After several years of Oscar ceremony whiplash, often seeing the Awards being handed out on Labor Day, The Academy came back to their senses and scheduled the show at a more reasonable time (though I would love to see them at the end of February again. Winter Olympics, where art thou?).
Paradoxically, I decry this, but the Awards came up faster than Trump can come up with cheddar for his judgements. So here we are, in what to me felt like a shortened awards season. Even Film Twitter has been behaving. This year's film crop was overall better than I expected, with no real howlers in the lot, despite my being in the minority opinion on a couple of films, which I'll get to shortly.
This Awards season began with Barbenheimer and ended on some grand notes, with many fine performances, particularly with Best Actress; this year's lineup rivals the last great bloodbath of a lineup in 2020. The burning question is how many trophies will Oppenheimer or Barbie win? I'm not of the camp that Oppenheimer will sweep like in the old days because the Academy is more diversified. To this point, I think this will be a share-the-wealth year.
But Oppenheimer will win several awards, and Christopher Nolan will finally win an Oscar; he deserves it. I'm not a big Nolan fan, and I went into the film cynically but came out a fan. Of course, Nolan's M.O. and downfall is his inability to develop characters of any depth, but he was kinda force to go a bit deeper here because these are real people. But the key to the film is Cillian Murphy. Like with the question I asked with the 2020 Oscar about how despite being a loaded category, how Frances McDormand is the lead role in Nomadland couldn't be considered since the film took most the major awards, how can Oppenheimer win a large handful of Awards and not have Murphy along for the ride. The scene when Oppenheimer speaks to the audience after the bombs have been drop, when he looks amazed at his achievement and horrified at what he's created, Murphy's expressions are a tightrope many actors couldn't pull off quite as well. What his eyes.
As usual, I crammed for the exam, and here are my observations for how the night may go, as well as an airing of an Oscar grievance or two:
1--The only locks I see w/ any of the major Awards are Robert Downey, Jr. and Da'vine Joy Randolph, the latter of which may be the only Oscar for The Holdovers. Love the film but it peaked early.
2--Actor started out w/ a Birdman vs The Theory of Everything rivalry between Paul Giamatti vs. Cillian Murphy, but the latter will win. I would, though, love to see Jeffrey Wright upset here (won't happen).
3--Back to Barbie, I think it will win a couple of trophies. It will win for Best Song, but which one? I love me some Billie Eilish, but this is not her best song, and "I'm Just Ken" is a hell of a lot of fun. I loved "Dance the Night" better than both of those, but it didn't make the cut.
Barbie is competing head-to-head with Poor Things, which was just flat-out fucking brilliant on every level, and it will be interesting who comes out ahead in the craft categories.
3--Does the Academy have the balls to award Greta Gerwig for Adapted Screenplay to make up for the lack of a Director nod. I would love it because I love her, but I don't see it.
4--And while we're at it: Is Wes Anderson finally going to win a fucking Oscar? Yes, Virginia, I think he will!
5--Is Oppenheimer's screenplay going to win by rote if it picks up a lot of wins in the lesser categories? I think American Fiction will beat it, and I hope it does, another brilliant film with a layered, hilarious screenplay.
6--The Holdovers had a real push for Original Screenplay, but folks more recently have been abuzz about Anatomy of a Fall, which, for me, along w/ Poor Things and American Fiction, is the year's best film. It wasn't the French entry for the International Film category (it should have been, and I think would beat the inferior The Zone of Interest) and kicked to the major categories. I think it wins here...
7--...and for Sandra Huller for Actress. I love the film, and am thinking w/ head not heart for these picks, but she shape-shifted her emotions throughout her performance, keeping me on edge and trying to figure out is she had a hand in her husband's death.
8--And this is far from joining the consensus opinion about the power of the film, but The Zone of Interest had a couple of good shots but otherwise didn't impress me. I know it's bases on a true story, but after the first 20 minutes, I got it. I've liked Jonathan Glazer's other films better, but he did nothing to allow me to care for any of the characters. While I've said for years that more filmmakers should leave a lot to the imagination (and I'm thinking of Mike's Murder from 1983, not a great movie but I liked it, where the title character, who was murdered, is only seen in a photograph on a mantle, not flashbacks). However, it will win International Film. There has been a late surge, but I don't buy it will win Best Picture.
9--I think Past Lives and The Color Purple (indulge me a shoutout to Danielle Brooks, the pride of Greenville, SC) will get hosed, and if Lily Gladstone doesn't win Actress, Killers of the Flower Moon will be hosed as well.
10--And notice I've left Actress to the last because this is the one category that started with a lock for Gladstone but is now up in the air. I don't know who will win at this point. Carey Mulligan in Maestro is so nuanced in her performance she almost upstages Bradley Cooper (and he's better than what many are giving him credit for); and I thought she should have won in the Nomadland year for Promising Young Woman. Annette Bening gave one of her best performances (as did Jodie Foster) in Nyad, so that leaves Gladstone, Huller, and Stone.
Killer Moon peaked early and lasts about 10 hours, so I'm not sure how much that will play here. Emma Stone's performance in Poor Things is a brilliantly comedic tightrope, one of the best comedic performances I've seen because it's so raw, but Sandra Huller also walks a very ambiguous tightrope. I won't be upset with any winner in this category, but my gut says Huller here. But I'd love it if Stone takes it.
Last-Minute No Guts, No Glory gut-check (h/t Sasha Stone):
Huller for Actress
Not Nolan for Director
Ryan Gosling for Supporting Actor
Enough already! Finally, let's get jiggy with it:
upset: The Holdovers
