian Rhapsody, Isle of Dogs) films. Some had nice performances in mediocre films (Green Book and Vice). In other words, same shit, different year. (I still say television at the moment is better collectively than film, but that's an argument for another day). 

So tonight I think in terms of winners and the show itself anything goes. The sadly now late, great William Goldman famously said about Hollywood, "Nobody knows anything," and this year it's true in spades. Each year we pundits always hope for surprises to shake things up if it happens to be a predictable year. Not this one. This is one year I don't know anything. Too bad Goldman can't see this. 

Voting Academy members I know are all over the place with several categories, especially Best Picture. I think this year is a near-turning point because I'm not convinced Roma will win. I say near because there's a camp out there who's opposed to voting for a film you can stream at home; Steven Spielberg popped off that if a film is seen through a streaming service let it be up for an Emmy. I don't agree with this because I do think the way we watch films will shift to more streaming, but, like with every other technical innovation for watching, I don't think this will be the death of seeing movies in theaters. The problem with seeing movies in theaters now is two-fold: one, ticket prices, and two, the "theatrical experience," because of said-technology, is almost dead. Meaning, people come in and get on their phones or act like they're in their living rooms. Folks don't value the experience anymore. I digress, but my point is it may take a couple of years before Hollywood figures out a way to utilize streaming film to maximum effect, aka commodify it. And Spielberg will change his tune. 

Back to Best Picture, I'm also not convinced Green Book will win, either. It's pedestrian with two performances that save the film, and I won't be upset if Mahershala Ali wins because, as I've said, he's now in Denzel territory and I loves me some Ali because I've followed him from before House of Cards; again he's better in True Detective (memo to HBO: why did you schedule the season finale on Oscar Sunday? My DVR hates you). But I know a lot of folks who have problems w/ the film, but some also see the film as reflecting our times. Sorry, but Peter Farrelly (love his comedies) couldn't hold Barry Jenkins's jockstrap because the latter's film, If Beale Street Should Talk, based on James Baldwin's book published over 40 years ago, speaks greater to today's current cultural climate (and should have been up, along with Can You Ever Forgive Me? for Picture). 

So where does that leave us? My gut has said (and this year my gut was wrong with some of the nominations) Black Panther will win because it straddles the two elements that Picture represents (a powerful message and good storytelling) or whats to represent (a blockbuster film), which the Academy hasn't had in eons. This would be the perfect film for these pedigrees. I would love to see BlacKkKlansman or A Star is Born (man, talk about the air going out of a film!), but it won't happen. Some have said Bohemian Rhapsody, but there are too many folks who are upset about Bryan Singer but not with Rami Malek, so he will win but the film won't (it'll win for one or both Sound categories). And Vice will have to settle for Hair/Makeup because Adam McKay got too cute here; the performances are solid, but I can't see anyone winning because they were enjoyable, more than the film, but not earth-shattering. Some fun moments and the storytelling device is brilliant, but it doesn't hold together. Plus, I can't see Amy Adams finally winning for this film (but Meryl Streep did win for The Iron Lady, far from her best role, so there's that). Loves me some Christian Bale but this isn't his best, either. I don't see him beating Malek. 


Now, all of this said, should Roma NOT win Foreign-Language Film (and there have been upsets aplenty in this category), look out! I don't think it will win both film categories, but I also don't see it not winning FLF. Maybe Cuaron win Director and Cinematography (love the film, not the year's best, and a lot of the shots in it remind me of Fellini, as if watching a black-and-white Amarcord) but nothing else. 

The other conundrum is if Mahershala Ali wins Supporting Actor that may be Green Book's only Oscar. He seemed a lock most of the season, but the bulk of Oscar voters I know indicated they voted for Richard E. Grant. There has been a last-minute surge for Can You Ever Forgive Me?, happily, and I don't know anyone who has voted Ali, unless they're lying, and they do lie for a living. The blind Oscar ballots that come out around this time is ripe for this. Ali would be a safe way to vote for the film, but my gut has been saying Grant. Will I pull the trigger? I'm still deciding as I type this. I'm cool w/ Ali but I want Grant and am trying to put bias aside. 

Actress will go to Close (deservedly), but any one of the five nominees could win and I would be happy. A solid year for women. And Regina King will finally get some dap, an actress who has been so underrated over the years, despite her Emmy wins. 

I would be thrilled if Spike Lee wins for Director, but he'll win for Adapted Screenplay (I think). I would also be thrilled with Can You Ever Forgive Me? (and it could upset) or If Beale Street Could Talk. And Lady Gaga better win for "Shallow." She was hosed before in this category and am still pissed; do you even remember that Sam Smith song and that it was from a Bond film? Didn't think so. Now watch Diane Warren finally win. 

And speaking of hosed, that's what Bradley Cooper is this year, sadly. He's almost in Tom Cruise territory in terms of having industry respect but no Oscar. Will they Argo Cooper? Don't think so. And for the record, Jay Cassidy was robbed not being up for Editing. 

All of this is conjecture because every year we fall into the trap of thinking folks get together as if by committee and vote for what's "best," when the opposite is often true and voters back into getting it right. I think we may see some upsets because it may be a case of "Wait, I thought you were voting for..."

And I haven't even mention the show itself. Enough has been said about it. I think it will be fun as well as frustrating. We watch not for things to go smoothly but for a train wreck or two, and there will be a couple. And the producers can carp all they want to, but the show will not be at three hours  Give it up guys, you can deal with another 20 minutes. But if they don't try to revive Rob Lowe and Snow White from the last time the show was hostless with James Franco and Elsa from Frozen, we're good.

And my new mantra, now that Roger Deakins finally won last year: When is Wes Anderson going to win a goddamned Oscar? (Bradley Baby is still a bit young to qualify for this mantra, but he's close). 

So now there's nothing to be done but to sit back and watch the fur (or faux furs) fly. Here are my predictions with upsets. I don't know anything so here goes:

Picture: Black Panther
upset: Roma

Director: Alfonso Cuaron
upset: Spike Lee

Actor: Rami Malek
upset: Christian Bale

Actress: Glenn Close
upset: Lady Gaga

Supporting Actor: Richard E. Grant (pulled the trigger, on a coin flip)
upset: Mahershala Ali

Supporting Actress: Regina King
upset: Rachel Weisz

Original Screenplay: The Favourite 
upset: Green Book

Adapted Screenplay: BlacKkKlansman
upset: Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Foreign Film: Roma
upset: Cold War

Animated Feature: Spiderman: Into the Spider-Verse
upset: Isle of Dogs

Original Song: "Shallow"--A Star is Born
upset: "I'll Fight"--RBG

Score: BlacKkKlansman
upset: If Beale Street Could Talk

Cinematography: Roma
upset: Cold War

Editing: Bohemian Rhapsody
upset: BlacKkKlansman

Production Design: The Favourite
upset: Black Panther

Costume Design: Black Panther
upset: The Favourite

Sound Editing: First Man
upset: Bohemian Rhapsody

Sound Mixing: Bohemian Rhapsody
upset: A Star is Born

Visual Effects: Avengers: Infinity War
upset: First Man

Hair/Makeup: Vice
upset: Mary, Queen of Scots

Documentary Feature: Free Solo
upset: Minding the Gap

Documentary Short: Period. End of Sentence
upset: Black Sheep

Animated Short: Bao 
upset: Animal Behaviour

Live-Action Short: Marguerite
upset: Skin

Wins

Roma                          3

Bohemian Rhapsody. 3

BlacKkKlansman.       2

Black Panther.            2

If Beale Street/Talk.    1

Green Book.               1

Vice                            1

Running Time: 3 Hours 16 Minutes

My work is done here. Them's my predix, and I'm sticking to them. Per usual The Maven will be venting the annual rite of passage on the socials (@Franster23 on Twitter), so follow along or mute me til Tuesday. Again, no Oscar pool to save for the March Madness brackets and copious amounts of alcohol in case of emergency tonight.

Happy Oscar Sunday, peeps! And, of course, Shalom!

The Shithole Year: The Maven's Fearless (and Probably Foolish) Oscar Predix 2019

I've been late to the Oscar predix game this season and can't focus, at the moment because I'm still pissed about the no-call in the Saints game, but overall because I've not been bowled over by much filmwise this year. Granted, I'm still catching up to some films, and I shall plow the Oscar fields over the next few weeks. 

