For years I've yawped about how the Oscar season should be shortened, primarily because who the hell remembers movies from the previous year in April? This year was shorter but it's felt like the longest one yet. Lesson learned, be careful what you wish for.
As usual for me, the film year ended with a handful of really fine (Can You Ever Forgive Me? (which, as Sasha Stone rightly said, should have been up for Best Picture), BlacKkKansman, A Star is Born, If Beale Street Could Talk) and fun (Bohemian Rhapsody, Isle of Dogs) films. Some had nice performances in mediocre films (Green Book and Vice). In other words, same shit, different year. (I still say television at the moment is better collectively than film, but that's an argument for another day).
So tonight I think in terms of winners and the show itself anything goes. The sadly now late, great William Goldman famously said about Hollywood, "Nobody knows anything," and this year it's true in spades. Each year we pundits always hope for surprises to shake things up if it happens to be a predictable year. Not this one. This is one year I don't know anything. Too bad Goldman can't see this.
Voting Academy members I know are all over the place with several categories, especially Best Picture. I think this year is a near-turning point because I'm not convinced Roma will win. I say near because there's a camp out there who's opposed to voting for a film you can stream at home; Steven Spielberg popped off that if a film is seen through a streaming service let it be up for an Emmy. I don't agree with this because I do think the way we watch films will shift to more streaming, but, like with every other technical innovation for watching, I don't think this will be the death of seeing movies in theaters. The problem with seeing movies in theaters now is two-fold: one, ticket prices, and two, the "theatrical experience," because of said-technology, is almost dead. Meaning, people come in and get on their phones or act like they're in their living rooms. Folks don't value the experience anymore. I digress, but my point is it may take a couple of years before Hollywood figures out a way to utilize streaming film to maximum effect, aka commodify it. And Spielberg will change his tune.
Back to Best Picture, I'm also not convinced Green Book will win, either. It's pedestrian with two performances that save the film, and I won't be upset if Mahershala Ali wins because, as I've said, he's now in Denzel territory and I loves me some Ali because I've followed him from before House of Cards; again he's better in True Detective (memo to HBO: why did you schedule the season finale on Oscar Sunday? My DVR hates you). But I know a lot of folks who have problems w/ the film, but some also see the film as reflecting our times. Sorry, but Peter Farrelly (love his comedies) couldn't hold Barry Jenkins's jockstrap because the latter's film, If Beale Street Should Talk, based on James Baldwin's book published over 40 years ago, speaks greater to today's current cultural climate (and should have been up, along with Can You Ever Forgive Me? for Picture).
So where does that leave us? My gut has said (and this year my gut was wrong with some of the nominations) Black Panther will win because it straddles the two elements that Picture represents (a powerful message and good storytelling) or whats to represent (a blockbuster film), which the Academy hasn't had in eons. This would be the perfect film for these pedigrees. I would love to see BlacKkKlansman or A Star is Born (man, talk about the air going out of a film!), but it won't happen. Some have said Bohemian Rhapsody, but there are too many folks who are upset about Bryan Singer but not with Rami Malek, so he will win but the film won't (it'll win for one or both Sound categories). And Vice will have to settle for Hair/Makeup because Adam McKay got too cute here; the performances are solid, but I can't see anyone winning because they were enjoyable, more than the film, but not earth-shattering. Some fun moments and the storytelling device is brilliant, but it doesn't hold together. Plus, I can't see Amy Adams finally winning for this film (but Meryl Streep did win for The Iron Lady, far from her best role, so there's that). Loves me some Christian Bale but this isn't his best, either. I don't see him beating Malek.
Now, all of this said, should Roma NOT win Foreign-Language Film (and there have been upsets aplenty in this category), look out! I don't think it will win both film categories, but I also don't see it not winning FLF. Maybe Cuaron win Director and Cinematography (love the film, not the year's best, and a lot of the shots in it remind me of Fellini, as if watching a black-and-white Amarcord) but nothing else.
The other conundrum is if Mahershala Ali wins Supporting Actor that may be Green Book's only Oscar. He seemed a lock most of the season, but the bulk of Oscar voters I know indicated they voted for Richard E. Grant. There has been a last-minute surge for Can You Ever Forgive Me?, happily, and I don't know anyone who has voted Ali, unless they're lying, and they do lie for a living. The blind Oscar ballots that come out around this time is ripe for this. Ali would be a safe way to vote for the film, but my gut has been saying Grant. Will I pull the trigger? I'm still deciding as I type this. I'm cool w/ Ali but I want Grant and am trying to put bias aside.
