Monday, January 23, 2023

Erin Go Blah! The Maven's Fearless (and Probably Foolish) Oscar Nomination Predix 2023

Now we are back to our regularly-scheduled Oscar Season, what with the pandemic largely behind us and no Olympics on the horizon. The Ceremony will be on March 12th, back to a more reasonable time instead at the Fourth of July. But nomination day has blindsided me!

I have been out of the loop this go-round, partially because I taught six classes this fall, but largely because I haven't felt the urgency with this possible crop. There are some exceptions, though, but otherwise I'm still plowing through Oscar bait. 

But I have been in touch w/ several members to get a bede on how things may go. A few quick observations, as usual:

1--The Fablemans, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and, yes, Top Gun: Maverick and Avatar: The Way of Water will get a lot of noms. We've seen this Spielberg movie before, and I sense that Hollywood is settling into a feel-good movie groove for a bit. 

2--That said, Everything Everywhere is not like anything I, or the Academy, has seen before, so it's a wild card, save for Ke Huy Quan being a near-certainty to win Supporting Actor. 

3--Speaking of actors, at the moment I see three of the four acting categories as probably locks: Cate Blanchett (#3, baby!), Quan, and Angela Bassett for Supporting Actress. Actor  is all over the map this time. It's between Brendan Fraser and Colin Farrell, and I'm not convinced Fraser will win, but I'm also not sure Farrell will. Austin Butler will be up in a terrible movie, but he's the wild card. But let's not put the cart before the horse. 

4--I'm also not sure how many noms The Whale will receive. I've heard mixed from many I've talked to. Is it just Fraser and Screenplay? This time, I'm clueless on the trajectory on this one. 

5--I got a great kick (no pun intended) out of Banshees. I have an Irish lit specialization (and almost studied Irish film at one point), and this is pure Ireland. I don't see how you have Farrell without Brendan Gleeson, who's always been the cat's ass and has never been nominated. That changes tomorrow morning. 

6--Banshees, Everything, and Women Talking are the horses I'm riding this year. As far as promotion/chat shows/when the ballots are out there, Women has been flooding the zone. Sarah Polley, whom I've loved since The Sweet Hereafter and an even better filmmaker, is loved by the industry, and this film is a slow burn, so damned subtle in addressing a hot-button issue. It's brilliant. I do think Polley (hopefully), is a lock for Adapted Screenplay. I also hope Jessie Buckley is along for the ride as well. 

7--I think Babylon will be hosed in the major categories. It'll get some technical nods, but it's not memorable. 

8--Can a donkey get a nomination? Several other asses in Hollywood have...


Enough already. As usual, I don't do docs, shorts, foreign films, or music. 


Best Picture

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Banshees of Inisherin

The Fabelmans

Top Gun: Maverick

TAR

Elvis

Women Talking

All Quiet on the Western Front

All Quiet on the Western Front

The Whale


Best Director

Steven Spielberg

Daniels

Martin McDonagh

Todd Field

Sarah Polley

---

Edward Berger

James Cameron

Joseph Kosinski


Best Actor

Colin Farrell

Brendan Fraser

Austin Butler

Bill Nighy

Paul Mescal

---

Tom Cruise

Tom Hanks


Best Actress

Cate Blanchett

Michelle Yeoh

Danielle Deadwyler

Viola Davis

Ana de Armas

---

Michelle Williams

Andrea Riseborough


Best Supporting Actor

Ke Huy Quan

Brendan Gleeson

Paul Dano

Barry Keoghan

Ben Wishaw

---

Eddie Redmayne

Bryan Tyree Henry

Judd Hirsch


Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett

Kerry Condon

Jamie Lee Curtis

Stephanie Hsu

Jessie Buckley

---

Hong Chau

Michelle Williams

Janelle Monae


Best Original Screenplay

The Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

TAR

Triangle of Sadness

---

Aftersun

The Menu

Babylon


Best Adapted Screenplay

Women Talking

The Whale

Living

She Said

Top Gun: Maverick

---

All Quiet on the Western Front

Glass Onion

Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio



Best Cinematography

Top Gun: Maverick

Empire of Light

The Batman

All Quiet on the Western Front

The Fabelmans

---

Avatar: The Way of Water

Elvis

Women Talking


Best Editing

Top Gun: Maverick

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Elvis

The Fabelmans

The Banshees of Inisherin

---

All Quiet on the Western Front

Babylon

Avatar: The Way of Water


Best Production Design

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Babylon

Elvis

Avatar: The Way of Water

All Quiet on the Western Front

---

The Fablemans

Glass Onion

Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio


Best Costume Design

Elvis

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Babylon

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

---

The Woman King

Don't Worry Darling

The Fabelmans


Best Sound

Top Gun: Maverick

All Quiet on the Western Front

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Avatar: The Way of Water


Best Visual Effects 

Avatar: The Way of Water

Top Gun: Maverick 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

The Batman

Nope

---

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Thirteen Lives

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness


Best Makeup

Elvis

The Whale

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Blonde

---

Amsterdam

All Quiet on the Western Front

Babylon


Nominations

Everything Everywhere All at Once    9

The Banshees of Inisherin                   8

The Fabelmans                                      7

Top Gun: Maverick                                6

Elvis                                                        6

Women Talking                                      5


Them's my predix, and I'm sticking to them. The slog starts in the AM 8:30, and my students will endure watching the announcement with me. 

My work here is done until March 12th. Follow me or mute me on the socials: Facebook, Twitter (@Franster23), and/or Instagram (@themsmaven) from now until March. The usual kvetching will continue. 

Happy Oscar Nominations Day, y'all! And, of course, Shalom and Seasons Screenings!