That said, another reason I've dragged my feet is because Film Twitter lost its damned mind. This is my 40th year of Oscar prognostication, my first being The Deer Hunter year of 1978. Remember when Allan Carr made EMI and Universal pull the film and open in New York and Los Angeles? A huge controversy then, but now it's de rigueur. That's tiddlywinks compared to the controversies that have popped loose this go-round, be it about Green Book, Bohemian Rhapsody, whatever. A film isn't black enough, there aren't enough women, etc. The Academy membership is evolving, and changes will take time, and some of these changes we'll see tomorrow morning. I will say this: I think if Laura Dern had been elected Academy President over John Bailey, things would be better. 

The Oscars have always been controversial and political, but our current cultural climate seems to have seeped into the Oscar race and caused a lot of personal finger-pointing and name-calling. As Sasha Stone says, they're just movies, they're just gold statues, and she's right. The controversies of the past were fun because we were looking at the Oscars from afar, poking fun. Now folks have made it a politically correct game and taking everything so personally, and it just plain sucks. Jesus, Larry, and Tito, they're just awards. Watch the movies (and the Oscars) and enjoy them, or not. There are more serious problems going on right now, folks. 

My problems with the film year has nothing to do with the PC game, it's just a collectively mediocre year. Call it a shithole year. That's it. There's a smattering of good films among them: First Man, Black Panther, Vice, BlacKKKlansman. For me, Roma (exquisite, reminds me of one of my favorite films, Fellini's Amarcord), If Beale Street Could Talk (I'm biased, I teach James Baldwin a lot, plus I'm a huge Barry Jenkins and Regina King fan; she better well win Supporting Actress). A Star is Born is a revelation. I love Bradley Baby, but Lady Gaga is stunning; I never thought a fourth try at this story would be this good. And Actress will come down to Gaga and Glenn Close, just as stunning, which is tough. Too bad they can't split here as well. 

And, like with a lot of years, many an Oscar bait film fizzled: Boy Erased, Beautiful Boy, Welcome to Marwen, Destroyer. Roma I don't think would be getting as much love as it is had it not been for Netflix. I see this year, for film and television, being a cultural shift in terms of how movies are marketed, distributed, and vamped for awards. The Hollywood Technology Paradox is that there are more platforms and outlets for watching and streaming, yet it's still hard to see the films. You still see five screens devoted to The Avengers. Calling the ghost of Allan Carr...

And Green Book. I'm not getting in the middle of the mess that erupted (plus, again, Sasha Stone wrote the best piece about this), but let me toss a bit of political theory at you as it pertains to the movies themselves and not the surrounding morass. Notice in turbulent cultural times that movies that win tend to be tame, pedestrian, and safe. During the horrific year of 1968 what won Best Picture? Oliver! In 1973? The Sting. In 1989? Driving Miss Daisy. So if Green Book should win (it won the PGA, but you can't go by this, not with recent history), I think it's Hollywood playing it safe with a film that touches the racial bases (yes, Driving Miss Daisy in reverse, as some have said) in a pedestrian way. Mahershala Ali may win Supporting Actor and could be Green Book's only Oscar, if at all. Ali at this point could read the phonebook and be great; plus, I think folks will think of True Detective, where I think he's actually better. 

A few last-minute thoughts:

1--First Man will do well, and I think it will be ironic that it will probably be up for a slew of Awards, but not for Ryan Gosling nor Damien Chazelle. 

2--I'm not sure of how much of a showing Crazy Rich Asians will have, if at all. Maybe Michelle Yeoh, maybe Picture. 

3--I hope If Beale Street Could Talk is up for more than Supporting Actress and Adapted Screenplay. I think it will. 

4--I also hope Paul Schrader is up for Screenplay as well. I can't believe he's never had a nomination; I had to look back to remember Taxi Driver wasn't up for Screenplay I think that changes tomorrow. 

5--Now that Roger Deakins finally won last year: Is Wes Anderson ever going to win a goddamned Oscar? Isle of Dogs is one of his best films, so...

6--Bohemian Rhapsody. What to make of it. Two noms for sure are for Rami Malek for Actor and his teeth for Makeup. It will be up for some technical categories as well. Picture? I think so, despite this being a film where the performance is the movie. And this one has been a controversy as well, but Malik is untouched by this. It's between him and Bale, but let's not get ahead of ourselves here. 

