That said, another reason I've dragged my feet is because Film Twitter lost its damned mind. This is my 40th year of Oscar prognostication, my first being The Deer Hunter year of 1978. Remember when Allan Carr made EMI and Universal pull the film and open in New York and Los Angeles? A huge controversy then, but now it's de rigueur. That's tiddlywinks compared to the controversies that have popped loose this go-round, be it about Green Book, Bohemian Rhapsody, whatever. A film isn't black enough, there aren't enough women, etc. The Academy membership is evolving, and changes will take time, and some of these changes we'll see tomorrow morning. I will say this: I think if Laura Dern had been elected Academy President over John Bailey, things would be better.
The Oscars have always been controversial and political, but our current cultural climate seems to have seeped into the Oscar race and caused a lot of personal finger-pointing and name-calling. As Sasha Stone says, they're just movies, they're just gold statues, and she's right. The controversies of the past were fun because we were looking at the Oscars from afar, poking fun. Now folks have made it a politically correct game and taking everything so personally, and it just plain sucks. Jesus, Larry, and Tito, they're just awards. Watch the movies (and the Oscars) and enjoy them, or not. There are more serious problems going on right now, folks.
My problems with the film year has nothing to do with the PC game, it's just a collectively mediocre year. Call it a shithole year. That's it. There's a smattering of good films among them: First Man, Black Panther, Vice, BlacKKKlansman. For me, Roma (exquisite, reminds me of one of my favorite films, Fellini's Amarcord), If Beale Street Could Talk (I'm biased, I teach James Baldwin a lot, plus I'm a huge Barry Jenkins and Regina King fan; she better well win Supporting Actress). A Star is Born is a revelation. I love Bradley Baby, but Lady Gaga is stunning; I never thought a fourth try at this story would be this good. And Actress will come down to Gaga and Glenn Close, just as stunning, which is tough. Too bad they can't split here as well.
And, like with a lot of years, many an Oscar bait film fizzled: Boy Erased, Beautiful Boy, Welcome to Marwen, Destroyer. Roma I don't think would be getting as much love as it is had it not been for Netflix. I see this year, for film and television, being a cultural shift in terms of how movies are marketed, distributed, and vamped for awards. The Hollywood Technology Paradox is that there are more platforms and outlets for watching and streaming, yet it's still hard to see the films. You still see five screens devoted to The Avengers. Calling the ghost of Allan Carr...
And Green Book. I'm not getting in the middle of the mess that erupted (plus, again, Sasha Stone wrote the best piece about this), but let me toss a bit of political theory at you as it pertains to the movies themselves and not the surrounding morass. Notice in turbulent cultural times that movies that win tend to be tame, pedestrian, and safe. During the horrific year of 1968 what won Best Picture? Oliver! In 1973? The Sting. In 1989? Driving Miss Daisy. So if Green Book should win (it won the PGA, but you can't go by this, not with recent history), I think it's Hollywood playing it safe with a film that touches the racial bases (yes, Driving Miss Daisy in reverse, as some have said) in a pedestrian way. Mahershala Ali may win Supporting Actor and could be Green Book's only Oscar, if at all. Ali at this point could read the phonebook and be great; plus, I think folks will think of True Detective, where I think he's actually better.
A few last-minute thoughts:
1--First Man will do well, and I think it will be ironic that it will probably be up for a slew of Awards, but not for Ryan Gosling nor Damien Chazelle.
2--I'm not sure of how much of a showing Crazy Rich Asians will have, if at all. Maybe Michelle Yeoh, maybe Picture.
3--I hope If Beale Street Could Talk is up for more than Supporting Actress and Adapted Screenplay. I think it will.
4--I also hope Paul Schrader is up for Screenplay as well. I can't believe he's never had a nomination; I had to look back to remember Taxi Driver wasn't up for Screenplay I think that changes tomorrow.
5--Now that Roger Deakins finally won last year: Is Wes Anderson ever going to win a goddamned Oscar? Isle of Dogs is one of his best films, so...
