Most people watch for train wrecks on the Red Carpet and the show itself, and there will be several, along with some drag races (listening race fans?). I'm the geek who lives for the politics of the nominations, voting, and winners. Yes, politics is never far away in the Maven's line of thinking.
With that said, here are my fearless (and maybe even foolish) predictions. The following picks, along with their upset for each category (and I think there may be a couple but more on that in a minute), so here goes:
Best Picture: Argo
upset: Silver Linings Playbook
Best Director: Steven Spielberg
upset: David O. Russell
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis
upset: Bradley Cooper
Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence
upset: Emmanuelle Riva
Best Supporting Actor: Robert DeNiro
upset: Tommy Lee Jones
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway
upset: Sally Field
Best Original Screenplay: Zero Dark Thirty
upset: Django Unchained (the D is silent)
Best Adapted Screenplay: Silver Linings Playbook
upset: Argo
Best Animated Feature: Wreck-It Ralph
upset: The Pirates!
Best Foreign-Language Film: Amour
upset: Kon-Tiki
Best Original Score: Life of Pi
upset: Lincoln
Best Original Song: "Skyfall"
upset: "Everybody Needs a Best Friend"
Best Cinematography: Life of Pi
upset: Skyfall (will Roger Deakins finally win?)
Best Editing: Argo
upset: Silver Linings Playbook
Best Art Direction: Les Miserables
upset: Life of Pi
Best Costume Design: Anna Karenina
upset: Les Miserables
Best Sound Mixing: Les Miserables
upset: Argo
Best Sound Editing: Zero Dark Thirty
upset: Argo
Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi
upset: The Hobbit
Best Makeup: Les Miserables
upset: The Hobbit
Best Documentary Feature: Searching for Sugar Man
upset: The Gatekeepers (if Jews are involved, they always win)
Best Documentary Short Subject: Monday's at Racine
upset: Inocente
Best Live-Action Short: Asad
upset: Death of a Shadow
Best Animated Short: Paperman
upset: Adam and Dog
The Wins
(Note: Win totals won't necessarily match my predix)
Argo 4
Lincoln 3
Zero Dark Thirty 2
Silver Linings Playbook 3
Les Miserables 3
Life of Pi 3
Amour 1
There are several burning questons that have cropped up in this last week building to the big show. Let me try to cut through the media mania:
1--Is it possible we'll have two actors to win three Oscars tonight? I hope so but would prefer Washington and DeNiro rather than Day-Lewis. The latter's was his weakest performance in his career (you gonna say he's better in it than There Will Be Blood? Didn't think so. It's a good performance but I don't think Lincoln will be remembered in 20 years. Do you remember Slumdog Millionaire or The Artist? Didn't think so. Don't hate Lincoln, like it, dig the politics in it, but there are too many glaring historical errors (don't even say one word about Argo and Canada; To switch the states who voted from IL to CT is pretty egregious), and there have been a ton of articles this past week about historical accuracy. I fully understand elements have to be dramatized to make it a film but still. And for the record, I don't think Field will make it a three x three night. They already liked here, really, really liked her twice.
2--Never underestimate the power of Harvey Weinstein. His well-oiled machine keeps working like a whore on a streetcorner, and this year he's going all-in on Silver Linings Playbook moreso than Django Unchained (the D is silent), and this is a good bet (I'm still lukewarm about Django, but Christoph Waltz is the best thing in the film). And deservedly going all-in because this is an important film ("a message film" as they say in the media?) about how we deal with mental illness. Harvey hit it hard while the ballots were out, w/ most the cast appearing on about every show except a guest appearance on NCIS. I just hope David O. Russell wins either Director or Adapted Screenplay, for he's been around forever, well respected, and made this film because his son has suffered from mental illness. (Sidebar: the late, great Anthony Minghella and Sydney Pollack were going to make the film until their untimely demises. I think they would have done swell, too). I think Lawrence and DeNiro will be it's Oscars. If the film wins Editing, lookout! And it deserves this as well, although I think Argo will win this and it richly deserve it. I'm not much for musical interludes in films per they are usually space-filler, but the dance sequence is the best I've seen since the one in Summer of Sam, for a lot you need to know about the characters are in the dance, and it's quite moving, actually (yes, The Maven has a heart, sometimes). I'll leave it with this observation: If Harvey can help The Artist win, well...
3--Speaking of shifts, is anyone buying that Emmanuelle Riva will upset for Best Actress? She does deserve it, and like I mentioned before, any one of the five nominees in this category and Supporting Actor could win and I wouldn't be upset (still want Lawrence to win and my vote in Supporting Actor would go to Philip Seymour Hoffman for the peformance of his career; his last scene in the film blew me away in a way I didn't expect. It's a peformance not unlike Robert Duvall in The Apostle or Christian Bale in The Fighter, where something snapped loose that allowed the actors to show elements of themselves which kicked things up a notch. Do want DeNiro to win per his best performance since Raging Bull, the best peformance I've seen, male or female). Some are bringing up the old argument I've not heard in years, that a Riva win would be a career-capping Oscar. I hate those per award the peformance, not the career. She's great, she deserves it. But not sure. So it begs the question: Is Best Actress the new upset catergory, especially after last year's win by Streep (she was good, The Iron Lady so bad it almost ruined her performance. And I'll go to my grave insisting Viola Davis should have won, but let's not go there, I'm having a good day...). I hope not.
4--Nobody has seen Life of Pi so how will it win Director?
5--Still not seen Les Miserables. Plan on it, and despite my love for Russell Crowe, Anne Hathaway, and Hugh Jackman, I'm still trying to get enough beer together to watch the Academy screener...
6--Seth MacFarlane should be fun. If he's as snarky as he was when he announced the nominations, hardballs should be thrown, and that's what I'm hoping for. It should be Billy Crystal till he drops, and why the hell did he disappear in the second half of the show last year? Why even have a host then? I hope they don't do this to Seth baby.
7--I think the show itself will be a train wreck. The focus is on musicals, the producers are new and don't seem to know what the hell they are doing. The Chicago reunion will be nice, but lots of alcohol will be consumed. Gil Cates will be rolling in his grave methinks...
8--Ultimately, the final burning question: Could Argo be upset for Picture? Yes it can but is unlikely. But then remember when The Pianist had the mini-sweep when no one expected it? Still wondering if this can happen this year as well. Keep in mind, those were the 2003 Oscars for 2002 films, and it's 10 years hence, so... Silver Linings Playbook anyone?
Enough already. I'll be posting on Facebook and Tweeting like crazy (@Franster23), and as usual I calls em as I sees em. This is the first year I've not had money on the awards in over a decade. I hope I'm not wrong in my predix but hope I am wrong for my personal favorites. Here's to hoping you survive the telecast.
Happy Oscars, y'all! And, of course, shalom...