7--I'm not pulling the trigger, but my gut is telling me Sam Rockwell will get in over Richard E. Grant. I'm thinking neither Grant nor McCarthy will be up. I think the film peaked too early. Nothing against it, just my gut. 

8--My one hope for tomorrow is that Yalitza Aparicio is up for Actress. Roma will be up for a ton, happily, and I hope she's caught up in that sweep. 

9--My surprise nominee would be Viola Davis or Toni Collette for Actress. Watch it be Julia Roberts or Nicole Kidman. Jonathan Pryce for The Wife would be pretty goddamned sweet, but that ain't happening. 

Enough already. As usual, I don't do the music, docs, or shorts, but my nomination totals will account for these. Here's my predix, five noms I think with three alternates. No more guessing, away we go:

Picture

Roma

Green Book

A Star is Born

BlacKKKlansman

The Favourite

Black Panther

If Beale Street Could Talk

Vice

---

Crazy Rich Asians

Director

Alfonso Cuaron

Bradley Cooper

Spike Lee

Adam McKay

Barry Jenkins

---

Yorgos Lanthimos

Peter Farrelly

Ryan Coogler

Actor

Christian Bale

Rami Malek

Bradley Cooper

Viggo Mortensen

Ethan Hawke

---

John David Washington

Willem Dafoe

Ryan Gosling

Actress

Glenn Close 

Lady Gaga

Olivia Coleman

Yalitza Aparicio

Emily Blunt

---

Viola Davis

Toni Collette

Melissa McCarthy

Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali

Adam Driver

Sam Elliott

Timothee Chalamet

Richard E. Grant

---

Sam Rockwell

Michael B. Jordan

Brian Tyree Henry

Supporting Actress

Regina King

Amy Adams

Claire Foy

Emma Stone

Rachel Weisz

---

Margot Robbie

Michelle Yeoh

Nicole Kidman

Original Screenplay

The Favourite

Roma

Eighth Grade 

First Reformed

Vice

---

Green Book

A Quiet Place

Isle of Dogs

Adapted Screenplay

If Beale Street Could Talk

BlacKKKLansman

A Star is Born

Black Panther

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

---

Crazy Rich Asians

The Death of Stalin

First Man

Cinematography

Roma

Cold War

A Star is Born

First Man

If Beale Street Could Talk

Editing

A Star is Born

First Man

Roma

Black Panther

Vice

---

The Favourite

Green Book

BlacKKKlansman

Production Design

The Favourite

Mary Poppins Returns

Roma

Black Panther

First Man

---

Crazy Rich Asians

Mary, Queen of Scots

Bohemian Rhapsody

Costume Design

The Favourite

Mary, Queen of Scots

Bohemian Rhapsody

Black Panther

Mary Poppins Returns

---

A Star is Born

Crazy Rich Asians

Fantastic Beasts 2

Sound Editing

Roma

A Quiet Place

Black Panther

First Man

A Star is Born

---

Bohemian Rhapsody

Mission Impossible: Fallout

Avengers: Infinity War

Sound Mixing

Bohemian Rhapsody

First Man

A Quiet Place

A Star is Born

Roma

---

Mary Poppins Returns

Black Panther

Avengers: Infinity War

Visual Effects

Avengers: Infinity War

Black Panther

Solo: A Star Wars Story

Ready Player One

First Man

---

Mary Poppins Returns

Welcome to Marwen

Christopher Robin

Makeup

Vice

Mary, Queen of Scots

Bohemian Rhapsody

Nominations

A Star is Born             10

Roma                           9

Black Panther              8

The Favourite              7

First Man                     7

Vice.                            6

Bohemian Rhapsody  6

Green Book                5

If Beale Street Could Talk 5

Them's my predix, and I'm sticking to them. As usual, there will be an omission or two and, hopefully, a happy surprise. We need something to jolt us awake come 8:20am in the morning (why do they keep moving the time, and at odd times at that? Fuzzy Oscar math...

The Maven's work is done until Oscar eve before February 24th, when the Great American Shitshow takes place (I'll reserve comment about the hosting controversy until I predict the winners). 

Happy Oscar Nominations Day! And, of course, shalom, y'all!

Stumped, Trumped, Scattered, and Covered: The MS Maven's Fearless (and this year maybe Foolish) Oscar Predix 2018

The long slog to Oscar Sunday is almost over. You're tired, I'm tired. This, despite the Olympics pushing the Oscar ceremony to June. 

