Oscar Sunday Day is my least favorite time in this season. The analysis of categories is at a fever pitch and the red carpet is just grotesque, a meat market. Why doesn't anyone talk about objectification w/ this?
I'm ready for the show and the wins, hopefully many I'm pulling for. But a last minute gut feeling is that Bradley Cooper may win. It may not be likely, and I cooled on this idea awhile back, but just hit me this morning.
The other observation: Patricia Arquette has man-hands. Watch when she grabs her Oscar, you'll see...
On with the show...
Sunday, February 22, 2015
Saturday, February 21, 2015
BIrdman and Boyhood and Budapest, Oh My! The MS Maven's Fearless Predix 2015
Birdman or Boyhood? Inarritu or Linklater? The Maven is worn out, for this is the weird nadir when everyone second guesses himself or herself between when the ballots are due and the ceremony. And I, like many, have wrestled w/ Picture, Director, and Actor. But you have to remember, many Academy members don't geek out like some of us, voting for friends, studios, or by knee-jerk.
That said, here are a few observations before my predix:
1--I said before the SAGs that Arquette could possibly be Boyhood's only Oscar. It's a gut feeling I've had, and some folks have indicated they see the film as "trickery." I wouldn't go that far, but I can see where they are coming from. I watched the film again last night, and I like it immensely the way I like most of Linklater's films, which is my point. Translated, how do you reward consistency? I've always said the litmus test for a Best Picture winner is, will it be remembered 20 years from now? The one film I think will be--The Grand Budapest Hotel--may be the one, but has no chance in hell of winning BP.
2--Which leads to Birdman, which is quite memorable and I think, more than Boyhood, will stand the test of time and hold up over the years. Most films about the theater and acting don't win, which makes this film a bit of an anomaly. And Inarritu has been a consistent director as well (and am I the only person who still likes/defends Babel?). And keep this in mind: between both films, if BP and Director split, both Linklater and Inarritu win Oscars.
3--Actor. Like many, I thought Michael Keaton was a slam-dunk. Then I saw The Theory of Everything. I didn't think much going in, expecting a by-the-numbers biopic (which, by the way The Imitation Game is; save for Benedict Cumberbatch, Knightly, and the screenplay, the film's last half hour is its saving grace. Morten Tyldum has no business being up for Director and will be working an In and Out Burger in no time. Harvey's pushed a bit hard w/ this one, but it will win Adapted Screenplay). I didn't expect to be moved. There is an intangible quality that Eddie Redmayne brings to the role, a twinkle in his eye showing a mind always at work when his body isn't. I think Bradley Cooper is a dead-ringer for Chris Kyle and is soulful in his performance, staying above the political fray to be true to Kyle's spirit. And goddamn I want to see Keaton win, because his performance is every bit as nuanced as Redmayne's, albeit from an entirely different angle. But I have to tip the scales to Redmayne. It's simply a beautifully nuanced performance that isn't predictable in the least. But here's the question I've been left with: How can Birdman win BP and Director and Keaton not win Actor when it's an actor's film? I won't be upset w/ either winning.
4--I hope my other gut feeling does not occur, that The Grand Budapest Hotel will win several Oscars (four by my count), but Anderson loses Original Screenplay I hope I'm wrong. Maybe this is where Linklater gets his Oscar but doubtful. I want Anderson to finally win an Oscar.
5--I kept thinking there would be a BP/Director split but I'm thinking not at this point. If it splits anyway, I think Boyhood for BP and Inarritu for Director, not vice versa.
6--I hope there is one major surprise, but I'm not going to try to guess this one. I will say this: If Boyhood wins Editing, it probably wins BP. If Whiplash wins it (which I'm predicting), lookout!
I'm as guilty as all the other blowhards overdoing it at this point. I have nothing left except my Predix. The shit show (thanks Craig Kennedy for this term, I also knicknamed one of my former students this, and she loves the moniker!) is 24 hours away, so with no further ado, here's mine (my picks and the upsets):
Best Picture: Birdman
upset: Boyhood
Best Director: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu
upset: Richard Linklater
Best Actor: Eddie Redmayne
upset: Michael Keaton
Best Actress: Julianne Moore
upset: Rosamund Pike
Best Supporting Actor: J K Simmons
upset: Edward Norton
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette
upset: Emma Stone
Best Original Screenplay: The Grand Budapest Hotel
upset: Birdman
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Imitation Game
upset: American Sniper
Best Animated Feature: Big Hero 6
upset: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Best Foreign-Language Film: Ida
upset: Leviathan
Best Score: The Theory of Everything
upset: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Song: "Glory"
upset: "I'm Not Gonna Miss You"
Best Cinematography: Birdman
upset: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Editing: Whiplash
upset: American Sniper
Best Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
upset: Into the Woods
Best Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
upset: Into the Woods
Best Sound Editing: American Sniper
upset: Birdman
Best Sound Mixing: Whiplash
upset: American Sniper
Best Visual Effects: Interstellar
upset: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Best Makeup: The Grand Budapest Hotel
upset: Foxcatcher
Best Documentary Feature: Citizenfour
upset: Virunga
Best Documentary Short Subject: Crisis Hotline
upset: Joanna
Best Live-Action Short: The Phone Call
upset: Boogaloo and Graham
Best Animated Short: Feast
upset: The Dam Keeper
The Theory of Everything 2
Boyhood 1
The Imitation Game 1
Running Time: 3 hours, 32 minutes
As usual, I'll be performing my annual rite of passage of posting and Tweeting on Facebook and Twitter. And once again, I didn't do an office pool because I need to save my money to restock more beer after tomorrow night.
That said, here are a few observations before my predix:
1--I said before the SAGs that Arquette could possibly be Boyhood's only Oscar. It's a gut feeling I've had, and some folks have indicated they see the film as "trickery." I wouldn't go that far, but I can see where they are coming from. I watched the film again last night, and I like it immensely the way I like most of Linklater's films, which is my point. Translated, how do you reward consistency? I've always said the litmus test for a Best Picture winner is, will it be remembered 20 years from now? The one film I think will be--The Grand Budapest Hotel--may be the one, but has no chance in hell of winning BP.
2--Which leads to Birdman, which is quite memorable and I think, more than Boyhood, will stand the test of time and hold up over the years. Most films about the theater and acting don't win, which makes this film a bit of an anomaly. And Inarritu has been a consistent director as well (and am I the only person who still likes/defends Babel?). And keep this in mind: between both films, if BP and Director split, both Linklater and Inarritu win Oscars.
3--Actor. Like many, I thought Michael Keaton was a slam-dunk. Then I saw The Theory of Everything. I didn't think much going in, expecting a by-the-numbers biopic (which, by the way The Imitation Game is; save for Benedict Cumberbatch, Knightly, and the screenplay, the film's last half hour is its saving grace. Morten Tyldum has no business being up for Director and will be working an In and Out Burger in no time. Harvey's pushed a bit hard w/ this one, but it will win Adapted Screenplay). I didn't expect to be moved. There is an intangible quality that Eddie Redmayne brings to the role, a twinkle in his eye showing a mind always at work when his body isn't. I think Bradley Cooper is a dead-ringer for Chris Kyle and is soulful in his performance, staying above the political fray to be true to Kyle's spirit. And goddamn I want to see Keaton win, because his performance is every bit as nuanced as Redmayne's, albeit from an entirely different angle. But I have to tip the scales to Redmayne. It's simply a beautifully nuanced performance that isn't predictable in the least. But here's the question I've been left with: How can Birdman win BP and Director and Keaton not win Actor when it's an actor's film? I won't be upset w/ either winning.
4--I hope my other gut feeling does not occur, that The Grand Budapest Hotel will win several Oscars (four by my count), but Anderson loses Original Screenplay I hope I'm wrong. Maybe this is where Linklater gets his Oscar but doubtful. I want Anderson to finally win an Oscar.
