Oscar Sunday Day is my least favorite time in this season. The analysis of categories is at a fever pitch and the red carpet is just grotesque, a meat market. Why doesn't anyone talk about objectification w/ this?
I'm ready for the show and the wins, hopefully many I'm pulling for. But a last minute gut feeling is that Bradley Cooper may win. It may not be likely, and I cooled on this idea awhile back, but just hit me this morning.
The other observation: Patricia Arquette has man-hands. Watch when she grabs her Oscar, you'll see...
On with the show...
Sunday, February 22, 2015
Saturday, February 21, 2015
BIrdman and Boyhood and Budapest, Oh My! The MS Maven's Fearless Predix 2015
Birdman or Boyhood? Inarritu or Linklater? The Maven is worn out, for this is the weird nadir when everyone second guesses himself or herself between when the ballots are due and the ceremony. And I, like many, have wrestled w/ Picture, Director, and Actor. But you have to remember, many Academy members don't geek out like some of us, voting for friends, studios, or by knee-jerk.
That said, here are a few observations before my predix:
1--I said before the SAGs that Arquette could possibly be Boyhood's only Oscar. It's a gut feeling I've had, and some folks have indicated they see the film as "trickery." I wouldn't go that far, but I can see where they are coming from. I watched the film again last night, and I like it immensely the way I like most of Linklater's films, which is my point. Translated, how do you reward consistency? I've always said the litmus test for a Best Picture winner is, will it be remembered 20 years from now? The one film I think will be--The Grand Budapest Hotel--may be the one, but has no chance in hell of winning BP.
2--Which leads to Birdman, which is quite memorable and I think, more than Boyhood, will stand the test of time and hold up over the years. Most films about the theater and acting don't win, which makes this film a bit of an anomaly. And Inarritu has been a consistent director as well (and am I the only person who still likes/defends Babel?). And keep this in mind: between both films, if BP and Director split, both Linklater and Inarritu win Oscars.
3--Actor. Like many, I thought Michael Keaton was a slam-dunk. Then I saw The Theory of Everything. I didn't think much going in, expecting a by-the-numbers biopic (which, by the way The Imitation Game is; save for Benedict Cumberbatch, Knightly, and the screenplay, the film's last half hour is its saving grace. Morten Tyldum has no business being up for Director and will be working an In and Out Burger in no time. Harvey's pushed a bit hard w/ this one, but it will win Adapted Screenplay). I didn't expect to be moved. There is an intangible quality that Eddie Redmayne brings to the role, a twinkle in his eye showing a mind always at work when his body isn't. I think Bradley Cooper is a dead-ringer for Chris Kyle and is soulful in his performance, staying above the political fray to be true to Kyle's spirit. And goddamn I want to see Keaton win, because his performance is every bit as nuanced as Redmayne's, albeit from an entirely different angle. But I have to tip the scales to Redmayne. It's simply a beautifully nuanced performance that isn't predictable in the least. But here's the question I've been left with: How can Birdman win BP and Director and Keaton not win Actor when it's an actor's film? I won't be upset w/ either winning.
4--I hope my other gut feeling does not occur, that The Grand Budapest Hotel will win several Oscars (four by my count), but Anderson loses Original Screenplay I hope I'm wrong. Maybe this is where Linklater gets his Oscar but doubtful. I want Anderson to finally win an Oscar.
5--I kept thinking there would be a BP/Director split but I'm thinking not at this point. If it splits anyway, I think Boyhood for BP and Inarritu for Director, not vice versa.
6--I hope there is one major surprise, but I'm not going to try to guess this one. I will say this: If Boyhood wins Editing, it probably wins BP. If Whiplash wins it (which I'm predicting), lookout!
I'm as guilty as all the other blowhards overdoing it at this point. I have nothing left except my Predix. The shit show (thanks Craig Kennedy for this term, I also knicknamed one of my former students this, and she loves the moniker!) is 24 hours away, so with no further ado, here's mine (my picks and the upsets):
Best Picture: Birdman
upset: Boyhood
Best Director: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu
upset: Richard Linklater
Best Actor: Eddie Redmayne
upset: Michael Keaton
Best Actress: Julianne Moore
upset: Rosamund Pike
Best Supporting Actor: J K Simmons
upset: Edward Norton
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette
upset: Emma Stone
Best Original Screenplay: The Grand Budapest Hotel
upset: Birdman
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Imitation Game
upset: American Sniper
Best Animated Feature: Big Hero 6
upset: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Best Foreign-Language Film: Ida
upset: Leviathan
Best Score: The Theory of Everything
upset: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Song: "Glory"
upset: "I'm Not Gonna Miss You"
Best Cinematography: Birdman
upset: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Editing: Whiplash
upset: American Sniper
Best Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
upset: Into the Woods
Best Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
upset: Into the Woods
Best Sound Editing: American Sniper
upset: Birdman
Best Sound Mixing: Whiplash
upset: American Sniper
Best Visual Effects: Interstellar
upset: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Best Makeup: The Grand Budapest Hotel
upset: Foxcatcher
Best Documentary Feature: Citizenfour
upset: Virunga
Best Documentary Short Subject: Crisis Hotline
upset: Joanna
Best Live-Action Short: The Phone Call
upset: Boogaloo and Graham
Best Animated Short: Feast
upset: The Dam Keeper
The Theory of Everything 2
Boyhood 1
The Imitation Game 1
Running Time: 3 hours, 32 minutes
As usual, I'll be performing my annual rite of passage of posting and Tweeting on Facebook and Twitter. And once again, I didn't do an office pool because I need to save my money to restock more beer after tomorrow night.