Thus, the usual overanalyzing, politicizing, backlashing, surging, and pontificating has been in overdrive. The result? Best Picture is still up in the air as I write this. The preferential ballot is the wild card and has been since BP went to more than five films. Forget the guild winners, for those ships have sailed. They're not the barometers they used to be, which makes this all the more fun, and frustrating as hell. 

I've always said that Best Picture, for me, was an afterthought, because I'm the geek who cares about writing and editing and cinematography (and I don't know shit about sound, nor do you). Various elements make a movie, but Best Picture is the shiny object Hollywood wants to hold up to the world to say, "See what we made?" It's about putting butts in seats, not art, these awards, sadly. However, sometimes better, less pedestrian films break through, which is why the Oscars are like a bad car accident, we can't help but look at them despite ourselves. 

You have to admit, last year's envelope snafu was a hell of a lot of fun. But what I like to keep pointing out is that art did break out last year. Moonlight, the small-budgeted film that could with fine performances, a terrific screenplay, and a last shot that packs an emotional wallop, won fucking Best Picture, and that fact has gotten lost in the shuffle. 

Will a more artistic film break out again this year, what with the more diverse makeup of new Academy members? The jury's still out, because just because a new crop of voters have joined the Academy doesn't mean they won't also give their ballots to others to vote, vote for studios that employed them, etc. I've always appreciated more the nominations over the wins because that's where the true diversity lies. I think this is largely because each faction votes only for their own categories (actors for acting, editors for editing, etc.). With the entire membership voting for every category, this is why we are back to square one of trying to figure out what will win any category, especially Best Picture this year. 

If I was a voting member of the Academy (and I still hold to my claim of willing to sleep with a member of PricewaterhouseCoopers to get the vote totals for any given year), this is how I would vote for the major categories:

Picture
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Get Out
Call Me By Your Name
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The Post
The Darkest Hour
Dunkirk

Acting
Timothee Chalamet
Saoirse Ronan
Woody Harrelson
Laurie Metcalf

Writing
Lady Bird
Call Me By Your Name

But I'm not a voting member of the Academy. 

My last-minute observations:

1--Don't count on Editing to tip you off to what will win BP. I think Baby Driver will win. But if you see a couple of early awards for Three Billboards or The Shape of Water, maybe. But it was an hour and a half into the show last year before La La Land won its first award. The days of folks ticking off a single film to sweep awards are gone, baby, gone. 

2--Roger Deakins will finally win a goddamned Oscar more than likely. Won't be upset with Shape of Water if it wins, and this may be more an indicator of BP this year. 

3--I know Agnes Varda won an honorary Oscar this year, so will she or one of J.R.'s cutouts make an appearance? I still can't believe this is her first nomination (not for Vagabond? Seriously?), and I think she will and hope she wins. Her win and Deakins will make my year. 

4--You know how romantic it seems to shower with your significant other? The problem with this is that someone always is left cold. When the nominations were announced, I thought that Get Out would be that film to be left out in terms of any wins, especially with just four nominations. But my gut this past week says that Lady Bird will be the one to go empty-handed, and it pisses me off. I thought Lady Bird (and Phantom Thread) was the best film of the year, it was quite well reviewed, and I know a lot of folks love Ronan. As much as I loved Brie Larson in Room, I think that vote total was closer than we think because there have been a lot of folks invoke Ronan's performance in Brooklyn when discussing her nod this year. Will voters tick off her name to make up for Brooklyn, not unlike Renee Zellweger winning for Cold Mountain (which I thought she deserved/earned) when she should have won for Chicago? Maybe. Ronan's the only threat to McDormand (and Sally Hawkins is lovely, and she should have been up for Happy Go Lucky, underrated). And, seriously, like being on the jury to convict OJ, would you vote against McDormand? She can do anything. She's not as good here as she was in Fargo, but she and Harrelson are what make Three Billboards work, not the directing and definitely not the screenplay, for Martin McDonagh; he wrote himself into a hole in the last third of the film. I enjoyed the hell out of it, I didn't find it racist, and I like the sloppy aspects. But the best? Nope. 

5--If Jordan Peele should win in any category, I would love to see Keegan-Michael Key come out and translate his acceptance speech. 

