I don't have much to say just yet. The buzz this year has been rather quiet, I must say. Too quiet. Pundits are usually about as bad as ESPN analysts acting as unpaid spokespeople for the SEC. Or maybe it's because it's cold as moose balls outside (the temperature at 9:23pm is 24 degrees, and this is NPR…). Yours truly has been plowing Oscar's killing field of contenders since the weekend, w/ a few more to go. I'm sure, like many of my fellow pundits, have seen more films in consideration than many an Academy member, which makes this sweet science more confounding.
A few observations going into the fog of Oscar:
1--The only certainty this year is that Best Actor and Best Actress have locks in Leonardo DiCaprio and Brie Larson, with the latter, for me, giving the performance of the year. The other nominees in these respective categories are just noise (not undeserved, but still).
2--I think Room and Straight Outta Compton are gaining traction, while Spotlight, though excellent, is losing some. Peaked too early, I think. Don't be surprised if no actors from the film are nominated, for this one feels more collective than any on actor standing out.
3--My wild cards at the moment are Tom Hardy for Supporting Actor (why isn't he getting any dap? Not the warmest of chaps, but he stands his ground w/ Leo, for Christ's sake!), Sicario making a mini-me late surge, and Alicia Verkander not being up for either Actress or Supporting Actress.
4--Not sure Quentin Tarantino will feel any Oscar love this time around. He's starting to become repetitive, in his films and interviews. He needs to stop talking and get out of his own way. Jennifer Jason Leigh should finally get a long-overdue nomination and rep the film, happily.
5--And speaking of directors, why does the Academy love Tom Hooper? He's pedestrian at best, and I don't see much coming from The Danish Girl, save for Eddie Redmayne; Oscar usually has a few repeat offenders from the previous year, and he'll be one of them.
6--And how are some of these actors being run categorically now? Some suggest that Rooney Mara will be up for Actress but conventional wisdom is she's a lock for a Supporting nom. And some suggest that Steve Carell is in the same scenario, though I would put him in supporting. The Big Short also feels collective, save for him and Christian Bale, who should make the cut. But Carell is better in Short than he was in Foxcatcher.
7--Supporting Actor is a Chinese fire drill at this point, a category with way too many possibilities. It may be more about who is left out than who is up. I don't know if Michael Keaton and Mark Ruffalo will split the Spotlight vote or not. (Rachel McAdams may be the sole acting nominee; she deserves it, and I hope the Academy doesn't punish her for True Detective, for sometimes a car wreck is just a car wreck). If they do, we may get a nom out of left field (see #8 below). But the kid from Room, Jacob Tremblay, is in. Not much for child performances, but this is one of the best I've seen since Anna Paquin in The Piano, and we know how that turned out...
7--Don't be surprised if you hear the names of Charlize Theron, Paul Dano, and/or Benecio Del Toro called. Just a hunch.
8--And my usually-annual mantra: Cinematographer Roger Deakins will be up for the umpteenth time. Is Deakins ever going to win a goddamned Oscar? (I see you, Craig Kennedy!)