That said, here are a few observations before my predix:
1--I said before the SAGs that Arquette could possibly be Boyhood's only Oscar. It's a gut feeling I've had, and some folks have indicated they see the film as "trickery." I wouldn't go that far, but I can see where they are coming from. I watched the film again last night, and I like it immensely the way I like most of Linklater's films, which is my point. Translated, how do you reward consistency? I've always said the litmus test for a Best Picture winner is, will it be remembered 20 years from now? The one film I think will be--The Grand Budapest Hotel--may be the one, but has no chance in hell of winning BP.
2--Which leads to Birdman, which is quite memorable and I think, more than Boyhood, will stand the test of time and hold up over the years. Most films about the theater and acting don't win, which makes this film a bit of an anomaly. And Inarritu has been a consistent director as well (and am I the only person who still likes/defends Babel?). And keep this in mind: between both films, if BP and Director split, both Linklater and Inarritu win Oscars.
3--Actor. Like many, I thought Michael Keaton was a slam-dunk. Then I saw The Theory of Everything. I didn't think much going in, expecting a by-the-numbers biopic (which, by the way The Imitation Game is; save for Benedict Cumberbatch, Knightly, and the screenplay, the film's last half hour is its saving grace. Morten Tyldum has no business being up for Director and will be working an In and Out Burger in no time. Harvey's pushed a bit hard w/ this one, but it will win Adapted Screenplay). I didn't expect to be moved. There is an intangible quality that Eddie Redmayne brings to the role, a twinkle in his eye showing a mind always at work when his body isn't. I think Bradley Cooper is a dead-ringer for Chris Kyle and is soulful in his performance, staying above the political fray to be true to Kyle's spirit. And goddamn I want to see Keaton win, because his performance is every bit as nuanced as Redmayne's, albeit from an entirely different angle. But I have to tip the scales to Redmayne. It's simply a beautifully nuanced performance that isn't predictable in the least. But here's the question I've been left with: How can Birdman win BP and Director and Keaton not win Actor when it's an actor's film? I won't be upset w/ either winning.
4--I hope my other gut feeling does not occur, that The Grand Budapest Hotel will win several Oscars (four by my count), but Anderson loses Original Screenplay I hope I'm wrong. Maybe this is where Linklater gets his Oscar but doubtful. I want Anderson to finally win an Oscar.
5--I kept thinking there would be a BP/Director split but I'm thinking not at this point. If it splits anyway, I think Boyhood for BP and Inarritu for Director, not vice versa.
6--I hope there is one major surprise, but I'm not going to try to guess this one. I will say this: If Boyhood wins Editing, it probably wins BP. If Whiplash wins it (which I'm predicting), lookout!
I'm as guilty as all the other blowhards overdoing it at this point. I have nothing left except my Predix. The shit show (thanks Craig Kennedy for this term, I also knicknamed one of my former students this, and she loves the moniker!) is 24 hours away, so with no further ado, here's mine (my picks and the upsets):
Best Picture: Birdman
upset: Boyhood
Best Director: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu
upset: Richard Linklater
Best Actor: Eddie Redmayne
upset: Michael Keaton
Best Actress: Julianne Moore
upset: Rosamund Pike
Best Supporting Actor: J K Simmons
upset: Edward Norton
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette
upset: Emma Stone
Best Original Screenplay: The Grand Budapest Hotel
upset: Birdman
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Imitation Game
upset: American Sniper
Best Animated Feature: Big Hero 6
upset: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Best Foreign-Language Film: Ida
upset: Leviathan
Best Score: The Theory of Everything
upset: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Song: "Glory"
upset: "I'm Not Gonna Miss You"
Best Cinematography: Birdman
upset: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Editing: Whiplash
upset: American Sniper
Best Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
upset: Into the Woods
Best Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
upset: Into the Woods
Best Sound Editing: American Sniper
upset: Birdman
Best Sound Mixing: Whiplash
upset: American Sniper
Best Visual Effects: Interstellar
upset: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Best Makeup: The Grand Budapest Hotel
upset: Foxcatcher
Best Documentary Feature: Citizenfour
upset: Virunga
Best Documentary Short Subject: Crisis Hotline
upset: Joanna
Best Live-Action Short: The Phone Call
upset: Boogaloo and Graham
Best Animated Short: Feast
upset: The Dam Keeper
The Wins
(Note: Win totals may not line up w/ my Predix)
The Grand Budapest Hotel 4
Birdman 3
Whiplash 3The Theory of Everything 2
Boyhood 1
The Imitation Game 1
Running Time: 3 hours, 32 minutes
As usual, I'll be performing my annual rite of passage of posting and Tweeting on Facebook and Twitter. And once again, I didn't do an office pool because I need to save my money to restock more beer after tomorrow night.
Happy Oscar Sunday, y'all. And, of course, shalom...
