#OscarsSoPredictable: The MS Maven's Fearless Oscar Predix 2016

We are currently in a weird calm before the Oscar storm, or lack thereof methinks, a weird calm of the naysayers who are taking their talent and going home because they can't get a trophy and of most of the nominees who seem to be playing possum. This is one time that we haven't see a whole hell of a lot of campaigning or much buzz, thus, weird. 

Now, is some of this because of the #OscarsSoWhite controversy that has flooded the media? Somewhat. And this is the first time I can remember when I've heard more folks say they are more interested in the actual show than who wins. Many expect Chris Rock to do something that will rock the house in regards to the lack-of diversity-issue, and if he's true to form, this should be a fun show, hopefully.  

What I hope doesn't happen is that this becomes a political platform because of the controversy, w/ presenters speaking their peace. I don't mind political statements on stage, especially from winners since this may be the only time he or she can speak his or her peace. But I'm still jaded from last year's ceremony which was just terribly dreadful, seeming to be more about music than movies. Hey, AMPAS, you want to solve the problem of decreasing viewership? Try focusing once again on the films themselves, showing clips or montages of the year's films. This is supposed to be a celebration of what AMPAS wants to represent moviewise to the world, so step up your game. 

The one point I'll make about the lack of diversity w/ the Awards is this: A mediocre film knows no boundaries in terms of race or ethnicity. A shitty movie is a shitty movie, no matter who is in it or behind it, and trust me, there are many a mediocre film up this year. Quit playing it safe in terms of whom you nominate and trying to represent what the world wants to see (and box office does seem to be driven more by the foreign market). Yes, it's nice Sylvester Stallone is 99.9% certain he'll walk away w/ Best Supporting Actor, and he was actually good in Creed, but this is the first time in awhile since we have had the "career award," but Sly does make a shit ton of money for the suits (well, he used to, anyway). 

Conversely, you also have Room, which is this year's true indie film, the little film that could because of word-of-mouth on the film festival circuit and due to Brie Larson's career-making performance (and Jacob Trembly, if we had been in the old nominations model of having the deadlines closer to the end of January, I think he would have been up for Supporting Actor since he's this year's mascot). It's the law of averages here, the lava-flows of big films distributed by major studios or boutique outlets (does that term still exist?) w/ a  nice sputter of a film here or there. But diversity? Start w/ the inbred, hellbent-on-making-money Oscar politics first. It's like the politics in my English professor circles, dealing w/ works of old dead white men, aka The Canon, versus more contemporary, challenging works. When the old farts kick, change will occur. 

That said, unless Rock can light a a fire to wake the crowd, this year's ceremony will be boring as hell. I say this because practically all the major categories this go-round are locks, save for Picture, Director, and Supporting Actress. Plus, this year's film crop isn't particularly memorable. Think Spotlight will be remembered along w/ All the President's Men? Is Mad Max: Fury Road just Mister Toad's Wild Ride in disguise? The Revenant will be relevant a few years from now or just hot at the moment because Leo got dirty? Of the films nominated, The Big Short is one that will slowly catch up to folks and is the most unique film of the lot, and I hope it wins. Brooklyn is just lovely but has no traction, plus Saoirse Ronan will be w/ us for some time. Ditto Larson, and Room is a film, though along w/ The Big Short is my year's best, that cannot succeed without Larson's performance, and she knocks it out of the park. Thus, I still think Picture and Director split, and I don't see how anyone but Alejandro Innaritu wins Director, primarily for the challenges of making his film, one that is admirable but not memorable. Same to be said for Mad Max: Fury Road, a popcorn film at best, but I love me some George Miller, but the film I keep going back to from him is Lorenzo's Oil all these years later. 

Supporting Actress may give us the hiccup of the evening, for I think any one of the five could win. Most expect Alicia Vikander to win for The Danish Girl, but quick, name five folks who have seen it. She's fine in the film, and goddamn it's pedestrian as hell, but she should have been up for Ex Machina. Again, she's just getting warmed up and can't wait to see what's next. Rachel McAdams is the heart of Spotlight, I'm thrilled Jennifer Jason Leigh finally got a nomination, albeit for being the best element in Tarantino's weakest film. But I think Kate Winslet could upset here for Steve Jobs, a film I didn't expect too much from since it's from Danny Boyle, but I was pleasantly surprised, largely due to Winslet. Hope this isn't a case of me grasping at straws here for some surprise during the night, and this category tends to be the one to do the trick. After all, remember Marisa Tomei. 

