This year's Oscar crop has been, to use the vernacular of the millennials, meh overall. I've only been excited in pockets, to the point of when seeing and hearing any Oscar buzz, I'm like, "Oh yeah, that." And I'm not sure if it's the pall that has been cast by the Harvey Weinstein mess or the sexual harassment scandals. It's not helped, but still.
For me, until I finish plowing said Oscar fields (I only have a few to go, primarily The Florida Project, Phantom Thread [dying to see this one, PT Baby!], and Darkest Hour), there have only been a few films that are as fine as any I've seen in this, or any, year.
Lady Bird is the cat's ass. I've always liked Greta Gerwig's quirky nature, and here she's in full bloom. She's likely to be up for Director, and I hope the film at least wins Original Screenplay, though that category is a bloodbath. And Saoirse Ronan keeps getting better and better; would love for her to win this year, but I'm thinking she won't. Just hope the film doesn't get hosed.
And forming the one-two punch of performances of the year along w/ Ronan is Timothee Chalamet in Call Me By Your Name. The film is a slow burn, not sure where it's going but lovely throughout, but Michael Stuhlbarg's talk (think he misses the cut, nom kicks to Armie Hammer) is powerful, but that's tiddlywinks compared to the last shot of the film. Goddamn. The only time in recent memory that a close-up, static shot has been powerful was the last shot in Michael Clayton.
I suspect The Shape of Water will get the most noms and, right now, though many pundits have said they see a Picture/ Director split, I think they both go to this film. Again, went in expecting to like it decently, but, to apply the term to this film that the recently-deceased Dr. Bill Koon, my Southern lit professor at Clemson, applied to Truman Capote's Other Voices, Other Rooms, "It's like Jack and the Fucking Beanstalk." And I would also love to see Sally Hawkins win, but not sure that will happen, either.
But let me not get ahead of myself. It does seem this time many of us keep looking at what can win more than what will be or not be nominated. It's almost as if we all want the season to be over and done.
The paradox: After the nominations are announced at 8:22am tomorrow morning (why the odd time? Don't ask, don't know), we have almost six weeks before the actual Oscar ceremony March 4th. Thank the Olympics for that. At least it's not like it was in the 70's and 80's, when the ceremony would be in April. Why not have it two weeks after the SAG Awards, not unlike the two-week break between the playoffs and the Super Bowl? With over a month, there is plenty of time for many a backlash involving various films. Plus, who knows what scandals could bust loose. Calling Olivia Pope...
Here are a few last-minute thoughts before tomorrow morning's new and improved nominations reveal:
1--I don't know how Three Billboards will be handled. Uniformly well-acted, but, hell, Frances McDormand is great by just existing. I'm not ready to call her or Sam Rockwell a lock yet. And I hope Woody Harrelson makes the cut. But the screenplay's a bit of a mess. I do love how the loose ends stay loose, but the last third of the film loses its way. I like the film, and I'm not part of the posse piling onto the film, but it's not solid.
2--Speaking of screenplays, it's seems a lot of the films just sputter out at the end, like the writers can't find a way to carry a story through or write themselves into a corner. I enjoyed the hell out of I, Tonya (and, yes, Allison Janney, who could read the phonebook and be brilliant, is a lock, Charlie Brown), but the last third of it looses momentum. The film reminded me of Ali, starting w/ tremendous energy then slowly deflating fast. Did Tom Brady have a hand in this?
3--Will we see diversity come through in the morning? I think so, but this will be gradual moving forward. As the makeup of the Academy membership evolves, so will the noms and wins. I just hope avenues open for more women and people of color to have their visions come to fruition and get films made, distributed, and promoted.
4--You knew it was coming: Is Cinematographer Roger Deakins ever going to win a goddamned Oscar? This year, he very well may, for Blade Runner 2049 (I see you, Craig Kennedy). Is it his best film? No. Doesn't matter. Just win, baby...
5--And while I'm at it: Is Paul Thomas Anderson ever going to win a goddamned Oscar? If Deakins wins this year, this will be my new mantra.
6--I don't know what's going to happen w/ Dunkirk. I'm not convinced Christopher Nolan will win Director. Is my bias kicking in? Yes, it is. The man cannot develop characters if his life depends on it. The film will be up in most the technical categories, and it may win a couple. But I think the momentum's died down for the film. I enjoyed it, for a change, but I wasn't bowled over. Now if Nolan wins the DGA, though, things will get interesting.
7--Get Out is Guess Who's Coming to Dinner? on steroids. Talk about a film that's a flashpoint for the current cultural climate, but, again, not sure what the Academy does w/ it. It will get several noms, but I also wonder if momentum's dwindled.