Wednesday, February 11, 2015
Oscar Madness 2014 (Where's Your Film?), or Seven Ways to Oscar Sunday
We are 11 days out from The Main Event (anyone remember that film?), and the saga that is As the Oscar Turns has seen some seismic shifts as of late. These are just some random thoughts I have at this state in the Oscar race, and they are just that--thoughts. My predix will come in nine days, but these are just some matters to consider:
1--The love for Boyhood has faded faster than a Valentine's date at Waffle House, while Birdman has racked up the major guild awards in dramatic fashion. But in winning the trifecta of SAG, the PGA, and DGA, does this mean the film is a slam-dunk to win Picture and Director? I don't think so, and I've read what's out there in the Twitterverse, blogs, and beyond to try to put my finger on where this surge began, because most films about actors don't win Oscars, especially Picture or Director. Perhaps it's because voters actually watched the screeners, precisely the reason Selma didn't get more nominations (though I think the film until its final half hour is uneven). Boyhood came out on video last month, but not sure that's helped here.
Some I've talked to see Boyhood as a movie of trickery, what w/ the filming over a dozen years. It's a solid film, and I still don't understand why no love for Eller Coltrane, the heart of the film. It's a tad long in spots, but don't parts of your life feel that way?
One could argue that Birdman is just as much a gimmick, albeit a more impressive one, what with the film being one long tracking shot. It works beautifully w/out taking away from the fine ensemble and smart screenplay. Emmanual Lubezki is a lock to win, despite having just won last year for Gravity. But will voters tick off their ballots for Birdman because they are impressed by Alajandro Inarritu's "magically realisitic" approach without going too far off the rails? He creates a narrative that falls into the lap of what America (fuck yeah!) represents, hitting rock bottom and trying to find redemption in your final act (of sorts). Inarritu has yet to make a bad film in my eyes (and I think I'm the only person who is still a champion for Babel), but Richard Linklater's career, though I largely like most his films and am a fan, has been quite uneven. And to direct the same actors for 12 years is not something just any director can pull off seamlessly, but would this speak more for the editor than the director? The film is a lot like most Linklater films, quiet contemplations as if walking down a backroad thinking out loud about life. And remember, kids, Linklater did some tracking shots of his own in Slacker, still possibly my favorite still.
2--So where does this leave us? Exactly where I began because I still have no fucking clue what will win Best Picture. Some are decrying those two words we hear uttered annually, in hopes of seeing an upset: vote-splitting. Could it happen? Sure. Will it happen? Nope, although this year would be ripe for such a surprise (remember when Brokeback Mountain was a lead-pipe cinch and Crash won?)Some think votes may kick to Selma or American Sniper, but many still have not seen Selma and American Sniper because the box-office beast that could not be (and still barely has been) contained. But I think it may win either or both Sound awards and perhaps Cooper (will get to this in a moment). And where I thought this may be a year of spreading the love among multiple films, the race is shaping up between just a couple that may win multiple awards, primarily Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel.
Speaking of which, Budapest is a film that went from hoping to be nominated for Production Design to being 99 percent certain it will win this category and Makeup, but also maybe Costume Design (would love to see Inherent Vice win this) and maybe Score, and possibly, hopefully Wes Anderson for Original Screenplay. The film could win the most trophies of the night and Wes Baby could still walk away without a damned Oscar!
3--Watch Editing and what wins. Usually Editing and Picture line up but not always (Black Hawk Down over Chicago, both still two of the best edited films I've seen). But if Whiplash should win here, watch out! If Boyhood wins, still not sure it will win Picture. Sorry to sound like every other cynic, but the last time I saw this much deflation from front runner to possible also-ran was in 2001, when Sissy Spacek was seemingly a lock to win Actress and Halle Berry (thrillingly!) won.
4--Could Patricia Arquette be Boyhood's only Oscar? This idea popped into my head before the SAGs. Being up for only six awards, it's possible. And it's J K Simmons's Oscar to lose at this point, and he clearly deserves it because, though I like the film a lot, he and Miles Teller take a very weak screenplay and make is sing, creating the "jazz" in the film (pun intended).
5--Julianne Moore is finally going to win the goddamned Oscar. Period. Solid category, with Reese Witherspoon being the most surprising performance, far better in Wild than in Walk the Line (which is Phoenix's film). And Rosamund Pike's is possibly the performance of the year (along w/ Jessica Chastian in A Most Violent Year, a film, along w/ Gone Girl, that was hosed) for me, but Moore (and, yes, Kristin Stewart, who also should have been nominated) is stunning in a mediocre film; the last scene is devastating. Who else is up?
6--But could there be an upset in Supporting Actress? It's the category where it usually happens. Some have expressed love for Laura Dern, and she (as well as Reese) is excellent in Wild, but I'm not buying the argument that the Academy wants award her for her pounding the Awards circuit pavement for her dad Bruce last year. He didn't win, did he, good though he was, and I still would change my vote daily from last years Actors, a solid crop where usually Actress is the category bursting at the seams.