5--I kept thinking there would be a BP/Director split but I'm thinking not at this point. If it splits anyway, I think Boyhood for BP and Inarritu for Director, not vice versa.
6--I hope there is one major surprise, but I'm not going to try to guess this one. I will say this: If Boyhood wins Editing, it probably wins BP. If Whiplash wins it (which I'm predicting), lookout!
I'm as guilty as all the other blowhards overdoing it at this point. I have nothing left except my Predix. The shit show (thanks Craig Kennedy for this term, I also knicknamed one of my former students this, and she loves the moniker!) is 24 hours away, so with no further ado, here's mine (my picks and the upsets):
Best Picture: Birdman
upset: Boyhood
Best Director: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu
upset: Richard Linklater
Best Actor: Eddie Redmayne
upset: Michael Keaton
Best Actress: Julianne Moore
upset: Rosamund Pike
Best Supporting Actor: J K Simmons
upset: Edward Norton
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette
upset: Emma Stone
Best Original Screenplay: The Grand Budapest Hotel
upset: Birdman
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Imitation Game
upset: American Sniper
Best Animated Feature: Big Hero 6
upset: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Best Foreign-Language Film: Ida
upset: Leviathan
Best Score: The Theory of Everything
upset: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Song: "Glory"
upset: "I'm Not Gonna Miss You"
Best Cinematography: Birdman
upset: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Editing: Whiplash
upset: American Sniper
Best Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
upset: Into the Woods
Best Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
upset: Into the Woods
Best Sound Editing: American Sniper
upset: Birdman
Best Sound Mixing: Whiplash
upset: American Sniper
Best Visual Effects: Interstellar
upset: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Best Makeup: The Grand Budapest Hotel
upset: Foxcatcher
Best Documentary Feature: Citizenfour
upset: Virunga
Best Documentary Short Subject: Crisis Hotline
upset: Joanna
Best Live-Action Short: The Phone Call
upset: Boogaloo and Graham
Best Animated Short: Feast
upset: The Dam Keeper
The Wins
(Note: Win totals may not line up w/ my Predix)
The Grand Budapest Hotel 4
Birdman 3
Whiplash 3The Theory of Everything 2
Boyhood 1
The Imitation Game 1
Running Time: 3 hours, 32 minutes
As usual, I'll be performing my annual rite of passage of posting and Tweeting on Facebook and Twitter. And once again, I didn't do an office pool because I need to save my money to restock more beer after tomorrow night.
Happy Oscar Sunday, y'all. And, of course, shalom...
Wednesday, February 11, 2015
Oscar Madness 2014 (Where's Your Film?), or Seven Ways to Oscar Sunday
We are 11 days out from The Main Event (anyone remember that film?), and the saga that is As the Oscar Turns has seen some seismic shifts as of late. These are just some random thoughts I have at this state in the Oscar race, and they are just that--thoughts. My predix will come in nine days, but these are just some matters to consider:
1--The love for Boyhood has faded faster than a Valentine's date at Waffle House, while Birdman has racked up the major guild awards in dramatic fashion. But in winning the trifecta of SAG, the PGA, and DGA, does this mean the film is a slam-dunk to win Picture and Director? I don't think so, and I've read what's out there in the Twitterverse, blogs, and beyond to try to put my finger on where this surge began, because most films about actors don't win Oscars, especially Picture or Director. Perhaps it's because voters actually watched the screeners, precisely the reason Selma didn't get more nominations (though I think the film until its final half hour is uneven). Boyhood came out on video last month, but not sure that's helped here.
Some I've talked to see Boyhood as a movie of trickery, what w/ the filming over a dozen years. It's a solid film, and I still don't understand why no love for Eller Coltrane, the heart of the film. It's a tad long in spots, but don't parts of your life feel that way?