8--Does James Franco make the cut? Rumblings have been many Academy members who voted for him wanted to rescind their votes, but that's not allowed. I have him in for this reason, but if he is shunned, I expect Denzel Washington squeaks in. I want to say Tom Hanks, but The Post, despite the promotion ad nauseam, came out way late. If he wasn't up for one of his best performances, in Captain Phillips, I don't see it here. And if Meryl Streep should miss the cut, your big surprise of the four acting categories may be Jessica Chastain for Molly's Game, and I say surprise only because it's a bit more crowded than Actor; I hope she makes it.
Enough already. As usual I don't do the the music, docs, or shorts, but my nomination totals will account for music. but here are The Maven's predix, with three alternates, save for Picture and Makeup, for each category. No more trying to guess now what will win, no more looking at the forrest for the trees, here's what I think will be this year's nominees:
Best Picture
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards
Lady Bird
Dunkirk
Get Out
Call Me By Your Name
The Post
Mudbound
---
I, Tonya
Phantom Thread
Best Director
Guillermo Del Toro
Christopher Nolan
Greta Gerwig
Jordan Peele
Luca Guadagnino
---
Martin McDonagh
Steven Spielberg
PT Anderson
Best Actor
Gary Oldman
Timothee Chalamet
Daniel Day-Lewis
Daniel Kaluuya
James Franco
---
Denzel Washington
Tom Hanks
Jake Gyllenhall
Best Actress
Frances McDormand
Saoirse Ronan
Sally Hawkins
Margot Robbie
Meryl Streep
---
Jessica Chastain
Emma Stone
Kate Winslet
Best Supporting Actor
Sam Rockwell
Richard Jenkins
Armie Hammer
Willem Dafoe
Woody Harrelson
---
Christopher Plummer
Michael Stuhlbarg
Steve Carrell
Best Supporting Actress
Allison Janney
Laurie Metcalf
Mary J. Blige
Octavia Spenser
Holly Hunter
---
Lesley Manville
Tiffany Haddish
Hong Chau
Best Original Screenplay
Lady Bird
Three Billboards
Get Out
The Shape of Water
The Big Sick
---
The Post
Phantom Thread
I, Tonya
Best Adapted Screenplay
Call Me By Your Name
Molly's Game
Mudbound
The Disaster Artist
The Beguiled
---
Wonder
Wonder Woman
Logan
Best Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049
The Shape of Water
Dunkirk
Mudbound
Call Me By Your Name
---
Darkest Hour
Three Billboards
Phantom Thread
Best Editing
Dunkirk
Baby Driver
The Shape of Water
Get Out
I, Tonya
---
The Post
Lady Bird
Blade Runner 2049
Best Production Design
The Shape of Water
Phantom Thread
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Beauty and the Beast
---
The Greatest Showman
The Post
Wonder Woman
Best Costume Design
Phantom Thread
Beauty and the Beast
The Greatest Showman
Darkest Hour
The Shape of Water
---
Wonder Woman
Victoria and Abdul
Murder on the Orient Express
Best Sound Editing
Dunkirk
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water
Baby Driver
War for the Planet of the Apes
---
Blade Runner 2049
Beauty and the Beast
Wonder Woman
Best Sound Mixing
Dunkirk
Blade Runner 2049
Baby Driver
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
---
The Greatest Showman
Beauty and the Beast
War for the Planet of the Apes
Best Visual Effects
War for the Planet of the Apes
Blade Runner 2049
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Dunkirk
---
Wonder Woman
Beauty and the Beast
Best Makeup
Darkest Hour
I, Tonya
Wonder
---
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
The Shape of Water
Nominations
The Shape of Water 13
Three Billboards 7
Lady Bird 6
Dunkirk 7
Call Me By Your Name 6
Get Out 5
I, Tonya 5
The Post 5
Blade Runner 2049 5
Lady Bird 6
Dunkirk 7
Call Me By Your Name 6
Get Out 5
I, Tonya 5
The Post 5
Blade Runner 2049 5
Note: The totals don't line up with my category predix per se.
Them's my Fearless Predix, and The Maven is sticking to them. I have a feeling there will be a major omission or inclusion that many of us Oscar prognosticators are missing. And we may see a surprise that will make us collectively snap-to and wake up (8:22am, really?). And here's hoping we don't have another La La Land Massacre on our hands when the noms are announced...
The Maven's work is done here for another year. Happy Oscar Nomination Day, y'all! And, of course, Shalom, y'all!
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