7--Which leads to the most problematic category, Actor. It seems down to Michael Keaton and Eddie Redmayne, and this is a case for me in which either actor could win, and I would be thrilled. Both gave very complex, physical, and heartfelt performance, albeit coming from two entirely different planes. Both actors were seamless and moving in roles inherent with layers of irony. Keaton manages the multiple roles within his film in amazing fashion, and Redmayne captures the essence of Stephen Hawking with a twinkle of wonder in his eye as he negotiates his way through Hawking's illness. And The Theory of Everything was a revelation for me; I went into it thinking it would be a diorama with accents but came out incredibly moved by one of the better biopics I've seen in years. I've personally never been more torn with whom I would vote for. And as much as I have the hots for Bradley Baby, he could well be the spoiler here; a tremendous physical actor anyway, Cooper is a dead-ringer for Chris Kyle, and I never once thought I was watching Cooper. I keep thinking if voters want to reward Sniper it would be here, plus actors pushed hard for Cooper to be nominated, which would explain why, along with the late release of the film/screeners, he wasn't up for a SAG or a Golden Globe. And the film has lost a bit of steam in chattering circles, plus the trial of Chris Kyle's killer just began, so not sure of what impact, if any, this may have since this film, one that turned into a political Rorchach Test that seems to have been more massively polarizing than most expected,
Many are predicting Redmayne to win, and I'm cool with that. But my question is if, in fact, Birdman tends to sweep many categories, how can a film centered on Michael Keaton's performance win multiple Oscars, including possibly both Picture and Director, and not pick up a win for Actor along the way? That would be as ironic as Inarritu's film...
So to quote Maxine Nightingale (where is she now?), we're right back where we started from. We have little over a week yet. All but the WGA have weighed in guildwise, and now we're in that strange nadir where everyone overthinks everything because there's nothing else to be done until the ceremony. Besides, William Goldman said, "Nobody knows anything," and nor does The Maven...
1--The love for Boyhood has faded faster than a Valentine's date at Waffle House, while Birdman has racked up the major guild awards in dramatic fashion. But in winning the trifecta of SAG, the PGA, and DGA, does this mean the film is a slam-dunk to win Picture and Director? I don't think so, and I've read what's out there in the Twitterverse, blogs, and beyond to try to put my finger on where this surge began, because most films about actors don't win Oscars, especially Picture or Director. Perhaps it's because voters actually watched the screeners, precisely the reason Selma didn't get more nominations (though I think the film until its final half hour is uneven). Boyhood came out on video last month, but not sure that's helped here.
Some I've talked to see Boyhood as a movie of trickery, what w/ the filming over a dozen years. It's a solid film, and I still don't understand why no love for Eller Coltrane, the heart of the film. It's a tad long in spots, but don't parts of your life feel that way?
One could argue that Birdman is just as much a gimmick, albeit a more impressive one, what with the film being one long tracking shot. It works beautifully w/out taking away from the fine ensemble and smart screenplay. Emmanual Lubezki is a lock to win, despite having just won last year for Gravity. But will voters tick off their ballots for Birdman because they are impressed by Alajandro Inarritu's "magically realisitic" approach without going too far off the rails? He creates a narrative that falls into the lap of what America (fuck yeah!) represents, hitting rock bottom and trying to find redemption in your final act (of sorts). Inarritu has yet to make a bad film in my eyes (and I think I'm the only person who is still a champion for Babel), but Richard Linklater's career, though I largely like most his films and am a fan, has been quite uneven. And to direct the same actors for 12 years is not something just any director can pull off seamlessly, but would this speak more for the editor than the director? The film is a lot like most Linklater films, quiet contemplations as if walking down a backroad thinking out loud about life. And remember, kids, Linklater did some tracking shots of his own in Slacker, still possibly my favorite still.
2--So where does this leave us? Exactly where I began because I still have no fucking clue what will win Best Picture. Some are decrying those two words we hear uttered annually, in hopes of seeing an upset: vote-splitting. Could it happen? Sure. Will it happen? Nope, although this year would be ripe for such a surprise (remember when Brokeback Mountain was a lead-pipe cinch and Crash won?)Some think votes may kick to Selma or American Sniper, but many still have not seen Selma and American Sniper because the box-office beast that could not be (and still barely has been) contained. But I think it may win either or both Sound awards and perhaps Cooper (will get to this in a moment). And where I thought this may be a year of spreading the love among multiple films, the race is shaping up between just a couple that may win multiple awards, primarily Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel.
Speaking of which, Budapest is a film that went from hoping to be nominated for Production Design to being 99 percent certain it will win this category and Makeup, but also maybe Costume Design (would love to see Inherent Vice win this) and maybe Score, and possibly, hopefully Wes Anderson for Original Screenplay. The film could win the most trophies of the night and Wes Baby could still walk away without a damned Oscar!
3--Watch Editing and what wins. Usually Editing and Picture line up but not always (Black Hawk Down over Chicago, both still two of the best edited films I've seen). But if Whiplash should win here, watch out! If Boyhood wins, still not sure it will win Picture. Sorry to sound like every other cynic, but the last time I saw this much deflation from front runner to possible also-ran was in 2001, when Sissy Spacek was seemingly a lock to win Actress and Halle Berry (thrillingly!) won.
4--Could Patricia Arquette be Boyhood's only Oscar? This idea popped into my head before the SAGs. Being up for only six awards, it's possible. And it's J K Simmons's Oscar to lose at this point, and he clearly deserves it because, though I like the film a lot, he and Miles Teller take a very weak screenplay and make is sing, creating the "jazz" in the film (pun intended).
