Monday, February 7, 2022

Viewers Askew: The Maven's Fearless (and Possibly Foolish) Oscar Nomination Predix 2022

 The Rona has upend the awards season, and I'm not talking Rona Barrett. 

Even a year after the first pandemic Oscars, there are big gaps this year between awards before the Oscars air in June, and I had to dig for a couple of days through Twitter to find the Golden Globe winners via Tweet. I would have thought the askew schedule would have occurred last season, not this one. And we have the Olympics again, actually being played. 

How late am I this time? About 12 hours before the nominations are announced. I've never been this late in the game!

Film releases felt muted all year, but everything felt muted this year. Save for seeing w/ some ads "Only in Theaters," most of the possible contenders are available via stream or on-demand, one of the few good elements to come out of this pandemic. 

I've not been bowled over by this year's crop of films, save for The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, and Don't Look Up (a hell of a fun mess). I have not seen Belfast nor the Tragedy of MacBeth. West Side Story is fun, but I'm not sure it has momentum. Dune is visually cool but I won't remember it in 20 years (save for Zendaya, but I'm thinking more Euphoria. Jesus!). And there aren't many small or foreign films lurking around for a spot this time, save for Drive My Car, which may at least be up for Director over Spielberg; I know one of the DGA nominees won't make it, and that's the one because WSS underperformed. This is one of those years that lends to my position now that television is better than movies at the moment. You're going to tell me last night's episode of Euphoria isn't better than a theatrical feature?

So not much to say at the moment, but a few observations:

1--The Power of the Dog will get a shit ton of nominations, deservedly. And I think Plemons will sneak in, and Dunst is forgiven for Melancholia. 

2--Actress is wide open. Since the fall, many have squawked about Kristen Stewart being left out of nominations for other awards, but I'm not surprised by this. Director Pablo Larrain makes dioramas, not movies. She may make the cut, but I don't see it. 

3--So if Wes Anderson isn't going to win a goddamned Oscar this year (love The French Dispatch, but many did not), will the other Anderson win finally? I think he will (Screenplay), and Licorice Pizza will do well nominationswise. And look for Alana Haim to be up for Actress. 

Enough already. I'm still wiped out by the pandemic, a new kitten destroying the house, course planning, and trying to sleep. As usual, I don't do docs, shorts, foreign film, or music. No overthinking this time because the crop is slim pickings. I got nothing else, so here goes:

Best Picture

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

Belfast

Dune

Licorice Pizza

Kind Richard

CODA 

Don't Look Up

...tick, tick... Boom!

Nightmare Alley


Best Director

Jane Campion

Paul Thomas Anderson

Kenneth Branagh

Denis Villenueve

Ryusuke Hamaguchi

---

Steven Spielberg

Adan McKay

Guillermo Del Toro


Best Actor

Benedict Cumberbatch

Will Smith

Denzel Washington

Javier Bardem

Andrew Garfield

---

Leonardo DiCaprio

Peter Dinklage

Mahershala Ali


Best Actress

Oliva Coleman

Nicole Kidman

Lady Gaga

Alana Haim

Jessica Chastain

---

Jennifer Hudson

Kristen Stewart

Penelope Cruz


Best Supporting Actor

Kodi Smit-McPhee

Troy Kotsur

Bradley Cooper

Ciaran Hinds

Jesse Plemons

---

Jared Leto

Ben Affleck

Mike Faist


Best Supporting Actress

Ariana DeBose

Kirsten Dunst

Aunjanue Ellis

Baitriona Balfe

---

Rita Moreno

Cate Blanchett

Marlee Matlin


Original Screenplay

Licorice Pizza

Belfast

Don't Look Up

Being the Ricardos

King Richard

---

The French Dispatch

Parallel Mothers

A Hero


Adapted Screenplay

The Power of the Dog

The Lost Daughter

CODA

West Side Story

Drive My Car

---

The Tragedy of Macbeth

Passing

Nightmare Alley


Best Cinematography

The Power of the Dog

Dune

The Tragedy of Macbeth

Belfast

Nightmare Alley

---

West Side Story

Licorice Pizza

Don't Look Up


Best Editing

Dune

The Power of the Dog

Licorice Pizza

Don't Look Up

West Side Story

---

Belfast

No Time to Die

Nightmare Alley


Best Production Design

Nightmare Alley

The French Dispatch

Dune

The Tragedy of Macbeth

West Side Story

---

Licorice Pizza 

House of Gucci

Spencer


Best Costume Design

Cruella

House of Gucci

Nightmare Alley

Dune

Cyrano

---

West Side Story

Spencer

Licorice Pizza


Best Sound

Dune

West Side Story

No Time to Die

A Quiet Place II

Spider-Man: No Way Home


Best Visual Effects

Dune

Spider-Man: No Way Home

No Time to Die

Godzilla vs Kong

Ghostbusters: Afterlife

---

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

The Matrix Resurrections

Eternals


Best Makeup

The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Cruella

Dune

House of Gucci

The Suicide Squad

---

West Side Story

Spencer

Cyrano


Nominations

The Power of the Dog    11

Dune                               8

West Side Story              8

Licorice Pizza                 7

Belfast                            7

King Richard                  5

CODA                            5

Don't Look Up                3


Them's my Predix, and I'm sticking to them. There'll be a smattering of surprises, and ommisions will happen. The agony begins about 8:15am, and my class will be watching along w/ me. 

My work is done here until March 27th (okay, a bit earlier than last year, but still. Summer movies are now coming out around that time). Follow me on Facebook, Twitter (@Franster23), and Instagram (@themsmaven) for the usual bitchiest and kvetching. If you can't handle it, mute me two weeks before the ceremony and two days after. 

Happy Oscar Nominations Day, y'all! And, of course, Shalom and Season's Screenings!