But as I previously mentioned, I like the shortened season.Yes, #FilmTwitter played the usual "what if" games and dug too deep into the minutiae, but what if we had another month? I would lose my mind even more so than I am now. But on Oscar Eve, even the best pundits out there (I see you, Sasha Stone and Brian Perry) are second-guessing their picks. That gets your attention! Part of this is the weird nadir between when the ballots are due and the ceremony itself, where there's mostly silence until the night before. But this go-round it's because many of the categories are an embarrassment of riches filmwise, and it's hard to figure out any patterns of how people voted. Trying to figure this out is like trying to develop a vaccine for the Coronavirus.
I love the blind ballots, when during the nadir Academy members spill the beans on what they love, how they voted, and especially what they don't like. To that point, votes in various categories are somewhat consistent, but many are very scattered. I know some Academy members here, and they fall into this as well. But we cannot go by this. Funny how we forget that the members don't meet as a group to vote. If you polled "FilmTwitter and put out all the blind ballots you wanted, it still won't tell you anything. In 2016, folks went nuts w/ the polling, and look at what we wound up with in the White House.
I think this will definitely be a year of spreading the wealth, where most of the films will win something. The one film that will be hosed is The Irishman. I've studied Scorsese's work for almost 40 years, and this is far from his best effort. I do think a lot of folks checked out due to the length, this, despite being on Netflix. And I love me some Thelma Schoonmaker, but even she couldn't handle this one. I like the film, but it needed to be tightened up. Now watch her win for Editing.
So here is the twisted irony of this year's crop: the four acting categories are complete locks (and whoever said Dern is the biggest lock of the four is a bit amiss; if there is an upset w/ any of the four, it's Supporting Actress, possibly Johansson), but all the other categories are up for grabs, even down to Documentary Feature. It and Song are bloodbaths, and the pundits have made me scramble to see if I want to change my picks. I going to stay stat, because I don't get the feeling there will be a great wave in the technical categories.
However, if Parasite wins Production Design (that house, man!) and especially Editing, as my dad used to say, Katie bar the door. I have heard too many members fawning over the film, especially the actor's branch, and I don't know if I buy that a lot of members didn't watch it because of subtitles. You have to admit, this year is a bit of a wild card because of the new Academy members. Plus, some members didn't vote in all categories.
And to this point, I want to say that I don't understand why folks keep picking on Renee Zellweger. If it's not her accent, it's something else. I kept up w/ the production of Judy from the beginning, and I figured she would be good. But keep in mind that what's making for a complete sweep and probably the Oscar tomorrow for Zellweger are the scenes toward the end of the film that have not been show outside of it, not unlike the whipping scene that nabbed the Oscar for Lupita Nyong'o. But something snapped loose in her, like it did for Robert Duvall in The Apostle, Daniel Day-Lewis in There Will Be Blood, and Gena Rowlands in A Woman Under the Influence. She's always been terrific even in shitty films (a mark of a great actor, look at Rod Steiger, for Christ's sake), she's quirky as hell and embraces it, and rolls with the flow. This makes for great acting, and she's flat-out fucking brilliant here. She's had the time of her life and has been living out loud this awards season, and she deserves all of this.
Same goes for Brad Pitt, sans the quirkiness. His is also a performance for the ages. He reminds me so much of early-70's Robert Redford. I feel like he could have just walked onto the set of Jeremiah Johnson and nailed it. He's the cat's ass.
But what to do w/ Parasite and 1917? I want Bong Joon Ho to win Director. I actually want him and the film to win as many as possible, (a massive #BongHit, right, Matt Neglia?), but I think Picture and Director split, w/ Sam Mendes winning Director. If this were flipped, I would be cool w/ that, too. These two films will probably win the most trophies, but it won't be a high tally. I'm thinking Parasite and 1917 will both win four. But Bong has been a blast, and he and Taika Waititi have been the Laurel and Hardy of the awards season. Their films are both taking home the Screenplay Oscars.
Y'all realize that Quentin Tarantino may go home empty-handed for possibly his best film (next to Jackie Brown and Pulp Fiction)? Hate this! And Margot Robbie should have been up for this, not Bombshell.
And now that Roger Deakins is going to win his second Oscar, after decades of not winning anything: When are Wes Anderson (he has a new film in 2020) and Diane Warren going to win a goddamned Oscar?
And, for the record, the wrong person won the Oscar for Walk the Line. That was Joaquin Phoenix's film. But he'll win here to make up for it. And it may only be one of two Oscars Joker wins.
I got nothing else. About three high-gravity beers in so as to stop second-guessing my picks, here's how I think the awards will go:
Picture: Parasite
upset: 1917
Director: Sam Mendes
upset: Bong Joon Ho
Actor: Joaquin Phoenix
upset: Adam Driver
Actress: Renee Zellweger
upset: Charlize Theron
Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt
upset: Joe Pesci
Supporting Actress: Laura Dern
upset: Scarlett Johansson
Original Screenplay: Parasite
upset: Once Upon a Time...In Hollywood
Adapted Screenplay: Jojo Rabbit
upset: Little Women
Foreign-Language Film: Parasite
upset: Pain and Glory
Animated Feature: Toy Story 4
upset: Klaus
Original Song: "Stand Up"
upset: "I'm Gonna Love Me Again"
Score: Joker
upset: Marriage Story
Cinematography: 1917
upset: Once Upon a Time...In Hollywood
Editing: Parasite
upset: Ford vs. Ferrari
Production Design: Once Upon a Time...In Hollywood
upset: Parasite (that house!)
Costume Design: Little Women
upset: Once Upon a Time...In Hollywood
Sound Editing: Ford vs. Ferrari
upset: 1917
Sound Mixing: 1917
upset: Ford vs. Ferrari
Visual Effects: 1917
upset: Avengers: Endgame
Makeup: Judy
upset: Bombshell
Documentary Feature: American Factory
upset: For Sama
Documentary Short: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone
upset: St Louis Superman
Animated Short: Hair Love
upset: Kitbull
Live-Action Short: Brotherhood
upset: Saria
Wins
1917 5
Parasite. 4
Once Upon a Time 3
Joker 2
Judy 2
Ford vs. Ferrari 2
Marriage Story 1
Little Women 1
Jojo Rabbit 1
Running Time: 3 Hours 44 Minutes
As usual, the Wins totals are separate from the other predictions.
That's it. Them's my predix, and (I think) I'm sticking to them. Per usual, The Maven will be venting the annual rite of passage on the socials (Facebook and @Franster23 on Twitter), so follow along for the ride or mute me until Tuesday. Let me know your thoughts. Again, no Oscar pool this year, so blame Trump.
I hope the show is as much of a blast as this season has been!
Happy Oscar Sunday, y'all. And, of course, Shalom!