5--Julianne Moore is finally going to win the goddamned Oscar. Period. Solid category, with Reese Witherspoon being the most surprising performance, far better in Wild than in Walk the Line (which is Phoenix's film). And Rosamund Pike's is possibly the performance of the year (along w/ Jessica Chastian in A Most Violent Year, a film, along w/ Gone Girl, that was hosed) for me, but Moore (and, yes, Kristin Stewart, who also should have been nominated) is stunning in a mediocre film; the last scene is devastating. Who else is up?
6--But could there be an upset in Supporting Actress? It's the category where it usually happens. Some have expressed love for Laura Dern, and she (as well as Reese) is excellent in Wild, but I'm not buying the argument that the Academy wants award her for her pounding the Awards circuit pavement for her dad Bruce last year. He didn't win, did he, good though he was, and I still would change my vote daily from last years Actors, a solid crop where usually Actress is the category bursting at the seams.
7--Which leads to the most problematic category, Actor. It seems down to Michael Keaton and Eddie Redmayne, and this is a case for me in which either actor could win, and I would be thrilled. Both gave very complex, physical, and heartfelt performance, albeit coming from two entirely different planes. Both actors were seamless and moving in roles inherent with layers of irony. Keaton manages the multiple roles within his film in amazing fashion, and Redmayne captures the essence of Stephen Hawking with a twinkle of wonder in his eye as he negotiates his way through Hawking's illness. And The Theory of Everything was a revelation for me; I went into it thinking it would be a diorama with accents but came out incredibly moved by one of the better biopics I've seen in years. I've personally never been more torn with whom I would vote for. And as much as I have the hots for Bradley Baby, he could well be the spoiler here; a tremendous physical actor anyway, Cooper is a dead-ringer for Chris Kyle, and I never once thought I was watching Cooper. I keep thinking if voters want to reward Sniper it would be here, plus actors pushed hard for Cooper to be nominated, which would explain why, along with the late release of the film/screeners, he wasn't up for a SAG or a Golden Globe. And the film has lost a bit of steam in chattering circles, plus the trial of Chris Kyle's killer just began, so not sure of what impact, if any, this may have since this film, one that turned into a political Rorchach Test that seems to have been more massively polarizing than most expected,
Many are predicting Redmayne to win, and I'm cool with that. But my question is if, in fact, Birdman tends to sweep many categories, how can a film centered on Michael Keaton's performance win multiple Oscars, including possibly both Picture and Director, and not pick up a win for Actor along the way? That would be as ironic as Inarritu's film...
So to quote Maxine Nightingale (where is she now?), we're right back where we started from. We have little over a week yet. All but the WGA have weighed in guildwise, and now we're in that strange nadir where everyone overthinks everything because there's nothing else to be done until the ceremony. Besides, William Goldman said, "Nobody knows anything," and nor does The Maven...
Wednesday, January 14, 2015
The Mad Dash aka The MS Maven Oscar Predix Extravaganza 2014
The Maven's second High Holy Day of the year is upon us come tomorrow morning, with the first being The Ohio State Buckeyes--surprisingly, thrillingly--winning the National Championship. Thus, I'm coming off the afterglow into the buzzsaw of Oscar nominations. Is it just me or does it seem they hit all of a sudden this year? Meaning, I've not heard quite the buzz and analysis in every corner of our culture as we did last year, when it seemed nominations were even being debated on C-SPAN.
Until now.
Just in the past week the pontificating has reached a fever pitch (and I'm not talking about the bad Ryan O'Neal film from 1985), and the nominations debate in some categories resemble a Chinese fire drill. This is due partially (as usual) to politics but more so timing of voting/noms from the various guilds. Until recent years, the awards season was paced out between the guilds and respective awards being handed out, where Academy members could see patterns to ride the bandwagon or for the studio that employed them. But now, the Golden Globes are a non-factor (they usually are anyway, what w/ possibly the lowest membership of voters), and the WGA, PGA, Bafta, and just yesterday the DGA revealing their noms, the latter after Oscar ballots were due last Friday.
So, this has caused a mad scramble of figuring out the nominees for a few major categories that, frankly to me a few weeks ago, seemed pretty much set and w/ two locks (Actress and Supporting Actress) for wins before the noms are announced. But the last-minute revelations, especially from the DGA, has blown things open all of a sudden. And The Maven thrives on surprises.
Here are the basics before my predix:
1-Julianne Moore is a lock for Actress. I've seen Still Alice, and the final shot is subtle and heartbreaking. Plus, it's her time. (And I'm still puzzled as to why she wasn't up for Supporting Actress for Magnolia, but that's an argument for a different time).
2--Patricia Arquette is a lock for Supporting Actress, I think. I say this because this category is one of the scrambled culprits, from having five that I thought were consistent for the past months (Arquette, Stone, Knightly, Streep, Dern) to now having a lot of possibilities. Did folks see A Most Violent Year to put Chastain in (seeing this later tonight, after finalizing my predix)? Rene Russo if there is a surge for Nightcrawler? And what to do w/ Tilda Swinton and Snowpiercer?. My wild card for this category is Carrie Coon in Gone Girl, but I don't have the guts to pick her in the fifth slot. I do think Streep may be out, though, per not heard much love for Into the Woods, save for Production and Costume Design.
