BIrdman and Boyhood and Budapest, Oh My! The MS Maven's Fearless Predix 2015

Birdman or Boyhood? Inarritu or Linklater? The Maven is worn out, for this is the weird nadir when everyone second guesses himself or herself between when the ballots are due and the ceremony. And I, like many, have wrestled w/ Picture, Director, and Actor. But you have to remember, many Academy members don't geek out like some of us, voting for friends, studios, or by knee-jerk.

That said, here are a few observations before my predix:

1--I said before the SAGs that Arquette could possibly be Boyhood's only Oscar. It's a gut feeling I've had, and some folks have indicated they see the film as "trickery." I wouldn't go that far, but I can see where they are coming from. I watched the film again last night, and I like it immensely the way I like most of Linklater's films, which is my point. Translated, how do you reward consistency? I've always said the litmus test for a Best Picture winner is, will it be remembered 20 years from now? The one film I think will be--The Grand Budapest Hotel--may be the one, but has no chance in hell of winning BP.

2--Which leads to Birdman, which is quite memorable and I think, more than Boyhood, will stand the test of time and hold up over the years. Most films about the theater and acting don't win, which makes this film a bit of an anomaly. And Inarritu has been a consistent director as well (and am I the only person who still likes/defends Babel?). And keep this in mind: between both films, if BP and Director split, both Linklater and Inarritu win Oscars.

3--Actor. Like many, I thought Michael Keaton was a slam-dunk. Then I saw The Theory of Everything. I didn't think much going in, expecting a by-the-numbers biopic (which, by the way The Imitation Game is; save for Benedict Cumberbatch, Knightly, and the screenplay, the film's last half hour is its saving grace. Morten Tyldum has no business being up for Director and will be working an In and Out Burger in no time. Harvey's pushed a bit hard w/ this one, but it will win Adapted Screenplay). I didn't expect to be moved. There is an intangible quality that Eddie Redmayne brings to the role, a twinkle in his eye showing a mind always at work when his body isn't. I think Bradley Cooper is a dead-ringer for Chris Kyle and is soulful in his performance, staying above the political fray to be true to Kyle's spirit. And goddamn I want to see Keaton win, because his performance is every bit as nuanced as Redmayne's, albeit from an entirely different angle. But I have to tip the scales to Redmayne. It's simply a beautifully nuanced performance that isn't predictable in the least. But here's the question I've been left with: How can Birdman win BP and Director and Keaton not win Actor when it's an actor's film? I won't be upset w/ either winning.

4--I hope my other gut feeling does not occur, that The Grand Budapest Hotel will win several Oscars (four by my count), but Anderson loses Original Screenplay I hope I'm wrong. Maybe this is where Linklater gets his Oscar but doubtful. I want Anderson to finally win an Oscar.

5--I kept thinking there would be a BP/Director split but I'm thinking not at this point. If it splits anyway, I think Boyhood for BP and Inarritu for Director, not vice versa.

6--I hope there is one major surprise, but I'm not going to try to guess this one. I will say this: If Boyhood wins Editing, it probably wins BP. If Whiplash wins it (which I'm predicting), lookout!

I'm as guilty as all the other blowhards overdoing it at this point. I have nothing left except my Predix. The shit show (thanks Craig Kennedy for this term, I also knicknamed one of my former students this, and she loves the moniker!) is 24 hours away, so with no further ado, here's mine (my picks and the upsets):

Best Picture: Birdman
upset: Boyhood

Best Director: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu
upset: Richard Linklater

Best Actor: Eddie Redmayne
upset: Michael Keaton

Best Actress: Julianne Moore
upset: Rosamund Pike

Best Supporting Actor: J K Simmons
upset: Edward Norton

Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette
upset: Emma Stone

Best Original Screenplay: The Grand Budapest Hotel
upset: Birdman

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Imitation Game
upset: American Sniper

Best Animated Feature: Big Hero 6
upset: How to Train Your Dragon 2

Best Foreign-Language Film: Ida
upset: Leviathan

Best Score: The Theory of Everything
upset: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Song: "Glory"
upset: "I'm Not Gonna Miss You"

Best Cinematography: Birdman
upset: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Editing: Whiplash
upset: American Sniper

Best Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
upset: Into the Woods

Best Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
upset: Into the Woods

Best Sound Editing: American Sniper
upset: Birdman

Best Sound Mixing: Whiplash
upset: American Sniper

Best Visual Effects: Interstellar
upset: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Best Makeup: The Grand Budapest Hotel
upset: Foxcatcher

Best Documentary Feature: Citizenfour
upset: Virunga

Best Documentary Short Subject: Crisis Hotline
upset: Joanna

Best Live-Action Short: The Phone Call
upset: Boogaloo and Graham

Best Animated Short: Feast
upset: The Dam Keeper

The Wins

(Note: Win totals may not line up w/ my Predix)

 

The Grand Budapest Hotel    4

Birdman                                 3

Whiplash                                3
The Theory of Everything       2
Boyhood                                 1
The Imitation Game               1 

Running Time: 3 hours, 32 minutes

As usual, I'll be performing my annual rite of passage of posting and Tweeting on Facebook and Twitter. And once again, I didn't do an office pool because I need to save my money to restock more beer after tomorrow night.

 

Happy Oscar Sunday, y'all. And, of course, shalom...