The Sounds of Campaign Silence, aka The MS Maven Oscar Nomination Predix Extravaganza 2016

The Maven is still basking in the afterglow of Clemson finally winning the National Championship (after all these years, I finally get the last laugh), as well as recovering from this past year's very exhausting election cycle. And I took a large chunk of of that recovery time to see most of the presumed major nominees in multiple categories.

But the same cannot be said about this year's Oscar season. I have not seen as many actors or filmmakers whoring themselves out for the Golden One as I have in the past few years. Sure, Casey Affleck, Emma Stone, Viola Davis (she's doing double duty for Fences and HTGAWM), and a few more have made the rounds on the talk-show circuit, but the fever pitch that usually begins in November has been pretty muted. Just coming out of the nasty presidential election, no matter your preference, I'm sure played a large role; the notion of campaigning for anything at the moment has caused flashbacks so bad that Academy members who voted for Slumdog Millionaire for Best Picture are weeping. And I think the campaign hangover also contributed to a few films peaking too soon in the process.

There's not much to say this go-round because, save for a few scant nominees to complete the categories, the Academy will be gaga for La La Land, the bittersweet, feel-good infectious confection that is an antidote for the current cultural climate; it's Mister Toad's Wild Ride in Technicolor. Will it break the record for noms? No, because no Supporting players are available to kick it over the top. But it will be close.

The rest of the pack will be fine. And this is a year where maybe the reward for some of the better films will be in the noms and not the wins if La La in fact makes like Titanic, unless it hits the iceberg in wins.

Here are a few last-minute thoughts before tomorrow morning's new and improved nominations reveal:

1--Nominations announced on a Tuesday? What fresh hell is this? This has made The Maven scramble to pull together her list with no time to check it twice. Well, the day/time change as well as still being in la la land with the Clemson win.

2--I mentioned some films peaking too early. And I'm thinking of Loving, a good film that I think was released too early and fizzled fast, Fences has a bit, and I'm surprised Arrival, which looks like a mashup of Contact and Inception (a film I despise), is still being boosted in some of the major categories; I love me some Amy Adams, but she phoned in this performance (Louise phone home?).

3--That said, some films have picked up momentum, primarily Moonlight, which has had a slow-burn of good publicity since it's initial release. This pleases me enormously. The love for this film, a uniquely structured and well acted film about transformation and love, proves my point last year about the Oscars So White controversy, in that a solid film will be honored despite color or race. Same could be said of Hidden Figures, a feel-good crowd pleaser with excellent performances and good, period (not to sound like Sean Spicer).

4--Hidden Figures has been the hot movie while the Oscar ballots were out. The film is uniformly well-acted (hell, even Kevin Costner is good) and Octavia Spencer has been on most the nom prefix lists, but, A) The film belongs to Taraji P. Henson, so don't be surprised if she gets one of the two final slots for Actress (what with Emma Stone, Natalie Portman, and Isabelle Huppert being pretty much locks). And don't surprised if Janelle Monae makes it into Supporting. I don't think all three will be snubbed.

5--Could Aaron Taylor-Johnson and Michael Shannon both make the cut for Nocturnal Animals, a love it or leave it film for many, though I think it's underrated (I'm looking at you, Mark Charney)? I think Taylor-Johnson is in, for I'm not convinced Hugh Grant will not make it here, despite the SAG nod.

6--I am not in the camp that thinks Deadpool will make the Best Picture cut. There are enough decent films to fill out the category, and I think there will be eight, which seems to be the magic number these past few years with preferential balloting.

7--Silence will get some last-minute love for Martin Scorsese for Director. Who will be left out? Possibly Kenneth Lonergan because in my eyes the directing of Manchester By the Sea is it's weakest element. Also could be Denis Villeneuve, but I've already shown my anti-Arrival bias.

8--Lion is the one film of the lot I've not seen, and I'm not sure what to make of it. I think it's in for BP, but beyond that I'm iffy. Hidden Figures may be the feel-good film for the category.