3--So, what do the voting members do w/ Nightcrawler, Gone Girl, and Whiplash? Let's break this down:
Nightcrawler: Several folks have it up for several Oscars, which may happen, but I'm not feeling it at the moment. Could have Original Screenplay for Gilroy but even there would it unseat Selma, a film that had momentum but lost steam due to historical controversies and the lack of/late DVD screeners. Gyllenhall for Actor may be the fifth nominee but I have it going to Cooper in American Sniper, also a film late in the game but many like it and Eastwood.
Gone Girl: The Academy likes Fincher, though still Oscarless, but this is an odd movie for folks to digest. Love Moore, counting the days until she wins Actress, but my performance of the year is Rosamund Pike, but she's lucky to get the nomination w/ the way the film seems to be trending downward (will she be the big omission?).
Whiplash: Many folks know I'm a jazz nut w/ a huge collection, but I checked my jazz chops at the door when seeing this film. I like it, Simmons is great (and lock #3), but it's a bit overrated. The screenplay, decent but a bit thin for me, is a question mark because the WGA nominated it for Original Screenplay, but the Academy shifted it to Adapted Screenplay, so I'm not sure if this will hurt it for a screenplay nom or not. Thus, if there's a surge, Chazelle for Director? I still think it's a stretch.
4--Actor's presumably fifth spot is wide open, what w/ Redmayne, Keaton, Cumberbatch, and Oylelowo (though he could very well be Selma's lone nominee or left out altogether) likely. Many have Gyllenhall in that last spot, and I would be cool w/ that, but I hope/think it will be Bradley Cooper. American Sniper is solid, one of Eastwood's best films (which surprised me, actually, and I'm a big Clint The Filmmaker fan). I would be thrilled, though, if Ralph Fiennes, or even Eller Coltrane get that spot (why has the latter never been mentioned in all the Boyhood surge? I've found this really curious, but I'm in the minority apparently).
5--The DGA noms yesterday has caused everyone to renegotiate the five nominees for Director. Linklater, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, and Anderson (finally, happily!) are locks, w/ the latter two spots too wide open. Do Academy members go chalk and put in Morten Tyldum for the Imitation Game? Could the voters actually go for Duverney after all, for someone who started out hot and really pushing the film to now wondering what noms Selma will get? Will they throw Jolie a bone? I have Fincher (am I reaching here?) and Eastwood (the Academy really, really likes him) in the last two slots.
6--Reese Witherspoon has been on every show it seems, save for the Price is Right, promoting Wild. She hasn't a chance in hell to win, she was terrific in a very small role in Inherent Vice, and remember, if Gone Girl is up for Picture, she's one of the producers.
7--The Maven will be thrilled for anything for Boyhood, Grand Budapest, Birdman, American Sniper, and Inherent Vice (maybe Adapted Screenplay, but it opened late and a lot of folks I'm sure left the theater or shut off the DVD scratching their collective heads). And I'll squeal w/ glee if Carrie Coon's name is called.
8--Grand Budapest gained some momentum, but it's been on video for a bit and is now playing on HBO, which helps. I originally thought it would only be up for Original Screenplay, Production Design, and Makeup, but I think it'll get a few more than that now. I'll scream bloody murder if Anderson does not make the Director cut and scream w/ delight if he does.
9--Aniston safe in slot #5 for Actress? Gut says not, but I'm sticking w/ her.
10--Adapted Screenplay is a mess and after changing it several times (the most of any category for me, oddly enough per it's usually an acting category). But it is what it is at this point.
11--Naomi Watts is up for the SAG for St Vincent, but could she be carried along and be up in a Birdman sweep? Think she may split her own vote here (would like to see her up for Birdman, though). And could Streep be left out?
Picks below the line in each category are alternates. I stopped doing the specialty and music categories per the rules seem to change on a dime.