Funny, for a meh lot of films this year I've bloated longer than Donald Trump during a CNN debate. So enough already. Here's my predictions, w/ the upsets:

Best Picture: The Big Short
upset: The Revenant

Best Director: Alejandro Innaritu
upset: George Miller

Best Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio
upset: Michael Fassbender

Best Actress: Brie Larson
upset: Charlotte Rampling 

Best Supporting Actor: Sylvester Stallone
upset: Tom Hardy

Best Supporting Actress: Alicia Vikander
Upset: Kate Winslet

Best Original Screenplay: Spotlight
Upset: Straight Outta Compton

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Big Short
Upset: Room

Best Animated Feature: Inside Out
Upset: Anomalisa

Best Foreign-Language Film: Son of Saul
Upset: Embrace of the Serpent

Best Original Score: The Hateful Eight
Upset: Carol

Best Original Song: "Til It Happens to You"--The Hunting Ground
Upset: "Earned It"--Fifty Shades of Grey

Best Cinematography: The Revenant
Upset: Sicario (Is Deakens ever going to win?)

Best Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road
Upset: The Big Short

Best Production Design: Mad Max: Fury Road
Upset: The Revenant

Best Costume Design: Carol
Upset: Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Sound Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road
Upset: The Revenant

Best Sound Mixing: Mad Max: Fury Road
Upset: The Revenant

Best Visual Effects: Mad Max: Fury Road
Upset: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Makeup: The Revenant
Upset: Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Documentary Feature: Amy
Upset: What Happened, Miss Simone?

Best Documentary Short Subject: Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
Upset: Body Team 12

Best Animated Short Film: Sanjay's Super Team
Upset: World of Tomorrow

Best Live-Action Short: Shok
Upset: Ave Maria

Wins

The Revenant                 4

Mad Max: Fury Road     5

The Big Short                 2

Spotlight                         1

Room                              1

Running Time: 3 hours 16 minutes

Them's my predix, and I'm sticking to them. As usual, I'll be venting my annual rite of Oscar passage via Facebook and Twitter in all my perverse glory. No pool again this year, saving my money for my March Madness pool, which will be wilder than the Oscars this time. And here's hoping Chris Rock streaks!

Happy Oscar Sunday, y'all! And, of course, shalom…

Wither Oscar? aka The MS Maven Oscar Nomination Predix Extravaganza 2015

Basking in the afterglow of Clemson's near-National Championship in football and the basketball team's victory just now over Duke, The Maven is now in for the long haul that is Oscar Season, beginning with tomorrow morning's nominations. 

I don't have much to say just yet. The buzz this year has been rather quiet, I must say. Too quiet. Pundits are usually about as bad as ESPN analysts acting as unpaid spokespeople for the SEC. Or maybe it's because it's cold as moose balls outside (the temperature at 9:23pm is 24 degrees, and this is NPR…). Yours truly has been plowing Oscar's killing field of contenders since the weekend, w/ a few more to go. I'm sure, like many of my fellow pundits, have seen more films in consideration than many an Academy member, which makes this sweet science more confounding. 

A few observations going into the fog of Oscar:

1--The only certainty this year is that Best Actor and Best Actress have locks in Leonardo DiCaprio and Brie Larson, with the latter, for me, giving the performance of the year. The other nominees in these respective categories are just noise (not undeserved, but still).

2--I think Room and Straight Outta Compton are gaining traction, while Spotlight, though excellent, is losing some. Peaked too early, I think. Don't be surprised if no actors from the film are nominated, for this one feels more collective than any on actor standing out. 

3--My wild cards at the moment are Tom Hardy for Supporting Actor (why isn't he getting any dap? Not the warmest of chaps, but he stands his ground w/ Leo, for Christ's sake!), Sicario making a mini-me late surge, and Alicia Verkander not being up for either Actress or Supporting Actress. 

4--Not sure Quentin Tarantino will feel any Oscar love this time around. He's starting to become repetitive, in his films and interviews. He needs to stop talking and get out of his own way. Jennifer Jason Leigh should finally get a long-overdue nomination and rep the film, happily. 

5--And speaking of directors, why does the Academy love Tom Hooper? He's pedestrian at best, and I don't see much coming from The Danish Girl, save for Eddie Redmayne; Oscar usually has a few repeat offenders from the previous year, and he'll be one of them. 

6--And how are some of these actors being run categorically now? Some suggest that Rooney Mara will be up for Actress but conventional wisdom is she's a lock for a Supporting nom. And some suggest that Steve Carell is in the same scenario, though I would put him in supporting. The Big Short also feels collective, save for him and Christian Bale, who should make the cut. But Carell is better in Short than he was in Foxcatcher. 

7--Supporting Actor is a Chinese fire drill at this point, a category with way too many possibilities. It may be more about who is left out than who is up. I don't know if Michael Keaton and Mark Ruffalo will split the Spotlight vote or not. (Rachel McAdams may be the sole acting nominee; she deserves it, and I hope the Academy doesn't punish her for True Detective, for sometimes a car wreck is just a car wreck).  If they do, we may get a nom out of left field (see #8 below). But the kid from Room, Jacob Tremblay, is in. Not much for child performances, but this is one of the best I've seen since Anna Paquin in The Piano, and we know how that turned out...

7--Don't be surprised if you hear the names of Charlize Theron, Paul Dano, and/or Benecio Del Toro called. Just a hunch. 

8--And my usually-annual mantra: Cinematographer Roger Deakins will be up for the umpteenth time. Is Deakins ever going to win a goddamned Oscar? (I see you, Craig Kennedy!)

But enough with the preamble. On with The Maven's predix, with each category with three alternates, as usual: 

Best Picture
The Revenant
Spotlight
Room
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Big Short
Straight Outta Compton
Carol
---
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Director
Ridley Scott
Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu
George Miller
Adam McKay
Tom McCarthy
---
Todd Haynes
Quentin Tarantino
Steven Spielberg

Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio
Michael Fassbender
Matt Damon
Eddie Redmayne
Bryan Cranston
---
Will Smith
Steve Carell
Johnny Depp

Best Actress
Brie Larson
Cate Blanchett
Saoirise Ronan
Jennifer Lawrence
Charlotte Rampling
---
Alicia Verkander
Charlize Theron
Lily Tomlin

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale
Mark Rylance
Jacob Tremblay
Idris Elba
Sylvester Stallone
---
Tom Hardy
Michael Keaton
Mark Ruffalo

Best Supporting Actress
Rooney Mara
Kate Winslet
Jennifer Jason Leigh
Jane Fonda
Rachel McAdams
---
Alicia Verkander
Helen Mirren
Kristen Stewart

Best Original Screenplay
Spotlight
Bridge of Spies
Sicario
Straight Outta Compton
Trainwreck
---
Joy
Inside Out
The Hateful Eight

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short
Steve Jobs
Room
Carol
The Martian
---
Brooklyn
The Revenant
Trumbo

Best Cinematography
The Revenant
Sicario 
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
Bridge of Spies
---
The Martian
The Hateful Eight
Brooklyn

Best Editing
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
The Martian
Sicario
---
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Spotlight
Steve Jobs

Best Production Design
Mad Max: Fury Road
Carol
The Martian
Cinderella
Bridge of Spies
---
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Danish Girl
Spotlight

Best Costume Design
Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Brooklyn
Crimson Peak
---
Mad Max: Fury Road
Bridge of Spies
Mr. Holmes

Best Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Revenant
The Martian
Sicario
---
Jurassic World
The Hateful Eight
Spectre

Best Sound Mixing
The Revenant
The Martian
Straight Outta Compton
Mad Max: Fury Road
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
---
Bridge of Spies
The Hateful Eight

Jurassic World

Best Visual Effects
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Martian
The Walk
Mad Max: Fury Road
Jurassic World
---
Avengers Age of Ultron

Best Makeup
The Revenant
Mad Max: Fury Road
Black Mass
---
Mr. Holmes

Nominations

The Revenant                           8

Spotlight                                    6

The Martian                              7

Room                                        5

Mad Max: Fury Road              8

The Big Short                          5

Carol                                         5

Bridge of Spies                       6

Straight Outta Compton         3

Brooklyn                                   3

Star Wars: Force Awakens    5

Note: Nom totals are not an exact count of my category predix

Thems my fearless predix and I'm sticking to them. And 8:37 comes too damned early in the morn, so The Maven's work is done here. 

Happy Oscar, y'all! And, of course, shalom!