Oscar Last Minute Update/Omissions

I failed to note two things in my previous Oscar Predix Blog:

1--The running time of the show will be 3 hours and 26 minutes.

2--My surprise upset for the evening I predict Judi Dench for Actress.

Waiting for Oscar, or The "Nothing [Else] To Be Done" Academy Awards: The MS Maven's Fearless Predix 2014

The Maven's High-Holy Day, aka The Oscars, is one day away, but enough already. The din of Oscar punditry, analyses, leaked ballots of Academy members is off the chain, more so than usual. Folks are all to hell because of the preferential ballot, meaning all a nominee needs to win is 50%+1 vote, making it harder to predict some categories.

Most years by this time, we pretty much can figure what will win in the major categories, though we always hope against hope for our personal favorites. Honestly, this year is different, and I am still stumped, yes like most the pundits, on three categories: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Original Screenplay. And w/ the exception Gravity, anyone who wins in these categories is okay by me. My three favorite films of the year are American Hustle,12 Years a Slave, and Her. So, if Her beats AH in Screenplay, I'm cool, if Lupita Nyong'o beats Jennifer Lawrence in Supporting Actress (or vice versa), I'm cool, and same goes for BP.

Last year was good, but this year was inordinately good collectively for films.  I've said of the nine BP nominees that nobody can really win because not a single one is a standout that can best represent the year in film. Is that saying the films are weak? No, but each film could in its own respective way represent the Hollywood ideal now. Is 12 Years a Slave a powerhouse message film that Oscar voters usually clamor for and want to feel good about voting for it? No, because word around the campfire is that some Academy members refused to watch the film because it was "too rough," which I'm not so sure about because let's face it, how many members watch the DVD screeners, let alone go see the films in private screenings or in the theater? They still vote for the studios that employed them, friends, etc., though I've heard about more viewership on the part of members than in recent years. Also, 12YAS is more subtle and not the typical liberal whitewash film; I see it as a brutally honest work of art (Director Steve McQueen was a graphic artist before he was a filmmaker, and it shows here quite beautifully).

Gravity is a beautiful package w/ nothing inside. Director Alfonso Cauron richly deserves to win Best Director and below-the-line awards because it is visually stunning, but Sandra Bullock is Spam in a can; even Clooney can't save this one for me, which is saying a lot. If a sci-fi film hasn't won before, and not saying there isn't a first time, but have a hard time believing voters will tick it off for Picture.

American Hustle is a better movie than folks give it credit for, but David O. Russell has made like Robert Altman and created a goofy, highly entertaining, yet spot-on tribute to 70's culture and politics. People say the film is too goofy, but then wasn't the late-70's? One word: Disco...

But the Oscar politics this year is in overdrive, and the analyses I've read put me in mind of the 2000 presidential election. That race was considered close before the November 2000 election, and we all know about the voting mess that ensued as a result. Sadly, we will never know how close the vote totals are in any category because the Academy will not allow vote totals to be released. I think this is bullshit, but then then if they were released, there would probably be more than a few egos crushed, not to mention endless arguments. And we know there are no recounts in Hollywood. (Sidebar: I don't go for cheap, but if it meant sleeping w/ a member of Price Waterhouse Coopers to get vote totals for any given year or category, I would do it. It's been one of my wishes that will never be fulfilled).

Without any further ado, I'm not waiting for Godot any longer so let's light this candle. Here are my fearless (and maybe foolish) predix. My picks are for what I think will win and the upset for each category, not whom I would vote for:

Best Picture: 12 Years a Slave
upset: Gravity

Best Director: Alfonso Cauron
upset: Steve McQueen

Best Actor: Matthew McConaughey
upset: Bruce Dern

Best Actress: Cate Blanchett
upset: Amy Adams

Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto
upset: Jonah Hill

Best Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong'o
upset: Jennifer Lawrence