One could argue that Birdman is just as much a gimmick, albeit a more impressive one, what with the film being one long tracking shot. It works beautifully w/out taking away from the fine ensemble and smart screenplay. Emmanual Lubezki is a lock to win, despite having just won last year for Gravity. But will voters tick off their ballots for Birdman because they are impressed by Alajandro Inarritu's "magically realisitic" approach without going too far off the rails? He creates a narrative that falls into the lap of what America (fuck yeah!) represents, hitting rock bottom and trying to find redemption in your final act (of sorts). Inarritu has yet to make a bad film in my eyes (and I think I'm the only person who is still a champion for Babel), but Richard Linklater's career, though I largely like most his films and am a fan, has been quite uneven. And to direct the same actors for 12 years is not something just any director can pull off seamlessly, but would this speak more for the editor than the director? The film is a lot like most Linklater films, quiet contemplations as if walking down a backroad thinking out loud about life. And remember, kids, Linklater did some tracking shots of his own in Slacker, still possibly my favorite still.
2--So where does this leave us? Exactly where I began because I still have no fucking clue what will win Best Picture. Some are decrying those two words we hear uttered annually, in hopes of seeing an upset: vote-splitting. Could it happen? Sure. Will it happen? Nope, although this year would be ripe for such a surprise (remember when Brokeback Mountain was a lead-pipe cinch and Crash won?)Some think votes may kick to Selma or American Sniper, but many still have not seen Selma and American Sniper because the box-office beast that could not be (and still barely has been) contained. But I think it may win either or both Sound awards and perhaps Cooper (will get to this in a moment). And where I thought this may be a year of spreading the love among multiple films, the race is shaping up between just a couple that may win multiple awards, primarily Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel.
Speaking of which, Budapest is a film that went from hoping to be nominated for Production Design to being 99 percent certain it will win this category and Makeup, but also maybe Costume Design (would love to see Inherent Vice win this) and maybe Score, and possibly, hopefully Wes Anderson for Original Screenplay. The film could win the most trophies of the night and Wes Baby could still walk away without a damned Oscar!
3--Watch Editing and what wins. Usually Editing and Picture line up but not always (Black Hawk Down over Chicago, both still two of the best edited films I've seen). But if Whiplash should win here, watch out! If Boyhood wins, still not sure it will win Picture. Sorry to sound like every other cynic, but the last time I saw this much deflation from front runner to possible also-ran was in 2001, when Sissy Spacek was seemingly a lock to win Actress and Halle Berry (thrillingly!) won.
4--Could Patricia Arquette be Boyhood's only Oscar? This idea popped into my head before the SAGs. Being up for only six awards, it's possible. And it's J K Simmons's Oscar to lose at this point, and he clearly deserves it because, though I like the film a lot, he and Miles Teller take a very weak screenplay and make is sing, creating the "jazz" in the film (pun intended).
5--Julianne Moore is finally going to win the goddamned Oscar. Period. Solid category, with Reese Witherspoon being the most surprising performance, far better in Wild than in Walk the Line (which is Phoenix's film). And Rosamund Pike's is possibly the performance of the year (along w/ Jessica Chastian in A Most Violent Year, a film, along w/ Gone Girl, that was hosed) for me, but Moore (and, yes, Kristin Stewart, who also should have been nominated) is stunning in a mediocre film; the last scene is devastating. Who else is up?
6--But could there be an upset in Supporting Actress? It's the category where it usually happens. Some have expressed love for Laura Dern, and she (as well as Reese) is excellent in Wild, but I'm not buying the argument that the Academy wants award her for her pounding the Awards circuit pavement for her dad Bruce last year. He didn't win, did he, good though he was, and I still would change my vote daily from last years Actors, a solid crop where usually Actress is the category bursting at the seams.