Actress will go to Close (deservedly), but any one of the five nominees could win and I would be happy. A solid year for women. And Regina King will finally get some dap, an actress who has been so underrated over the years, despite her Emmy wins.
I would be thrilled if Spike Lee wins for Director, but he'll win for Adapted Screenplay (I think). I would also be thrilled with Can You Ever Forgive Me? (and it could upset) or If Beale Street Could Talk. And Lady Gaga better win for "Shallow." She was hosed before in this category and am still pissed; do you even remember that Sam Smith song and that it was from a Bond film? Didn't think so. Now watch Diane Warren finally win.
And speaking of hosed, that's what Bradley Cooper is this year, sadly. He's almost in Tom Cruise territory in terms of having industry respect but no Oscar. Will they Argo Cooper? Don't think so. And for the record, Jay Cassidy was robbed not being up for Editing.
All of this is conjecture because every year we fall into the trap of thinking folks get together as if by committee and vote for what's "best," when the opposite is often true and voters back into getting it right. I think we may see some upsets because it may be a case of "Wait, I thought you were voting for..."
And I haven't even mention the show itself. Enough has been said about it. I think it will be fun as well as frustrating. We watch not for things to go smoothly but for a train wreck or two, and there will be a couple. And the producers can carp all they want to, but the show will not be at three hours Give it up guys, you can deal with another 20 minutes. But if they don't try to revive Rob Lowe and Snow White from the last time the show was hostless with James Franco and Elsa from Frozen, we're good.
And my new mantra, now that Roger Deakins finally won last year: When is Wes Anderson going to win a goddamned Oscar? (Bradley Baby is still a bit young to qualify for this mantra, but he's close).
So now there's nothing to be done but to sit back and watch the fur (or faux furs) fly. Here are my predictions with upsets. I don't know anything so here goes:
Picture: Black Panther
upset: Roma
Director: Alfonso Cuaron
upset: Spike Lee
Actor: Rami Malek
upset: Christian Bale
Actress: Glenn Close
upset: Lady Gaga
Supporting Actor: Richard E. Grant (pulled the trigger, on a coin flip)
upset: Mahershala Ali
Supporting Actress: Regina King
upset: Rachel Weisz
Original Screenplay: The Favourite
upset: Green Book
Adapted Screenplay: BlacKkKlansman
upset: Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Foreign Film: Roma
upset: Cold War
Animated Feature: Spiderman: Into the Spider-Verse
upset: Isle of Dogs
Original Song: "Shallow"--A Star is Born
upset: "I'll Fight"--RBG
Score: BlacKkKlansman
upset: If Beale Street Could Talk
Cinematography: Roma
upset: Cold War
Editing: Bohemian Rhapsody
upset: BlacKkKlansman
Production Design: The Favourite
upset: Black Panther
Costume Design: Black Panther
upset: The Favourite
Sound Editing: First Man
upset: Bohemian Rhapsody
Sound Mixing: Bohemian Rhapsody
upset: A Star is Born
Visual Effects: Avengers: Infinity War
upset: First Man
Hair/Makeup: Vice
upset: Mary, Queen of Scots
Documentary Feature: Free Solo
upset: Minding the Gap
Documentary Short: Period. End of Sentence
upset: Black Sheep
Animated Short: Bao
upset: Animal Behaviour
Live-Action Short: Marguerite
upset: Skin
Wins
Roma 3
Bohemian Rhapsody. 3
BlacKkKlansman. 2
Black Panther. 2
If Beale Street/Talk. 1
Green Book. 1
Vice 1
Running Time: 3 Hours 16 Minutes
My work is done here. Them's my predix, and I'm sticking to them. Per usual The Maven will be venting the annual rite of passage on the socials (@Franster23 on Twitter), so follow along or mute me til Tuesday. Again, no Oscar pool to save for the March Madness brackets and copious amounts of alcohol in case of emergency tonight.
Happy Oscar Sunday, peeps! And, of course, Shalom!
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