6--I think there are two possibilities of upsets for acting. One is Christopher Plummer over Sam Rockwell, not because of the circumstance under which Plummer replaced Kevin Spacey, but he is beloved and is fine in All the Money in the World. Wouldn't it be funny if he and Varda both win, making them the oldest Oscar winners in history? The other, more plausible possibility is Laurie Metcalf over Allison Janney. I've heard several members say they didn't vote Janney (whom I've always liked and hope she wins), and the chatter I heard toward when ballots were due was more for Metcalf than for any other aspect of Lady Bird, including Gerwig or Screenplay. Will she win ala Marcia Gay Harden in Pollock? Maybe it's wishful thinking of seeing an upset because Metcalf embodies everything a girl has endured with her mom, but it could happen. 

7--And how the hell has Gary Oldman not won an Oscar nor had more nomination by now?

8--If there are a few upsets, think Russia had anything to do with it? 

9--Should be a fun show. And the team of Jennifer Lawrence and Jodie Foster presenting Best Actor in lieu of Casey Affleck (who had no business winning last year anyway) is a class act. And will be interesting to see what politics pop loose via acceptance speeches and such. 

10--Finally, I said after the nominations that I thought there would not be a Picture/Director split, even with this volatile year. Any film could pop loose because we don't know if voters even ranked all the nominated films. I said it would be The Shape of Water/Del Toro, and I still favor Shape because I flipped a coin. 

Enough. Here are my predictions, with my upsets:

Best Picture: The Shape of Water
upset:

Best Actor: Gary Oldman
upset: Timothee Chalamet

Best Actress: Frances McDormand
upset: Saoirse Ronan

Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell
upset: Christopher Plummer

Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney
upset: Laurie Metcalf

Best Original Screenplay: Get Out
upset: Lady Bird

Best Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name
upset: Mudbound

Best Animated Feature: Coco
upset: Loving Vincent

Best Foreign-Language Film: A Fantastic Woman
upset: Loveless

Best Original Score: The Shape of Water
upset: Phantom Thread

Best Original Song: "This is Me" 
upset: "Remember Me"

Best Cinematography: Blade Runner 2049
upset: The Shape of Water

Best Editing: Baby Driver
upset: Dunkirk

Best Production Design: The Shape of Water
upset: Blade Runner 2049

Best Costume Design: Phantom Thread
upset: Victoria and Abdul

Best Sound Editing: Dunkirk
upset: The Shape of Water

Best Sound Mixing: Dunkirk
upset: The Shape of Water

Best Visual Effects: War for the Planet of the Apes
upset: Blade Runner 2049

Best Makeup: The Darkest Hour
upset: Wonder

Best Documentary Feature: Faces Places
upset: Icarus

Best Documentary Short Subject: Heroin(e)
upset: Edith + Eddie

Best Animated Short: Dear Basketball
upset: Lou

Best Live Action Short: DeKalb Elementary
upset: The Silent Child

                                           Wins
The Shape of Water    5
Three Billboards          3
The Darkest Hour        2
Dunkirk                        2
Get Out                       1
Call Me/Name             1
Lady Bird                     0 (Damn it!)

Running Time: 3 Hours 26 Minutes

Them's my predix, and I'm sticking to them. As usual, I'll be venting my annual rite of passage via Facebook and Twitter (@Franster23) in all my perverse glory. No Oscar pool again, saving my energy and funds for my March Madness pool (and you thought the Oscars this year are unpredictable) and to patch a hole in the wall in the event I punch a hole through it tomorrow night. 

Buckle up, peeps! Happy Oscar Sunday, y'all! And, of course, Shalom!

The Shape of Oscar, aka The MS Maven Oscar Nomination Predix Extravaganza 2017

It's the midst of winter, all my sports teams have lost so far, and it's 60 degrees. And as up and down as this season has been, I feel the same about the Oscars this go-round. Many pundits are even saying they aren't feeling it this year. 

This year's Oscar crop has been, to use the vernacular of the millennials, meh overall. I've only been excited in pockets, to the point of when seeing and hearing any Oscar buzz, I'm like, "Oh yeah, that." And I'm not sure if it's the pall that has been cast by the Harvey Weinstein mess or the sexual harassment scandals. It's not helped, but still.  