Enough w/ the preamble, on with The Maven's picks:
Best Picture
Boyhood
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Selma
The Imitation Game
Gone Girl
The Theory of Everything
American Sniper
---
Whiplash
Foxcatcher
Nightcrawler
Best Director
Richard Linklater
Wes Anderson
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu
David Fincher
Clint Eastwood
---
Ava DuVernay
Angelina Jolie
Morten Tyldum
Best Actor
Michael Keaton
Eddie Redmayne
Benedict Cumberbatch
David Oyelowo
Bradley Cooper
---
Steve Carrell
Jake Gyllenhall
Ralph Fiennes
Best Actress
Julianne Moore
Reese Witherspoon
Rosamund Pike
Felicity Jones
Jennifer Aniston
---
Amy Adams
Emily Blunt
Marion Cotilliard
Best Supporting Actor
J K Simmons
Ethan Hawke
Edward Norton
Robert Duvall
Mark Ruffalo
---
Tom Wilkinson
Albert Brooks
Josh Brolin
Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette
Emma Stone
Keira Knightly
Laura Dern
Meryl Streep
---
Carrie Coon
Jessica Chastain
Tilda Swinton
Best Original Screenplay
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Birdman
Boyhood
Nightcrawler
Foxcatcher
---
Selma
Mr. Turner
A Most Violent Year
Best Adapted Screenplay
Gone Girl
American Sniper
The Imitation Game
Wild
Inherent Vice
---
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
Unbroken
Best Cinematography
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Unbroken
Mr. Turner
Gone Girl
---
Interstellar
Nightcrawler
Wild
Best Editing
Boyhood
Birdman
American Sniper
The Imitation Game
Whiplash
---
Interstellar
Gone Girl
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Production Design
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Into the Woods
Interstellar
Mr. Turner
Birdman
---
The Imitation Game
Maleficent
Unbroken
Best Costume Design
Into the Woods
Maleficent
Mr. Turner
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Inherent Vice
---
The Imitation Game
Big Eyes
Birdman
Best Sound Editing
Interstellar
Guardians of the Galaxy
Whiplash
Fury
American Sniper
---
Unbroken
The Hobbit
Into the Woods
Best Sound Mixing
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Unbroken
Fury
Guardians of the Galaxy
---
Birdman
American Sniper
Whiplash
Best Visual Effects
Interstellar
Guardians of the Galaxy
Godzilla
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
The Hobbit
---
Maleficent
Best Makeup
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Foxcatcher
Maleficent
---
Guardians of the Galaxy
Note: My guesses for number of noms may not match my categories on purpose
As Walt Whitman says, "All goes onward and upward...and nothing collapses..." But try telling that to most of Hollywood for the next six weeks...
The Maven's work is done here. Hearing all the categories at 8:37 (we won't see the lesser categories that are announced just before) is going to be weird, but I can dig it. '
Happy Oscar, y'all! Let the highjinks and arguments begin!
Until now.
Just in the past week the pontificating has reached a fever pitch (and I'm not talking about the bad Ryan O'Neal film from 1985), and the nominations debate in some categories resemble a Chinese fire drill. This is due partially (as usual) to politics but more so timing of voting/noms from the various guilds. Until recent years, the awards season was paced out between the guilds and respective awards being handed out, where Academy members could see patterns to ride the bandwagon or for the studio that employed them. But now, the Golden Globes are a non-factor (they usually are anyway, what w/ possibly the lowest membership of voters), and the WGA, PGA, Bafta, and just yesterday the DGA revealing their noms, the latter after Oscar ballots were due last Friday.
So, this has caused a mad scramble of figuring out the nominees for a few major categories that, frankly to me a few weeks ago, seemed pretty much set and w/ two locks (Actress and Supporting Actress) for wins before the noms are announced. But the last-minute revelations, especially from the DGA, has blown things open all of a sudden. And The Maven thrives on surprises.
Here are the basics before my predix:
1-Julianne Moore is a lock for Actress. I've seen Still Alice, and the final shot is subtle and heartbreaking. Plus, it's her time. (And I'm still puzzled as to why she wasn't up for Supporting Actress for Magnolia, but that's an argument for a different time).
2--Patricia Arquette is a lock for Supporting Actress, I think. I say this because this category is one of the scrambled culprits, from having five that I thought were consistent for the past months (Arquette, Stone, Knightly, Streep, Dern) to now having a lot of possibilities. Did folks see A Most Violent Year to put Chastain in (seeing this later tonight, after finalizing my predix)? Rene Russo if there is a surge for Nightcrawler? And what to do w/ Tilda Swinton and Snowpiercer?. My wild card for this category is Carrie Coon in Gone Girl, but I don't have the guts to pick her in the fifth slot. I do think Streep may be out, though, per not heard much love for Into the Woods, save for Production and Costume Design.
3--So, what do the voting members do w/ Nightcrawler, Gone Girl, and Whiplash? Let's break this down:
Nightcrawler: Several folks have it up for several Oscars, which may happen, but I'm not feeling it at the moment. Could have Original Screenplay for Gilroy but even there would it unseat Selma, a film that had momentum but lost steam due to historical controversies and the lack of/late DVD screeners. Gyllenhall for Actor may be the fifth nominee but I have it going to Cooper in American Sniper, also a film late in the game but many like it and Eastwood.
Gone Girl: The Academy likes Fincher, though still Oscarless, but this is an odd movie for folks to digest. Love Moore, counting the days until she wins Actress, but my performance of the year is Rosamund Pike, but she's lucky to get the nomination w/ the way the film seems to be trending downward (will she be the big omission?).
Whiplash: Many folks know I'm a jazz nut w/ a huge collection, but I checked my jazz chops at the door when seeing this film. I like it, Simmons is great (and lock #3), but it's a bit overrated. The screenplay, decent but a bit thin for me, is a question mark because the WGA nominated it for Original Screenplay, but the Academy shifted it to Adapted Screenplay, so I'm not sure if this will hurt it for a screenplay nom or not. Thus, if there's a surge, Chazelle for Director? I still think it's a stretch.
4--Actor's presumably fifth spot is wide open, what w/ Redmayne, Keaton, Cumberbatch, and Oylelowo (though he could very well be Selma's lone nominee or left out altogether) likely. Many have Gyllenhall in that last spot, and I would be cool w/ that, but I hope/think it will be Bradley Cooper. American Sniper is solid, one of Eastwood's best films (which surprised me, actually, and I'm a big Clint The Filmmaker fan). I would be thrilled, though, if Ralph Fiennes, or even Eller Coltrane get that spot (why has the latter never been mentioned in all the Boyhood surge? I've found this really curious, but I'm in the minority apparently).
