Sunday, March 14, 2021

Sisters of Mercy: The Maven's Fearless (and Probably Foolish) Oscar Nominations Predix 2021

Ok, I jinxed it last year. After being quite pleased with the shortened Oscar season and a nice crop of films and wins, we've wound up right back where we've started from. I never imagined doing Oscar prognostication in shorts and the actual ceremony abutting the NBA playoffs. So that damned bug has set us back to Johnny Carson days, when in April you watch the winners revealed and say, That came out last year? Think if last season hadn't been pushed up due to the still-yet-to-be-played Olympic Games. 


Everything is upside down. Eligibility went far past December, and more movies went straight to streaming. I imagine more folks in the general population and Academy members alike probably watched more than in years past. Et tu, Spielberg? 

 The timetable for awards season is askew, making for a lot of second-guessing with these noms. It's hard to tell what's been hot or not, and it feels like the ballots were only out for about three days. So anything could happen this go-round, happily. Even #FilmTwitter has been calmer than usual, but I bet all hell breaks loose after tomorrow morning. This time it'll be a nice distration from the pandemic and politics. But this is one time I've been overthinking everything in trying to pull these predix together. It doesn't help that college hoops is compounding this, as well as Daylight Savings Time. Talk about Madness! 

 Here are some elements I'm still puzzling out: 

 1-There are some films I think have lost quite a bit of steam in the major categories, including Mank, Da 5 Bloods, and The Father, and more for me in the acting categories than anywhere. I'm not convinced Gary Oldman nor Amanda Seyfried make the cut now, or even David Fincher for Director, though the Academy loves movies about movies, so there's that. I think it will get a slew of technical nods, though. I'm afraid Bloods could be shut out, and The Father feels like it peaked too early. 

 2-The one category I've agonized over is Supporting Actress. It's a bloodbath. Talk about peaking early, is it possible Glenn Close misses? She's the best element of Hillbilly Elegy (and people who know me know my problems w/ the book and Vance, but I do think the movie is better and, after a very uneven first third, once it gets its footing it's not bad), but, again, it feels like it came out two years ago. I think at this point Jodie Foster gets Seyfried's spot--I think. I even want to change my picks again just writing this. Does Coleman miss? Youn? 

 3-Minari will do well, but not sure about the acting categories. It didn't seem to be prominent as the ballots were out there to me. But then to say any films right now in this season are on the downturn is a bit of a non-starter. 

 4-I'm pulling for all things Promising Young Woman, Nomadland, and One Night in Miami, my three favorites of the year. And we may have, hopefully, three Director nominees who are women, which would be pretty damn cool. And in wrestling with this category, I orginally thought Lee Isaac Chung would be the odd-man out, but, and it kills me to say this, I think Emerald Fennell may be the one to not make the cut. I hope I'm wrong. 

 5-Speaking of Nomadland, I love the film is getting a lot of love, but one of the sick ironies is that for possibly the role of her career (next to Fargo), Frances McDormand doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of winning, though the film will probably do quite well with noms and wins. Her win for Three Billboards for #2 was premature. Hers and especially Carey Mulligan's are the performances of the year for me. 

 6-For awhile I thought Viola Davis would her second statue. Also ain't happening. I'll go to my grave saying she should have won for The Help.

7-I hope Regina King makes the Director's cut. For a film that could have taken the easy way out with the conceit, it's markedly unsentimental and even more moving as a result. Everybody loves King, bias aside I think she makes the cut. I just still not sure who doesn't from the five DGA nominees. 

8-Mark Rylance could be the one nobody sees coming. Acting is stacked in The Trial of the Chicago 7, and I hope the film does well across the board (and I thought Sorkin may be the Directing fall guy, but the film is so seamless I think not). Someone suggested three Supporting Actor noms from the film (if you include Frank Langella). Not sure that will happen. Same to be said for Zendaya. She's hot at the moment, but nobody remembers Malcolm and Marie (that was on in the 70's, right?). 

9-I will say if Jared Leto makes the cut I'll lose my shit. I wanted The Little Things to be good, and even Malik and Washington couldn't save it. John Lee Hancock is usually decent, but he wrote himself into a corner. Sorry, but Leto's finger mannerisms that would make Bill Nighy cringe ain't gonna cut it. 