Best Original Screenplay: American Hustle
upset: Her

Best Adapted Screenplay: 12 Years a Slave
upset: Philomena

Best Animated Feature: Frozen
upset: The Wind Rises

Best Foreign-Language Film: The Great Beauty
upset: The Missing Picture

Best Original Score: Gravity
upset: Philomena

Best Original Song: "Let It Go"--Frozen
upset: "Ordinary Love"--Mandela: The Long Walk to Freedom

Best Cinematography: Gravity
upset: Prisoners

Best Editing: Captain Phillips
upset: American Hustle

Best Production Design: The Great Gatsby
upset: 12 Years a Slave

Best Costume Design: American Hustle
upset: The Great Gatsby

Best Sound Mixing: Gravity
upset: Inside Llewyn Davis

Best Sound Editing: Gravity
upset: Captain Phillips

Best Visual Effects: Gravity
upset: The Hobbit

Best Makeup: The Dallas Buyers Club
upset: Bad Grandpa

Best Documentary Feature: 20 Feet From Stardom
upset: The Act of Killing

Best Documentary Short Subject: The Lady in Number 6
upset: Cave Digger

Best Live-Action Short: Helium
upset: The Voorman Problem

Best Animated Short: Get a Horse
upset: Mr. Hublot

The Wins

(Note: Win totals won't necessarily match my Predix)



 

Gravity                        6

12 Years a Slave        3

Dallas Buyers Club     3

American Hustle         2

The Great Gatsby       2

Frozen                        2

Captain Phillips          1

 

Now to the burning observations to cut through the media madness surrounding the voting as of late:

 

1--American Hustle and 12 Years a Slave are tossups in four categories: BP, Supporting Actress, Original and Adapted Screenplay, respectively, and Costume Design, causing a lot of second guessing... 

 

2--The largest problem I think in Supporting Actress as a result. Can Jen win two years in a row? Nyong'o has become the new "it" girl, and justifiably so. Both are just so young and so damned good and you feel both will be around for a long time. Usually w/ actors up in all four categories one usually wins, and the actors branch of the Academy love Hustle. Some have argued that those Academy members who didn't watch 12YAS all the way through or at all didn't see Nyong'o at all. I'm still agonizing over this category, and I'll be thrilled if either actress wins. But one thing may tip the scales in Nyong'o's favor: Usually if you win the Oscar that actor's next film is usually shitty. Non-Stop was just released yesterday, and Nyong'o plays a flight attendant. Watch June Squibb win the damn thing (she's good, though).

 

3--I would kill for Arcade Fire to win Score for Her. But that ain't gonna happen.

 

4--Gravity will win the most Oscars, and I have the film winning six. But just because it will sweep most the technical awards doesn't always translate to a BP win. Remember, The Aviator won five Oscars, but not for BP nor Director (the only major award was Blanchett). However, if you see Gravity win Production Design or especially Editing, game probably over. Same for 12YAS. If American Hustle wins Editing, anything could happen.

 

5--Though it was my favorite film of the year, I've had a gut feeling American Hustle could very well be shut out. I doubt it, but I think can win two Awards at most. I just want to see Russell win the damned thing at some point.

 

6--Films that will be shut out: Nebraska (sadly), Her (sadly x 2), Philomena, and The Wolf of Wall Street.

 

7--Now that the voting has opened up to the entire Academy membership and not just to an overseeing committee, I think this will favor 20 Feet From Stardom winning Documentary Feature over The Act of Killing; if the committee still voted the latter would win, but I've heard many members either abstained from voting this category or voted 20 Feet. I still find it odd that for years committee members would have to sign off that he/she saw all five nominated films for Documentary and Foreign-Language Film, but not for the entirety of the awards.

 

As usual, I'll be performing my annual rite of passage of posting and Tweeting on Facebook and Twitter. And once again, I didn't do an office pool because I need to save my money to restock more beer after tomorrow night.

 

Happy Oscar Sunday, y'all. And, of course, shalom...