For me, until I finish plowing said Oscar fields (I only have a few to go, primarily The Florida Project, Phantom Thread [dying to see this one, PT Baby!], and Darkest Hour), there have only been a few films that are as fine as any I've seen in this, or any, year. 

Lady Bird is the cat's ass. I've always liked Greta Gerwig's quirky nature, and here she's in full bloom. She's likely to be up for Director, and I hope the film at least wins Original Screenplay, though that category is a bloodbath. And Saoirse Ronan keeps getting better and better; would love for her to win this year, but I'm thinking she won't. Just hope the film doesn't get hosed. 

And forming the one-two punch of performances of the year along w/ Ronan is Timothee Chalamet in Call Me By Your Name. The film is a slow burn, not sure where it's going but lovely throughout, but Michael Stuhlbarg's talk (think he misses the cut, nom kicks to Armie Hammer) is powerful, but that's tiddlywinks compared to the last shot of the film. Goddamn. The only time in recent memory that a close-up, static shot has been powerful was the last shot in Michael Clayton.

I suspect The Shape of Water will get the most noms and, right now, though many pundits have said they see a Picture/ Director split, I think they both go to this film. Again, went in expecting to like it decently, but, to apply the term to this film that the recently-deceased Dr. Bill Koon, my Southern lit professor at Clemson, applied to Truman Capote's Other Voices, Other Rooms, "It's like Jack and the Fucking Beanstalk." And I would also love to see Sally Hawkins win, but not sure that will happen, either. 

But let me not get ahead of myself. It does seem this time many of us keep looking at what can win more than what will be or not be nominated. It's almost as if we all want the season to be over and done. 

The paradox: After the nominations are announced at 8:22am tomorrow morning (why the odd time? Don't ask, don't know), we have almost six weeks before the actual Oscar ceremony March 4th. Thank the Olympics for that. At least it's not like it was in the 70's and 80's, when the ceremony would be in April. Why not have it two weeks after the SAG Awards, not unlike the two-week break between the playoffs and the Super Bowl? With over a month, there is plenty of time for many a backlash involving various films. Plus, who knows what scandals could bust loose. Calling Olivia Pope...

Here are a few last-minute thoughts before tomorrow morning's new and improved nominations reveal:

1--I don't know how Three Billboards will be handled. Uniformly well-acted, but, hell, Frances McDormand is great by just existing. I'm not ready to call her or Sam Rockwell a lock yet. And I hope Woody Harrelson makes the cut. But the screenplay's a bit of a mess. I do love how the loose ends stay loose, but the last third of the film loses its way. I like the film, and I'm not part of the posse piling onto the film, but it's not solid. 

2--Speaking of screenplays, it's seems a lot of the films just sputter out at the end, like the writers can't find a way to carry a story through or write themselves into a corner. I enjoyed the hell out of I, Tonya (and, yes, Allison Janney, who could read the phonebook and be brilliant, is a lock, Charlie Brown), but the last third of it looses momentum. The film reminded me of Ali, starting w/ tremendous energy then slowly deflating fast. Did Tom Brady have a hand in this? 

3--Will we see diversity come through in the morning?  I think so, but this will be gradual moving forward. As the makeup of the Academy membership evolves, so will the noms and wins. I just hope avenues open for more women and people of color to have their visions come to fruition and get films made, distributed, and promoted.

4--You knew it was coming: Is Cinematographer Roger Deakins ever going to win a goddamned Oscar? This year, he very well may, for Blade Runner 2049 (I see you, Craig Kennedy). Is it his best film? No. Doesn't matter. Just win, baby...

5--And while I'm at it: Is Paul Thomas Anderson ever going to win a goddamned Oscar? If Deakins wins this year, this will be my new mantra. 

6--I don't know what's going to happen w/ Dunkirk. I'm not convinced Christopher Nolan will win Director. Is my bias kicking in? Yes, it is. The man cannot develop characters if his life depends on it. The film will be up in most the technical categories, and it may win a couple. But I think the momentum's died down for the film. I enjoyed it, for a change, but I wasn't bowled over. Now if Nolan wins the DGA, though, things will get interesting. 

7--Get Out is Guess Who's Coming to Dinner? on steroids. Talk about a film that's a flashpoint for the current cultural climate, but, again, not sure what the Academy does w/ it. It will get several noms, but I also wonder if momentum's dwindled.

