The FU Oscars

We are in the midst of the movie awards season and on the eve of the Screen Actors Guild Awards, things have become rather interesting in the past couple of weeks. We've gone from a wide-open race for Best Picture to one that has turned this uncertain Season into the "Fuck You" Oscars. To wit:

1--Screenwriter William Goldman once said about Hollywood, "Nobody knows anything." Applying that logic, nobody can answer why Ben Affleck was robbed of a Best Director nod from the Academy. Was he just a few votes short? It's not because he's an actor, because we have five in the past 30 years who have won Director: Robert Redford (Marty Scorsese was robbed that year), Warren Beatty (deserved), Kevin Costner (um...), Mel Gibson (no comment from this Appalachian Jew), and Clint Eastwood (vastly underrated still). In fact, I've said Affleck is an underrated director and hold to it, even if he made Gigli...

2--Argo is on pace at this point to win Best Picture. It won the Golden Globe (they're flaky but still) and just wont the Producer's Guild Award last night; the past five years the film that won the PGA went on the win the Oscar.

I'm almost ready to call it, but not quite. Remember when everyone thought Brokeback Mountain was a cinch to win Picture? Yeah, thought so.

Now, just a few observations at this point. I am not making my Oscar predix just yet, for The Maven has to ponder some various possibilities. Here goes:

1--If Argo wins tonights SAG for Ensemble Cast, game over. If it does not, say Lincoln or Silver Linings Playbook (my favorite of the year next to Argo) wins, things get downright interesting.

2--The only Oscar category that is a lock at this point is Anne Hathaway in Les Miserables. It will be it's only Oscar. I love her, and by rights she should have won for Rachel Getting Married, but I have to go get a growler of beer before I can watch the film and see which one ends first.

3--The other three acting categories are wide open. For Actress and Supporting Actor, any of the five could win and I would be happy, especially for the former category; I can't remember a year in which every performance made for a great slate of nominees. With Quevenzhane Wallis in the mix, this make this category quite interesting. Can she win? I don't know. For Supporting Actor, my favorites are Allan Arkin and Tommy Lee Jones (if Jones wins, will that be Lincoln's Oscar?), but I'm clueless at this point who has the edge. Coming off the heels of Meryl Streep's win last year of her third Oscar, could this be the time for DeNiro's third? Just asking...

4--Dovetailing off that notion, according to my friend and attorney, Allen N. Swords, Esq., when Reds was up for all four acting categories, only Maureen Stapleton won Supporting Actress. I think if anyone wins, it will be Jennifer Lawrence, deservedly, Hunger Games be damned...

5--Look at what is hot at this moment and when the Oscar ballots are due. At the moment, Wallis, Sally Field (does the Academy still like her?), Jessica Chastain, the Playbook cast, and Affleck are working the media like nobody's business. Les Miz has lost steam fast. Lincoln isn't Spielberg's (nor Day-Lewis's; he's made up to look like Warren Beatty playing Lincoln) best film (seriously, nobody in the next 20 years will remember Lincoln; they will Argo for it's unique). Nobody has seen Life of Pi (thank god).

6--Wither Zero Dark Thirty? At this point I actually think the film won't win any Oscars (unless Chastain wins), in large part due to the political backlash, but it's faded quickly in light of the Argo surge. This, despite the Time cover story this week on Kathryn Bigelow (yes, she was robbed, for I think ZDT is a better film than The Hurt Locker, and I'm a huge fan of it).

Enough at this point. Showtime for the SAGs. Viva Argo and Silver Linings Playbook!