The Oscars are finally earlier than normal (I miss you, 2020, before everything went to hell), but what fresh hell is with the scheduling gods laying vengeance upon The Maven, with the trifecta of Oscar Sunday, Selection Sunday, and Springing forward? I'll be all to hell tomorrow on various levels.
In all my years of pontificating and kvetching, this is the quietest Oscar season in recent memory, which is a good thing, as Martha would say. Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett (signing the praises of her fellow nominees along the way), Austin Butler, and Sarah Polley have been everywhere save for the Home Shopping Network and campaigning as if trying to prevent Trump from winning the presidential election again. This cycle has turned into a blast and a half, the best since the 2020 Oscars before everything stopped in its tracks. Nothing wrong with a big lovefest at the moment. We need it.
Notice the one nominee missing on the circuit: Andrea Riseborough. I think the Academy calling shenanigans on the word-of-mouth campaign pre-nominations, which is BS because this happens all the time, but they got "caught." Does anyone not remember many in the actor's branch using social media and a whisper campaign to push Bradley Cooper for American Sniper? And it's a shame because Riseborough is exceptional, and I hope everyone sees To Leslie despite the Oscars. But she's been nowhere, so I went from her possibly upsetting to she's out.
The nadir between when the ballots are due and the ceremony is the worst, with everyone second-guessing everything. Caught myself doing it as well today, but enough. Nothing to be done now, for it's all over but the shouting.
Here are a few last-minute observations:
1--Sarah Polley is finally going to win the goddamned Oscar! She's been in the industry forever, has been through hell, and has built a pretty damned cool reputation behind the camera. The industry loves her, and she richly deserves it. And how did she miss on Director? If she doesn't win, I'll riot!
2--I think Everything Everywhere will have the most wins with six, followed by Elvis with four. Or are folks sick of musical biopics? Remember Bohemian Rhapsody? And I don't see Brendan Fraser winning. I just don't.
3--I think this is a spread-the-love year, but Babylon, The Fabelmans, TAR, and possibly The Banshees of Inisherin will be hosed. I hope not the latter, but Original Screenplay may be its only award. There's been a late surge for Condon, and that may be the night's surprise, unless Barry Keoghan upset in Supporting Actor, but I think Quan may be the only true lock at this point.
4--Elvis is terrible and wildly uneven, almost unwatchable in the first half, but the second half of the film I think will net Butler the win. He saves that film,carries that film, and he's the cat's ass in it.
5--Actress is a bloodbath. I can't wait to see Michelle Yeoh finally win, but I won't be upset if Blanchett takes it, either, exactly. But I don't see how Yeoh doesn't win at this point.
6--And what to make of Supporting Actress. I thought Angela Bassett was a lock (and she should have won for What's Love Got To Do with It?; it's still one of the great female performances but nobody was beating Holly Hunter that year. It sucks, like this year, when there are so many cool performances stacked against one another. But I called Jamie Lee Curtis before SAG, and if about 10k actors versus close to 4k in the Academy voted Curtis, then what? Do I think there could be some vote-splitting this time? Yes, actually, I do. I know it's in the nadir when all the pundits claim this, when many say this when the categories are essentially settled, but this year may be a sneaky one. So would Condon be the only Banshees winner? We'll see!
The Last-Minute Gut-Check:
Top Gun for Picture
Colin Farrell for Actor
Andrea Riseborough for Actress (keep hope alive!)
Condon for Supporting Actress
"Hold My Hand" for Song
Enough already! I'm worn out from grading and the ensuing time-change, so here is how I think the wins will go down:
