We are 11 days out from The Main Event (anyone remember that film?), and the saga that is As the Oscar Turns has seen some seismic shifts as of late. These are just some random thoughts I have at this state in the Oscar race, and they are just that--thoughts. My predix will come in nine days, but these are just some matters to consider:
1--The love for Boyhood has faded faster than a Valentine's date at Waffle House, while Birdman has racked up the major guild awards in dramatic fashion. But in winning the trifecta of SAG, the PGA, and DGA, does this mean the film is a slam-dunk to win Picture and Director? I don't think so, and I've read what's out there in the Twitterverse, blogs, and beyond to try to put my finger on where this surge began, because most films about actors don't win Oscars, especially Picture or Director. Perhaps it's because voters actually watched the screeners, precisely the reason Selma didn't get more nominations (though I think the film until its final half hour is uneven). Boyhood came out on video last month, but not sure that's helped here.
Some I've talked to see Boyhood as a movie of trickery, what w/ the filming over a dozen years. It's a solid film, and I still don't understand why no love for Eller Coltrane, the heart of the film. It's a tad long in spots, but don't parts of your life feel that way?
One could argue that Birdman is just as much a gimmick, albeit a more impressive one, what with the film being one long tracking shot. It works beautifully w/out taking away from the fine ensemble and smart screenplay. Emmanual Lubezki is a lock to win, despite having just won last year for Gravity. But will voters tick off their ballots for Birdman because they are impressed by Alajandro Inarritu's "magically realisitic" approach without going too far off the rails? He creates a narrative that falls into the lap of what America (fuck yeah!) represents, hitting rock bottom and trying to find redemption in your final act (of sorts). Inarritu has yet to make a bad film in my eyes (and I think I'm the only person who is still a champion for Babel), but Richard Linklater's career, though I largely like most his films and am a fan, has been quite uneven. And to direct the same actors for 12 years is not something just any director can pull off seamlessly, but would this speak more for the editor than the director? The film is a lot like most Linklater films, quiet contemplations as if walking down a backroad thinking out loud about life. And remember, kids, Linklater did some tracking shots of his own in Slacker, still possibly my favorite still.
2--So where does this leave us? Exactly where I began because I still have no fucking clue what will win Best Picture. Some are decrying those two words we hear uttered annually, in hopes of seeing an upset: vote-splitting. Could it happen? Sure. Will it happen? Nope, although this year would be ripe for such a surprise (remember when Brokeback Mountain was a lead-pipe cinch and Crash won?)Some think votes may kick to Selma or American Sniper, but many still have not seen Selma and American Sniper because the box-office beast that could not be (and still barely has been) contained. But I think it may win either or both Sound awards and perhaps Cooper (will get to this in a moment). And where I thought this may be a year of spreading the love among multiple films, the race is shaping up between just a couple that may win multiple awards, primarily Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel.
Speaking of which, Budapest is a film that went from hoping to be nominated for Production Design to being 99 percent certain it will win this category and Makeup, but also maybe Costume Design (would love to see Inherent Vice win this) and maybe Score, and possibly, hopefully Wes Anderson for Original Screenplay. The film could win the most trophies of the night and Wes Baby could still walk away without a damned Oscar!
3--Watch Editing and what wins. Usually Editing and Picture line up but not always (Black Hawk Down over Chicago, both still two of the best edited films I've seen). But if Whiplash should win here, watch out! If Boyhood wins, still not sure it will win Picture. Sorry to sound like every other cynic, but the last time I saw this much deflation from front runner to possible also-ran was in 2001, when Sissy Spacek was seemingly a lock to win Actress and Halle Berry (thrillingly!) won.
4--Could Patricia Arquette be Boyhood's only Oscar? This idea popped into my head before the SAGs. Being up for only six awards, it's possible. And it's J K Simmons's Oscar to lose at this point, and he clearly deserves it because, though I like the film a lot, he and Miles Teller take a very weak screenplay and make is sing, creating the "jazz" in the film (pun intended).
5--Julianne Moore is finally going to win the goddamned Oscar. Period. Solid category, with Reese Witherspoon being the most surprising performance, far better in Wild than in Walk the Line (which is Phoenix's film). And Rosamund Pike's is possibly the performance of the year (along w/ Jessica Chastian in A Most Violent Year, a film, along w/ Gone Girl, that was hosed) for me, but Moore (and, yes, Kristin Stewart, who also should have been nominated) is stunning in a mediocre film; the last scene is devastating. Who else is up?
6--But could there be an upset in Supporting Actress? It's the category where it usually happens. Some have expressed love for Laura Dern, and she (as well as Reese) is excellent in Wild, but I'm not buying the argument that the Academy wants award her for her pounding the Awards circuit pavement for her dad Bruce last year. He didn't win, did he, good though he was, and I still would change my vote daily from last years Actors, a solid crop where usually Actress is the category bursting at the seams.
7--Which leads to the most problematic category, Actor. It seems down to Michael Keaton and Eddie Redmayne, and this is a case for me in which either actor could win, and I would be thrilled. Both gave very complex, physical, and heartfelt performance, albeit coming from two entirely different planes. Both actors were seamless and moving in roles inherent with layers of irony. Keaton manages the multiple roles within his film in amazing fashion, and Redmayne captures the essence of Stephen Hawking with a twinkle of wonder in his eye as he negotiates his way through Hawking's illness. And The Theory of Everything was a revelation for me; I went into it thinking it would be a diorama with accents but came out incredibly moved by one of the better biopics I've seen in years. I've personally never been more torn with whom I would vote for. And as much as I have the hots for Bradley Baby, he could well be the spoiler here; a tremendous physical actor anyway, Cooper is a dead-ringer for Chris Kyle, and I never once thought I was watching Cooper. I keep thinking if voters want to reward Sniper it would be here, plus actors pushed hard for Cooper to be nominated, which would explain why, along with the late release of the film/screeners, he wasn't up for a SAG or a Golden Globe. And the film has lost a bit of steam in chattering circles, plus the trial of Chris Kyle's killer just began, so not sure of what impact, if any, this may have since this film, one that turned into a political Rorchach Test that seems to have been more massively polarizing than most expected,
Many are predicting Redmayne to win, and I'm cool with that. But my question is if, in fact, Birdman tends to sweep many categories, how can a film centered on Michael Keaton's performance win multiple Oscars, including possibly both Picture and Director, and not pick up a win for Actor along the way? That would be as ironic as Inarritu's film...
So to quote Maxine Nightingale (where is she now?), we're right back where we started from. We have little over a week yet. All but the WGA have weighed in guildwise, and now we're in that strange nadir where everyone overthinks everything because there's nothing else to be done until the ceremony. Besides, William Goldman said, "Nobody knows anything," and nor does The Maven...
No comments:
Post a Comment