7--Which leads to the most problematic category, Actor. It seems down to Michael Keaton and Eddie Redmayne, and this is a case for me in which either actor could win, and I would be thrilled. Both gave very complex, physical, and heartfelt performance, albeit coming from two entirely different planes. Both actors were seamless and moving in roles inherent with layers of irony. Keaton manages the multiple roles within his film in amazing fashion, and Redmayne captures the essence of Stephen Hawking with a twinkle of wonder in his eye as he negotiates his way through Hawking's illness. And The Theory of Everything was a revelation for me; I went into it thinking it would be a diorama with accents but came out incredibly moved by one of the better biopics I've seen in years. I've personally never been more torn with whom I would vote for. And as much as I have the hots for Bradley Baby, he could well be the spoiler here; a tremendous physical actor anyway, Cooper is a dead-ringer for Chris Kyle, and I never once thought I was watching Cooper. I keep thinking if voters want to reward Sniper it would be here, plus actors pushed hard for Cooper to be nominated, which would explain why, along with the late release of the film/screeners, he wasn't up for a SAG or a Golden Globe. And the film has lost a bit of steam in chattering circles, plus the trial of Chris Kyle's killer just began, so not sure of what impact, if any, this may have since this film, one that turned into a political Rorchach Test that seems to have been more massively polarizing than most expected,
Many are predicting Redmayne to win, and I'm cool with that. But my question is if, in fact, Birdman tends to sweep many categories, how can a film centered on Michael Keaton's performance win multiple Oscars, including possibly both Picture and Director, and not pick up a win for Actor along the way? That would be as ironic as Inarritu's film...
So to quote Maxine Nightingale (where is she now?), we're right back where we started from. We have little over a week yet. All but the WGA have weighed in guildwise, and now we're in that strange nadir where everyone overthinks everything because there's nothing else to be done until the ceremony. Besides, William Goldman said, "Nobody knows anything," and nor does The Maven...
1--The love for Boyhood has faded faster than a Valentine's date at Waffle House, while Birdman has racked up the major guild awards in dramatic fashion. But in winning the trifecta of SAG, the PGA, and DGA, does this mean the film is a slam-dunk to win Picture and Director? I don't think so, and I've read what's out there in the Twitterverse, blogs, and beyond to try to put my finger on where this surge began, because most films about actors don't win Oscars, especially Picture or Director. Perhaps it's because voters actually watched the screeners, precisely the reason Selma didn't get more nominations (though I think the film until its final half hour is uneven). Boyhood came out on video last month, but not sure that's helped here.
Some I've talked to see Boyhood as a movie of trickery, what w/ the filming over a dozen years. It's a solid film, and I still don't understand why no love for Eller Coltrane, the heart of the film. It's a tad long in spots, but don't parts of your life feel that way?
One could argue that Birdman is just as much a gimmick, albeit a more impressive one, what with the film being one long tracking shot. It works beautifully w/out taking away from the fine ensemble and smart screenplay. Emmanual Lubezki is a lock to win, despite having just won last year for Gravity. But will voters tick off their ballots for Birdman because they are impressed by Alajandro Inarritu's "magically realisitic" approach without going too far off the rails? He creates a narrative that falls into the lap of what America (fuck yeah!) represents, hitting rock bottom and trying to find redemption in your final act (of sorts). Inarritu has yet to make a bad film in my eyes (and I think I'm the only person who is still a champion for Babel), but Richard Linklater's career, though I largely like most his films and am a fan, has been quite uneven. And to direct the same actors for 12 years is not something just any director can pull off seamlessly, but would this speak more for the editor than the director? The film is a lot like most Linklater films, quiet contemplations as if walking down a backroad thinking out loud about life. And remember, kids, Linklater did some tracking shots of his own in Slacker, still possibly my favorite still.
2--So where does this leave us? Exactly where I began because I still have no fucking clue what will win Best Picture. Some are decrying those two words we hear uttered annually, in hopes of seeing an upset: vote-splitting. Could it happen? Sure. Will it happen? Nope, although this year would be ripe for such a surprise (remember when Brokeback Mountain was a lead-pipe cinch and Crash won?)Some think votes may kick to Selma or American Sniper, but many still have not seen Selma and American Sniper because the box-office beast that could not be (and still barely has been) contained. But I think it may win either or both Sound awards and perhaps Cooper (will get to this in a moment). And where I thought this may be a year of spreading the love among multiple films, the race is shaping up between just a couple that may win multiple awards, primarily Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel.
