#OscarsSoPredictable: The MS Maven's Fearless Oscar Predix 2016

We are currently in a weird calm before the Oscar storm, or lack thereof methinks, a weird calm of the naysayers who are taking their talent and going home because they can't get a trophy and of most of the nominees who seem to be playing possum. This is one time that we haven't see a whole hell of a lot of campaigning or much buzz, thus, weird. 

Now, is some of this because of the #OscarsSoWhite controversy that has flooded the media? Somewhat. And this is the first time I can remember when I've heard more folks say they are more interested in the actual show than who wins. Many expect Chris Rock to do something that will rock the house in regards to the lack-of diversity-issue, and if he's true to form, this should be a fun show, hopefully.  

What I hope doesn't happen is that this becomes a political platform because of the controversy, w/ presenters speaking their peace. I don't mind political statements on stage, especially from winners since this may be the only time he or she can speak his or her peace. But I'm still jaded from last year's ceremony which was just terribly dreadful, seeming to be more about music than movies. Hey, AMPAS, you want to solve the problem of decreasing viewership? Try focusing once again on the films themselves, showing clips or montages of the year's films. This is supposed to be a celebration of what AMPAS wants to represent moviewise to the world, so step up your game. 

The one point I'll make about the lack of diversity w/ the Awards is this: A mediocre film knows no boundaries in terms of race or ethnicity. A shitty movie is a shitty movie, no matter who is in it or behind it, and trust me, there are many a mediocre film up this year. Quit playing it safe in terms of whom you nominate and trying to represent what the world wants to see (and box office does seem to be driven more by the foreign market). Yes, it's nice Sylvester Stallone is 99.9% certain he'll walk away w/ Best Supporting Actor, and he was actually good in Creed, but this is the first time in awhile since we have had the "career award," but Sly does make a shit ton of money for the suits (well, he used to, anyway). 

Conversely, you also have Room, which is this year's true indie film, the little film that could because of word-of-mouth on the film festival circuit and due to Brie Larson's career-making performance (and Jacob Trembly, if we had been in the old nominations model of having the deadlines closer to the end of January, I think he would have been up for Supporting Actor since he's this year's mascot). It's the law of averages here, the lava-flows of big films distributed by major studios or boutique outlets (does that term still exist?) w/ a  nice sputter of a film here or there. But diversity? Start w/ the inbred, hellbent-on-making-money Oscar politics first. It's like the politics in my English professor circles, dealing w/ works of old dead white men, aka The Canon, versus more contemporary, challenging works. When the old farts kick, change will occur. 

That said, unless Rock can light a a fire to wake the crowd, this year's ceremony will be boring as hell. I say this because practically all the major categories this go-round are locks, save for Picture, Director, and Supporting Actress. Plus, this year's film crop isn't particularly memorable. Think Spotlight will be remembered along w/ All the President's Men? Is Mad Max: Fury Road just Mister Toad's Wild Ride in disguise? The Revenant will be relevant a few years from now or just hot at the moment because Leo got dirty? Of the films nominated, The Big Short is one that will slowly catch up to folks and is the most unique film of the lot, and I hope it wins. Brooklyn is just lovely but has no traction, plus Saoirse Ronan will be w/ us for some time. Ditto Larson, and Room is a film, though along w/ The Big Short is my year's best, that cannot succeed without Larson's performance, and she knocks it out of the park. Thus, I still think Picture and Director split, and I don't see how anyone but Alejandro Innaritu wins Director, primarily for the challenges of making his film, one that is admirable but not memorable. Same to be said for Mad Max: Fury Road, a popcorn film at best, but I love me some George Miller, but the film I keep going back to from him is Lorenzo's Oil all these years later. 

Supporting Actress may give us the hiccup of the evening, for I think any one of the five could win. Most expect Alicia Vikander to win for The Danish Girl, but quick, name five folks who have seen it. She's fine in the film, and goddamn it's pedestrian as hell, but she should have been up for Ex Machina. Again, she's just getting warmed up and can't wait to see what's next. Rachel McAdams is the heart of Spotlight, I'm thrilled Jennifer Jason Leigh finally got a nomination, albeit for being the best element in Tarantino's weakest film. But I think Kate Winslet could upset here for Steve Jobs, a film I didn't expect too much from since it's from Danny Boyle, but I was pleasantly surprised, largely due to Winslet. Hope this isn't a case of me grasping at straws here for some surprise during the night, and this category tends to be the one to do the trick. After all, remember Marisa Tomei. 

Funny, for a meh lot of films this year I've bloated longer than Donald Trump during a CNN debate. So enough already. Here's my predictions, w/ the upsets:

Best Picture: The Big Short
upset: The Revenant

Best Director: Alejandro Innaritu
upset: George Miller

Best Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio
upset: Michael Fassbender

Best Actress: Brie Larson
upset: Charlotte Rampling 

Best Supporting Actor: Sylvester Stallone
upset: Tom Hardy

Best Supporting Actress: Alicia Vikander
Upset: Kate Winslet

Best Original Screenplay: Spotlight
Upset: Straight Outta Compton

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Big Short
Upset: Room

Best Animated Feature: Inside Out
Upset: Anomalisa

Best Foreign-Language Film: Son of Saul
Upset: Embrace of the Serpent

Best Original Score: The Hateful Eight
Upset: Carol

Best Original Song: "Til It Happens to You"--The Hunting Ground
Upset: "Earned It"--Fifty Shades of Grey

Best Cinematography: The Revenant
Upset: Sicario (Is Deakens ever going to win?)

Best Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road
Upset: The Big Short

Best Production Design: Mad Max: Fury Road
Upset: The Revenant

Best Costume Design: Carol
Upset: Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Sound Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road
Upset: The Revenant

Best Sound Mixing: Mad Max: Fury Road
Upset: The Revenant

Best Visual Effects: Mad Max: Fury Road
Upset: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Makeup: The Revenant
Upset: Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Documentary Feature: Amy
Upset: What Happened, Miss Simone?

Best Documentary Short Subject: Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
Upset: Body Team 12

Best Animated Short Film: Sanjay's Super Team
Upset: World of Tomorrow

Best Live-Action Short: Shok
Upset: Ave Maria

Wins

The Revenant                 4

Mad Max: Fury Road     5

The Big Short                 2

Spotlight                         1

Room                              1

Running Time: 3 hours 16 minutes

Them's my predix, and I'm sticking to them. As usual, I'll be venting my annual rite of Oscar passage via Facebook and Twitter in all my perverse glory. No pool again this year, saving my money for my March Madness pool, which will be wilder than the Oscars this time. And here's hoping Chris Rock streaks!

Happy Oscar Sunday, y'all! And, of course, shalom…