8--Does James Franco make the cut? Rumblings have been many Academy members who voted for him wanted to rescind their votes, but that's not allowed. I have him in for this reason, but if he is shunned, I expect Denzel Washington squeaks in. I want to say Tom Hanks, but The Post, despite the promotion ad nauseam, came out way late. If he wasn't up for one of his best performances, in Captain Phillips, I don't see it here. And if Meryl Streep should miss the cut, your big surprise of the four acting categories may be Jessica Chastain for Molly's Game, and I say surprise only because it's a bit more crowded than Actor; I hope she makes it. 

Enough already. As usual I don't do the the music, docs, or shorts, but my nomination totals will account for music. but here are The Maven's predix, with three alternates, save for Picture and Makeup, for each category. No more trying to guess now what will win, no more looking at the forrest for the trees, here's what I think will be this year's nominees:

Best Picture
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards
Lady Bird
Dunkirk
Get Out
Call Me By Your Name
The Post
Mudbound
---
I, Tonya
Phantom Thread

Best Director
Guillermo Del Toro
Christopher Nolan
Greta Gerwig
Jordan Peele
Luca Guadagnino
---
Martin McDonagh
Steven Spielberg
PT Anderson

Best Actor
Gary Oldman
Timothee Chalamet
Daniel Day-Lewis
Daniel Kaluuya
James Franco
---
Denzel Washington
Tom Hanks
Jake Gyllenhall

Best Actress
Frances McDormand
Saoirse Ronan
Sally Hawkins
Margot Robbie
Meryl Streep
---
Jessica Chastain
Emma Stone
Kate Winslet

Best Supporting Actor
Sam Rockwell
Richard Jenkins
Armie Hammer
Willem Dafoe
Woody Harrelson
---
Christopher Plummer
Michael Stuhlbarg
Steve Carrell

Best Supporting Actress
Allison Janney
Laurie Metcalf
Mary J. Blige
Octavia Spenser
Holly Hunter
---
Lesley Manville
Tiffany Haddish
Hong Chau

Best Original Screenplay
Lady Bird
Three Billboards
Get Out
The Shape of Water
The Big Sick
---
The Post
Phantom Thread
I, Tonya

Best Adapted Screenplay
Call Me By Your Name
Molly's Game
Mudbound
The Disaster Artist
The Beguiled
---
Wonder
Wonder Woman
Logan

Best Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049
The Shape of Water
Dunkirk
Mudbound 
Call Me By Your Name
---
Darkest Hour
Three Billboards
Phantom Thread

Best Editing
Dunkirk
Baby Driver
The Shape of Water
Get Out
I, Tonya
---
The Post 
Lady Bird
Blade Runner 2049

Best Production Design
The Shape of Water
Phantom Thread
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Beauty and the Beast
---
The Greatest Showman
The Post
Wonder Woman

Best Costume Design
Phantom Thread
Beauty and the Beast
The Greatest Showman
Darkest Hour
The Shape of Water
---
Wonder Woman
Victoria and Abdul
Murder on the Orient Express

Best Sound Editing
Dunkirk
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water
Baby Driver
War for the Planet of the Apes
---
Blade Runner 2049
Beauty and the Beast
Wonder Woman

Best Sound Mixing
Dunkirk
Blade Runner 2049
Baby Driver
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
---
The Greatest Showman
Beauty and the Beast
War for the Planet of the Apes

Best Visual Effects
War for the Planet of the Apes
Blade Runner 2049
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Dunkirk
---
Wonder Woman
Beauty and the Beast

Best Makeup
Darkest Hour
I, Tonya
Wonder
---
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
The Shape of Water

Nominations

The Shape of Water         13

Three Billboards               7
Lady Bird                          6
Dunkirk                             7
Call Me By Your Name    6
Get Out                             5
I, Tonya                            5
The Post                           5
Blade Runner 2049          5

Note: The totals don't line up with my category predix per se.

Them's my Fearless Predix, and The Maven is sticking to them. I have a feeling there will be a major omission or inclusion that many of us Oscar prognosticators are missing. And we may see a surprise that will make us collectively snap-to and wake up (8:22am, really?). And here's hoping we don't have another La La Land Massacre on our hands when the noms are announced...

The Maven's work is done here for another year. Happy Oscar Nomination Day, y'all! And, of course, Shalom, y'all!