5--The DGA noms yesterday has caused everyone to renegotiate the five nominees for Director. Linklater, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, and Anderson (finally, happily!) are locks, w/ the latter two spots too wide open. Do Academy members go chalk and put in Morten Tyldum for the Imitation Game? Could the voters actually go for Duverney after all, for someone who started out hot and really pushing the film to now wondering what noms Selma will get? Will they throw Jolie a bone? I have Fincher (am I reaching here?) and Eastwood (the Academy really, really likes him) in the last two slots.
6--Reese Witherspoon has been on every show it seems, save for the Price is Right, promoting Wild. She hasn't a chance in hell to win, she was terrific in a very small role in Inherent Vice, and remember, if Gone Girl is up for Picture, she's one of the producers.
7--The Maven will be thrilled for anything for Boyhood, Grand Budapest, Birdman, American Sniper, and Inherent Vice (maybe Adapted Screenplay, but it opened late and a lot of folks I'm sure left the theater or shut off the DVD scratching their collective heads). And I'll squeal w/ glee if Carrie Coon's name is called.
8--Grand Budapest gained some momentum, but it's been on video for a bit and is now playing on HBO, which helps. I originally thought it would only be up for Original Screenplay, Production Design, and Makeup, but I think it'll get a few more than that now. I'll scream bloody murder if Anderson does not make the Director cut and scream w/ delight if he does.
9--Aniston safe in slot #5 for Actress? Gut says not, but I'm sticking w/ her.
10--Adapted Screenplay is a mess and after changing it several times (the most of any category for me, oddly enough per it's usually an acting category). But it is what it is at this point.
11--Naomi Watts is up for the SAG for St Vincent, but could she be carried along and be up in a Birdman sweep? Think she may split her own vote here (would like to see her up for Birdman, though). And could Streep be left out?
Picks below the line in each category are alternates. I stopped doing the specialty and music categories per the rules seem to change on a dime.
Enough w/ the preamble, on with The Maven's picks:
Best Picture
Boyhood
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Selma
The Imitation Game
Gone Girl
The Theory of Everything
American Sniper
---
Whiplash
Foxcatcher
Nightcrawler
Best Director
Richard Linklater
Wes Anderson
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu
David Fincher
Clint Eastwood
---
Ava DuVernay
Angelina Jolie
Morten Tyldum
Best Actor
Michael Keaton
Eddie Redmayne
Benedict Cumberbatch
David Oyelowo
Bradley Cooper
---
Steve Carrell
Jake Gyllenhall
Ralph Fiennes
Best Actress
Julianne Moore
Reese Witherspoon
Rosamund Pike
Felicity Jones
Jennifer Aniston
---
Amy Adams
Emily Blunt
Marion Cotilliard
Best Supporting Actor
J K Simmons
Ethan Hawke
Edward Norton
Robert Duvall
Mark Ruffalo
---
Tom Wilkinson
Albert Brooks
Josh Brolin
Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette
Emma Stone
Keira Knightly
Laura Dern
Meryl Streep
---
Carrie Coon
Jessica Chastain
Tilda Swinton
Best Original Screenplay
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Birdman
Boyhood
Nightcrawler
Foxcatcher
---
Selma
Mr. Turner
A Most Violent Year
Best Adapted Screenplay
Gone Girl
American Sniper
The Imitation Game
Wild
Inherent Vice
---
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
Unbroken
Best Cinematography
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Unbroken
Mr. Turner
Gone Girl
---
Interstellar
Nightcrawler
Wild
Best Editing
Boyhood
Birdman
American Sniper
The Imitation Game
Whiplash
---
Interstellar
Gone Girl
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Production Design
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Into the Woods
Interstellar
Mr. Turner
Birdman
---
The Imitation Game
Maleficent
Unbroken
Best Costume Design
Into the Woods
Maleficent
Mr. Turner
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Inherent Vice
---
The Imitation Game
Big Eyes
Birdman
Best Sound Editing
Interstellar
Guardians of the Galaxy
Whiplash
Fury
American Sniper
---
Unbroken
The Hobbit
Into the Woods
Best Sound Mixing
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Unbroken
Fury
Guardians of the Galaxy
---
Birdman
American Sniper
Whiplash
Best Visual Effects
Interstellar
Guardians of the Galaxy
Godzilla
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
The Hobbit
---
Maleficent
Best Makeup
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Foxcatcher
Maleficent
---
Guardians of the Galaxy
Nominations
Birdman 9
Boyhood 7
The Grand Budapest Hotel 6
The Imitation Game 5
American Sniper 5
Gone Girl 5
Selma 5
Whiplash 4
Foxcatcher 3
Into the Woods 3
Guardians of the Galaxy 3
The Theory of Everything 3
As Walt Whitman says, "All goes onward and upward...and nothing collapses..." But try telling that to most of Hollywood for the next six weeks...
The Maven's work is done here. Hearing all the categories at 8:37 (we won't see the lesser categories that are announced just before) is going to be weird, but I can dig it. '
Happy Oscar, y'all! Let the highjinks and arguments begin!
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