Speaking of which, Budapest is a film that went from hoping to be nominated for Production Design to being 99 percent certain it will win this category and Makeup, but also maybe Costume Design (would love to see Inherent Vice win this) and maybe Score, and possibly, hopefully Wes Anderson for Original Screenplay. The film could win the most trophies of the night and Wes Baby could still walk away without a damned Oscar!
3--Watch Editing and what wins. Usually Editing and Picture line up but not always (Black Hawk Down over Chicago, both still two of the best edited films I've seen). But if Whiplash should win here, watch out! If Boyhood wins, still not sure it will win Picture. Sorry to sound like every other cynic, but the last time I saw this much deflation from front runner to possible also-ran was in 2001, when Sissy Spacek was seemingly a lock to win Actress and Halle Berry (thrillingly!) won.
4--Could Patricia Arquette be Boyhood's only Oscar? This idea popped into my head before the SAGs. Being up for only six awards, it's possible. And it's J K Simmons's Oscar to lose at this point, and he clearly deserves it because, though I like the film a lot, he and Miles Teller take a very weak screenplay and make is sing, creating the "jazz" in the film (pun intended).
5--Julianne Moore is finally going to win the goddamned Oscar. Period. Solid category, with Reese Witherspoon being the most surprising performance, far better in Wild than in Walk the Line (which is Phoenix's film). And Rosamund Pike's is possibly the performance of the year (along w/ Jessica Chastian in A Most Violent Year, a film, along w/ Gone Girl, that was hosed) for me, but Moore (and, yes, Kristin Stewart, who also should have been nominated) is stunning in a mediocre film; the last scene is devastating. Who else is up?
6--But could there be an upset in Supporting Actress? It's the category where it usually happens. Some have expressed love for Laura Dern, and she (as well as Reese) is excellent in Wild, but I'm not buying the argument that the Academy wants award her for her pounding the Awards circuit pavement for her dad Bruce last year. He didn't win, did he, good though he was, and I still would change my vote daily from last years Actors, a solid crop where usually Actress is the category bursting at the seams.
7--Which leads to the most problematic category, Actor. It seems down to Michael Keaton and Eddie Redmayne, and this is a case for me in which either actor could win, and I would be thrilled. Both gave very complex, physical, and heartfelt performance, albeit coming from two entirely different planes. Both actors were seamless and moving in roles inherent with layers of irony. Keaton manages the multiple roles within his film in amazing fashion, and Redmayne captures the essence of Stephen Hawking with a twinkle of wonder in his eye as he negotiates his way through Hawking's illness. And The Theory of Everything was a revelation for me; I went into it thinking it would be a diorama with accents but came out incredibly moved by one of the better biopics I've seen in years. I've personally never been more torn with whom I would vote for. And as much as I have the hots for Bradley Baby, he could well be the spoiler here; a tremendous physical actor anyway, Cooper is a dead-ringer for Chris Kyle, and I never once thought I was watching Cooper. I keep thinking if voters want to reward Sniper it would be here, plus actors pushed hard for Cooper to be nominated, which would explain why, along with the late release of the film/screeners, he wasn't up for a SAG or a Golden Globe. And the film has lost a bit of steam in chattering circles, plus the trial of Chris Kyle's killer just began, so not sure of what impact, if any, this may have since this film, one that turned into a political Rorchach Test that seems to have been more massively polarizing than most expected,
Many are predicting Redmayne to win, and I'm cool with that. But my question is if, in fact, Birdman tends to sweep many categories, how can a film centered on Michael Keaton's performance win multiple Oscars, including possibly both Picture and Director, and not pick up a win for Actor along the way? That would be as ironic as Inarritu's film...
So to quote Maxine Nightingale (where is she now?), we're right back where we started from. We have little over a week yet. All but the WGA have weighed in guildwise, and now we're in that strange nadir where everyone overthinks everything because there's nothing else to be done until the ceremony. Besides, William Goldman said, "Nobody knows anything," and nor does The Maven...
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