6--Bohemian Rhapsody. What to make of it. Two noms for sure are for Rami Malek for Actor and his teeth for Makeup. It will be up for some technical categories as well. Picture? I think so, despite this being a film where the performance is the movie. And this one has been a controversy as well, but Malik is untouched by this. It's between him and Bale, but let's not get ahead of ourselves here.
7--I'm not pulling the trigger, but my gut is telling me Sam Rockwell will get in over Richard E. Grant. I'm thinking neither Grant nor McCarthy will be up. I think the film peaked too early. Nothing against it, just my gut.
8--My one hope for tomorrow is that Yalitza Aparicio is up for Actress. Roma will be up for a ton, happily, and I hope she's caught up in that sweep.
9--My surprise nominee would be Viola Davis or Toni Collette for Actress. Watch it be Julia Roberts or Nicole Kidman. Jonathan Pryce for The Wife would be pretty goddamned sweet, but that ain't happening.
Enough already. As usual, I don't do the music, docs, or shorts, but my nomination totals will account for these. Here's my predix, five noms I think with three alternates. No more guessing, away we go:
Picture
Roma
Green Book
A Star is Born
BlacKKKlansman
The Favourite
Black Panther
If Beale Street Could Talk
Vice
---
Crazy Rich Asians
Director
Alfonso Cuaron
Bradley Cooper
Spike Lee
Adam McKay
Barry Jenkins
---
Yorgos Lanthimos
Peter Farrelly
Ryan Coogler
Actor
Christian Bale
Rami Malek
Bradley Cooper
Viggo Mortensen
Ethan Hawke
---
John David Washington
Willem Dafoe
Ryan Gosling
Actress
Glenn Close
Lady Gaga
Olivia Coleman
Yalitza Aparicio
Emily Blunt
---
Viola Davis
Toni Collette
Melissa McCarthy
Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali
Adam Driver
Sam Elliott
Timothee Chalamet
Richard E. Grant
---
Sam Rockwell
Michael B. Jordan
Brian Tyree Henry
Supporting Actress
Regina King
Amy Adams
Claire Foy
Emma Stone
Rachel Weisz
---
Margot Robbie
Michelle Yeoh
Nicole Kidman
Original Screenplay
The Favourite
Roma
Eighth Grade
First Reformed
Vice
---
Green Book
A Quiet Place
Isle of Dogs
Adapted Screenplay
If Beale Street Could Talk
BlacKKKLansman
A Star is Born
Black Panther
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
---
Crazy Rich Asians
The Death of Stalin
First Man
Cinematography
Roma
Cold War
A Star is Born
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Editing
A Star is Born
First Man
Roma
Black Panther
Vice
---
The Favourite
Green Book
BlacKKKlansman
Production Design
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma
Black Panther
First Man
---
Crazy Rich Asians
Mary, Queen of Scots
Bohemian Rhapsody
Costume Design
The Favourite
Mary, Queen of Scots
Bohemian Rhapsody
Black Panther
Mary Poppins Returns
---
A Star is Born
Crazy Rich Asians
Fantastic Beasts 2
Sound Editing
Roma
A Quiet Place
Black Panther
First Man
A Star is Born
---
Bohemian Rhapsody
Mission Impossible: Fallout
Avengers: Infinity War
Sound Mixing
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
A Star is Born
Roma
---
Mary Poppins Returns
Black Panther
Avengers: Infinity War
Visual Effects
Avengers: Infinity War
Black Panther
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Ready Player One
First Man
---
Mary Poppins Returns
Welcome to Marwen
Christopher Robin
Makeup
Vice
Mary, Queen of Scots
Bohemian Rhapsody
Nominations
A Star is Born 10
Roma 9
Black Panther 8
The Favourite 7
First Man 7
Vice. 6
Bohemian Rhapsody 6
Green Book 5
If Beale Street Could Talk 5
Them's my predix, and I'm sticking to them. As usual, there will be an omission or two and, hopefully, a happy surprise. We need something to jolt us awake come 8:20am in the morning (why do they keep moving the time, and at odd times at that? Fuzzy Oscar math...
The Maven's work is done until Oscar eve before February 24th, when the Great American Shitshow takes place (I'll reserve comment about the hosting controversy until I predict the winners).
Happy Oscar Nominations Day! And, of course, shalom, y'all!