9--I would love to see Don Cheadle up for Miles Ahead. Won't happen. Talk about a film peaking early!

10--The only certain thing I can say ahead of the Big Show is that Viola Davis will finally win a goddamned Oscar. Everything else is conjecture.

11--And finally, as certain as it will be cold as moose balls until March, I ask the annual burning question: When will Cinematographer Roger Deakins win an Oscar, goddamned or otherwise? He could be up for Hail, Caeser! but he won't win (I see you, Craig Kennedy!). Goddamn it.

Enough already. As usual I don't do the the music, docs, or shorts, but my nomination totals will account for music (La La, duh), but here are The Maven's predix, with three alternates, save for Picture and Makeup, for each category:

Best Picture
La La Land
Moonlight
Manchester By the Sea
Hidden Figures
Lion
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Arrival
---
Hell or High Water
Silence

Best Director
Damien Chazelle
Barry Jenkins
Martin Scorsese
Denzel Washington
Denis Villeneuve
---
Kenneth Lonergan
Garth Davis
David Mackenzie

Best Actor
Casey Affleck
Denzel Washington
Ryan Gosling
Andrew Garfield
Viggo Mortensen
---
Tom Hanks
Joel Edgerton
Michael Keaton

Best Actress
Emma Stone
Natalie Portman
Issabelle Huppert
Taraji P. Henson
Annette Bening
---
Meryl Streep
Amy Adams
Ruth Negga

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali
Jeff Bridges
Lucas Hedges
Dev Patel
Aaron Taylor-Johnson
---
Michael Shannon
Hugh Grant
Mykelti Williamson

Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis
Michelle Williams
Naomi Harris
Nicole Kidman
Janelle Monae
---
Octavia Spenser
Gretta Gerwig
Aji Naomi King

Best Original Screenplay
Manchester By the Sea
La La Land
Hell or High Water
The Lobster
20th Century Women
---
Captain Fantastic
Zootopia
Jackie

Best Adapted Screenplay
Moonlight
Fences
Lion
Hidden Figures
Nocturnal Animals
---
Deadpool
Loving
Silence

Best Cinematography
La La Land
Moonlight
Arrival
Silence
Hail, Caeser!
---
Lion
Hacksaw Ridge
Jackie

Best Editing
La La Land
Moonlight
Hacksaw Ridge
Arrival
Silence
---
Manchester By the Sea
Jackie
Deepwater Horizon

Best Production Design
La La Land
Jackie
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caeser!
Arrival
---
Rogue One
Silence
Rules Don't Apply

Best Costume Design
La La Land
Jackie
Florence Foster Jenkins
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
---
Love and Friendship
Silence
Hidden Figures

Best Sound Editing
La La Land
Hacksaw Ridge
Rogue One
Arrival
Sully
---
Deepwater Horizon
Silence
The Jungle Book

Best Sound Mixing
La La Land
Hacksaw Ridge
Rogue One
Arrival
Deadpool
---
Silence
The Jungle Book
Sully

Best Visual Effects
The Jungle Book
Doctor Strange
Rogue One
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
---
Passengers
Deepwater Horizon

Best Makeup
Florence Foster Jenkins
Deadpool
Hail, Caeser!
---
A Man Called Ove

Nominations

La La Land                     13

Moonlight                         7

Manchester By the Sea     6

Fences                              5

Hidden Figures                 5

Arrival                              7

Lion                                  5

Hell or High Water           4

Hacksaw Ridge                5 

Jackie                               4

Note: The totals don't line up with my category predix per se.

Them's my Fearless Predix, and The Maven is sticking to them. I have a feeling there will be a major omission or inclusion that many of us Oscar prognosticators are missing. And, like w/ the presidential election hangover, we may vary well be gobsmacked come 8:18am in the morning (a time change, really?) and not see it coming. 

The Maven's work is done here for another year. Happy Oscar Nomination Day, y'all! And, of course, shalom!