10-I hope The Mauritanian does well. I think Foster's in there at least, but don't be surprised if Tahar Rahim makes the cut. 

11-Think Borat could pull a double for Sacha Baron Cohen? I sure as hell hope Maria Bakalova squeezes in! 

 Enough already. I'm wiped out, by the Covad (as my neighbor's 55-year-old son calls it), lockdown, not being able to barhop, chasing neighborhood bunnies, and dumbasses. As usual, I don't do the docs, shorts, foreign, or music this go-round, but my nomination totals do include music. I have to stop changing my picks, I got nothing else: 

Best Picture 
Nomadland 
The Trial of the Chicago 7 
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom 
Minari 
Promising Young Woman 
One Night in Miami 
Mank 
Sound of Metal 
Judas and the Black. Messiah
 --- 
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm 

Best Director 
Chloe Zhao 
Aaron Sorkin 
Lee Isaac Chung 
Regina King 
David Fincher 
--- 
Emerald Fennell 
Spike Lee 
Shaka King 
Best Actor 
Chadwick Boseman 
Riz Ahmed 
Anthony Hopkins 
Steve Yeun 
Tahar Rahim 
--- 
Delroy Lindo 
Gary Oldman 
Sacha Baron Cohen 

Best Actress 
Carey Mulligan 
Viola Davis 
Frances McDormand 
Vanessa Kirby 
Andra Day 
--- 
Zendaya 
Sophia Loren 
Amy Adams 

Best Supporting Actor 
Daniel Kaluuya 
Leslie Odom, Jr. 
Sacha Baron Cohen 
Paul Raci 
Mark Rylance 
--- 
Alan Kim 
Frank Langella 
Chadwick Boseman 
Best Supporting Actress 
Jodie Foster 
Maria Bakalova 
Glenn Close 
Olivia Coleman 
Yuh-Jung Youn 
--- 
Amanda Seyfried 
Ellen Burstyn 
Helena Zengel 
Best Original Screenplay 
Promising Young Woman 
The Trial of the Chicago 7 
Minari 
Mank 
Judas and the Black Messiah 
--- 
Sound of Metal 
Soul 
Da 5 Bloods 
Best Adapted Screenplay 
Nomadland 
One Night in Miami 
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom 
The Father 
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm 
--- 
The Mauritanian 
News of the World 
The White Tiger 

Best Cinematography 
Nomadland 
Mank 
News of the World 
The Trial of the Chicago 7 
Judas and the Black Messiah 
--- 
Tenet 
Cherry 
Da 5 Bloods 

Best Editing 
The Trial of the Chicago 7 
Nomadland 
Sound of Metal 
Promising Young Woman 
One Night in Miami 
--- 
Minari 
 Mank 
The Father 

Best Production Design 
Mank 
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom 
News of the World 
The Trial of the Chicago 7 
Tenet 
--- 
Mulan 
The Midnight Sky 
Emma 

Best Costume Design 
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom 
Mank  
Emma 
News of the World 
Promising Young Woman --- 
Mulan 
The Trial of the Chicago 7 
One Night in Miami 

Best Sound 
Sound of Metal 
Soul 
News of the World 
The Trial of the Chicago 7 
Greyhound 
--- 
Tenet 
Mank 
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom 

Best Visual Effects 
Tenet 
The Midnight Sky 
Mulan 
Welcome to Chechyna 
Mank 
--- 
The One and Only Ivan 
Birds of Prey 
Soul 

Best Makeup 
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom 
Hillbilly Elegy 
Mank 
Birds of Prey 
Pinocchio 
--- 
Emma 
Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey 
The Little Things 

Nominations 
The Trial of the Chicago 7 10 
Mank 9 
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom 8 
Sound of Metal 7 
Nomadland 7 
Minari 6 
One Night in Miami 6 
Promising Young Woman 5 
News of the World 5
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm 3 

Them's my predix, and I'm sticking to them. The usual surprises and ommissions will happen, and in this pandemic year they could be rampant. The cruelty come 8:30am in the morning on top of the time change is not lost on me, and I blame that for any misfires here. 
My work is done here til April 25th, yikes! Follow me on the socials for the usual bitchfest and kvetching.  

Happy Oscar Nominations Day, y'all! And, of course, Shalom and Season's Screenings!