Well, I finally got my wish in spades. The entire awards-season schedule has been upended by the Olympics, to the point that all the voting for the various guilds are overlapping in weird ways. The Globes are two days before Oscar ballots are due, then the DGA and SAG are piled on top of each other. I wanted a shorten season, but not this short.
While #FilmTwitter and pundits have obsessed for months (longer than this season, I might add) about what actor may get that fifth slot or what picture can be nominated without an actor being up (and I'm guilty of this as well, just not before October), the timetable is the one element that I've not heard anyone consider at great length. And I do think this will play a role in tomorrow nominations, be it for who surprises by being in or being out. There's not been much time to digest all the noms across the board and to try to squeeze in late releases; I've watch more films the past two weeks than I have in the past six months. (And by the way, Sasha Stone is usually the wisest sage w/ these things, so when she writes, you better bloody listen).
And this year's crop across the board is pretty solid. I don't feel any nominees will be for career awards (Laura Dern comes close, but she's equally terrific in Marriage Story and Little Women), and the voters I know say they've enjoyed the bulk of the films.
I'm not sure I have much to add to the conversation until we see the noms tomorrow. Plus, I'm just as preoccupied with the Clemson/LSU game tomorrow night. The Maven's two High Holy Days merging into a single day? Madness! But I do have a few observations:
1--I'll be rooting for all things Once Upon a Time...In Hollywood, Parasite, Dolemite is My Name, 1917, and Judy (not a great movie, but then, to bust up the ongoing argument about biopics, the movie is the performance, so if it fails, the movie follows suit. But Zellweger is the cat's ass and has appeared everywhere except the opening of a new mall in Santa Monica).
2--I still don't know what the Academy is going to do w/ Richard Jewell and Little Women. The screenplay for Jewell has more holes than St. Charles in New Orleans, but Paul Walker Hauser's performance is the most underrated this season (Kathy Bates is cool, but it's not her movie), and he could very well surprise, and I hope so. In the case of Little Women, I think folks are still bursting at the seams to honor Greta Gerwig in some way, but I'm not sure this is the film to serve that purpose. I like the film, but it ain't Lady Bird (not entirely a fair comparison, but life's not fair). So does this mean Saoirse Ronan gets hosed in the fallout? Florence Pugh has been hot of late at the right time, so she, I think, gets that fifth supporting slot over Bates.
3--And to that end, what to do with Marriage Story. I dig this film, but it's Driver's film, and though I really would like to see him take Actor, it's Joaquin Phoenix's to lose. I still think The Squid and The Whale is better, and I do see this as an offshoot of that film. But I think the one nomination that nobody may see coming would be Alan Alda. He's every bit as good as the other principle players.
4--But, like Marriage Story, The Irishman started out white-hot during the season and now it's waning a bit. Again, I like the film, it could have been tightened a bit, but it's not Scorsese's best. It'll get a lot of noms, but I think DeNiro misses. And I've not considered if there will be any backlash due to Marty's Marvel comments. Doubt it.
5--Speaking of backlash, I also wonder if the Netflix Effect will kick in, or if this will be the year that Hollywood begins to accept the paradigm shift of how we watch movies now. The lack of access to better films is an endless argument, and movies are better on a big screen, at least when someone isn't behind you snorting popcorn, so why not Netflix? And for the record, Marty wasn't wrong in his stance about the Marvel films sucking the air out of theatrical distribution (don't @ me, you know I'm right).
6--I said for years if Quentin Tarantino ever grew up that he would make a great movie, and he did with Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood. I've always like QT (and I still say Jackie Brown is, with this and Pulp Fiction, his best film) but I wouldn't wish Hateful Eight on my worst enemy. This is not unlike when Roman Polanski made The Ninth Gate, when I said he shouldn't make another movie, but then makes The Pianist.
7--I'm sure we'll hear more about the diversity issue. This year was an embarrassment of riches, so if women and minorities don't get a lot of nominations, I don't think it's due to this issue. It's just a crowded year. And the BAFTA's opening an investigation into voting? Bitch, please! I don't think the Russians had anything to do with this! Seriously, there's a paradigm shift here as well, it's just a bit more gradual. And it has nothing to do with voting, it has to do with providing more opportunities to produce more diverse works.
8--Y'all realize that Roger Deakins will go from not winning an Oscar for decades, and now he'll make quick work of the Academy and win a second one for 1917, a very late entry into the race. The film will do quite well, and it should. It's stunning.
9--You also realize that Cynthia Erivo will still be nominated if she misses for Actress, for Song.
10--Parasite is my favorite film of the year (along with Hollywood), and it will do well across the board. Will it win Picture? I don't know, too early. Director? I'm thinking so. It better be up for Production Design, because that house is as important to the film as the actors. That house is an actor!
11--I do think the nominees for Director will be stat from the DGA. I agree with Brian Perry/@RoadToOscar that Gerwig will miss here and may win Adapted Screenplay, I don't think Noah Baumbach makes it, and Todd Phillips is the wild card, despite Joker probably getting several other nominations.
12--Finally, Joker, the most divisive film on the slate. This one has caused a lot of ink to be spilled and split folks down the middle. There are shots in this film (along with the wide shot of the family walking through the city during the flood in Parasite) that are gorgeous and made me shift away from television back to movies. I think the ending is a cheap shot, though, but that doesn't take away from Joaquin Phoenix's performance. I still think the wrong actor won for Walk the Line, and he probably should have won (along with the late Philip Seymour Hoffman) for The Master, but this will make up for that.
Enough already. As usual, I don't do the music, docs, shorts, foreign, or animated this round, and my nomination totals will account for the music. Thus, here are my prefix, with three alternates, save for Picture, Visual Effects, and Makeup, for each category. Here's where I think things are headed come 8:18 in the morning (and why the weird time, for fuck's sake?):
Best Picture
The Irishman
1917
Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Parasite
Joker
Jojo Rabbit
Marriage Story
Little Women
Ford vs. Ferrari
---
Knives Out
Best Director
Quentin Tarantino
Bong Joon Ho
Sam Mendes
Martin Scorsese
Taika Waititi
---
Pedro Almodovar
Greta Gerwig
Todd Phillips
Best Actor
Joaquin Phoenix
Adam Driver
Leonardo DiCaprio
Taron Egerton
Eddie Murphy
---
Paul Walker Hauser
Antonio Banderas
Christian Bale
Best Actress
Renee Zellweger
Charlize Theron
Scarlett Johansson
Cyntha Erivo
Saoirse Ronan
---
Awkwafina
Lupita Nyong'o
Alfre Woodard
Best Supporting Actor
Brad Pitt
Al Pacino
Tom Hanks
Joe Pesci
Song Sang Ho
---
Alan Alda
Anthony Hopkins
Jamie Foxx
Best Supporting Actress
Laura Dern
Jennifer Lopez
Margo Robbie
Scarlett Johansson
Florence Pugh
---
Kathy Bates
Zhao Shuzhen
Annette Bening
Best Original Screenplay
Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Marriage Story
Parasite
Booksmart
Dolemite is My Name
---
Pain and Glory
The Farewell
Knives Out
Best Adapted Screenplay
Little Women
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
The Two Popes
---
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Richard Jewell
Just Mercy
Best Cinematography
1917
Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Joker
The Irishman
Ford vs. Ferrari
---
Parasite
The Lighthouse
Little Women
Best Editing
The Irishman
Parasite
Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Ford vs. Ferrari
Joker
---
Marriage Story
1917
Jojo Rabbit
Best Production Design
Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Parasite
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
1917
---
Little Women
Joker
Ford vs. Ferrari
Best Costume Design
Little Women
Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Rocketman
Dolemite is My Name
Judy
---
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Downton Abbey
Best Sound Editing
1917
Ford vs. Ferrari
Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Rocketman
---
Joker
Ad Astra
Avengers: End Game
Best Sound Mixing
1917
Ford vs. Ferrari
Rocketman
Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Ad Astra
---
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Avengers: End Game
Joker
Best Visual Effects
Avengers: End Game
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
The Lion King
The Irishman
1917
---
Atila: Battle Angel
Best Makeup
Bombshell
Joker
Judy
Rocketman
Dolemite is My Name
---
Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Nominations
Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood 11
The Irishman 10
Joker 9
1917 8
Marriage Story 7
Parasite 7
Ford vs. Ferrari 6
Little Women 6
Jojo Rabbit 6
Them's my predix, and I'm sticking to them. There will be surprises and omissions, how many I know not. The Maven has a busy day ahead, so she'll need a jolt along w/ the coffee.
My work is done here until February 9th (too damned early). Follow me on the socials for continuous bitching and analysis.
So Happy Oscar Nominations Day, y'all! And of course, Shalom and Seasons Screenings!