But enough with the preamble. On with The Maven's predix, with each category with three alternates, as usual:
Best Picture
The Revenant
Spotlight
Room
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Big Short
Straight Outta Compton
Carol
---
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Best Director
Ridley Scott
Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu
George Miller
Adam McKay
Tom McCarthy
---
Todd Haynes
Quentin Tarantino
Steven Spielberg
Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio
Michael Fassbender
Matt Damon
Eddie Redmayne
Bryan Cranston
---
Will Smith
Steve Carell
Johnny Depp
Best Actress
Brie Larson
Cate Blanchett
Saoirise Ronan
Jennifer Lawrence
Charlotte Rampling
---
Alicia Verkander
Charlize Theron
Lily Tomlin
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale
Mark Rylance
Jacob Tremblay
Idris Elba
Sylvester Stallone
---
Tom Hardy
Michael Keaton
Mark Ruffalo
Best Supporting Actress
Rooney Mara
Kate Winslet
Jennifer Jason Leigh
Jane Fonda
Rachel McAdams
---
Alicia Verkander
Helen Mirren
Kristen Stewart
Best Original Screenplay
Spotlight
Bridge of Spies
Sicario
Straight Outta Compton
Trainwreck
---
Joy
Inside Out
The Hateful Eight
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short
Steve Jobs
Room
Carol
The Martian
---
Brooklyn
The Revenant
Trumbo
Best Cinematography
The Revenant
Sicario
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
Bridge of Spies
---
The Martian
The Hateful Eight
Brooklyn
Best Editing
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
The Martian
Sicario
---
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Spotlight
Steve Jobs
Best Production Design
Mad Max: Fury Road
Carol
The Martian
Cinderella
Bridge of Spies
---
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Danish Girl
Spotlight
Best Costume Design
Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Brooklyn
Crimson Peak
---
Mad Max: Fury Road
Bridge of Spies
Mr. Holmes
Best Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Revenant
The Martian
Sicario
---
Jurassic World
The Hateful Eight
Spectre
Best Sound Mixing
The Revenant
The Martian
Straight Outta Compton
Mad Max: Fury Road
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
---
Bridge of Spies
The Hateful Eight
Jurassic World
Best Visual Effects
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Martian
The Walk
Mad Max: Fury Road
Jurassic World
---
Avengers Age of Ultron
Best Makeup
The Revenant
Mad Max: Fury Road
Black Mass
---
Mr. Holmes
Nominations
The Revenant 8
Spotlight 6
The Martian 7
Room 5
Mad Max: Fury Road 8
The Big Short 5
Carol 5
Bridge of Spies 6
Straight Outta Compton 3
Brooklyn 3
Star Wars: Force Awakens 5
Note: Nom totals are not an exact count of my category predix
Thems my fearless predix and I'm sticking to them. And 8:37 comes too damned early in the morn, so The Maven's work is done here.
Happy Oscar, y'all! And, of course, shalom!
Wow. You even predicting the number of BP nominees. I just went ahead and did 10 in order of likelihood. I guess that's cheating.
ReplyDeleteLet me cut and paste my picks here and then I'll look at yours more carefully and comment:
PICTURE
*The Big Short
*Spotlight
*The Revenant
*Mad Max: Fury Road
*The Martian
*Bridge of Spies
*Carol
*Brooklyn
*Sicario
*Star Wars: The Force Awakens
(For what it's worth, I think there will be 8 noms. If so, Sicario and Star Wars miss out. Honestly Star Wars is kind of a guts/glory pick. I doubt it has a chance, but since I don't think there will be 10 noms anyway, no harm, no foul)
DIRECTOR
*The Big Short, Adam McKay
*Spotlight, Tom McCarthy
*The Revenant, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu
*Ridley Scott, The Martian
*Carol, Todd Haynes
(I'm going to get screwed on the Todd Haynes choice, but whatever. It's the best movie of the year and I'm going down with that ship)
ACTOR
*Brian Cranston, Trumbo
*Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
*Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
*Matt Damon, The Martian
*Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
(If I had any balls: I'd switch out Redmayne for Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies)
ACTRESS
*Cate Blanchett, Carol
*Brie Larson, The Room
*Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
*Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
*Charlize Theron, Mad Max
(Charlize instead of Jenny Law? Probably not, but the Russell/Lawrence tyranny has to end eventually and Charlize was the best part of Mad Max)
SUPPORTING ACTOR
*Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
*Christian Bale, The Big Short
*Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
*Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
*Sylvester Stallone, Creed
(If I had any balls: Ruffalo or Bale or Elba out, Dano in. This was the hardest category among the big categories so maybe it's a good one to take a chance and blow it on)
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
*Rooney Mara, Carol
*Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
*Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
*Helen Mirren, Trumbo
*Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
(Just for the record, I have no idea how Mara who is basically in every scene could be Supporting, but that seems to be how it is. I'm also going to get screwed on Vikander for Ex Machina instead of The Danish Girl. The former is the better performance though and I always get hung up on that)
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
*Carol
*Steve Jobs
*The Big Short
*Brooklyn
*The Martian
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
*Spotlight
*Bridge of Spies
*The Hateful Eight
*Straight Outta Compton
*Inside Out
CINEMATOGRAPHY
*Carol
*Sicario
*The Revenant
*Bridge of Spies
*Mad Max
EDITING
*The Big Short
*The Revenant
*Sicario
*Mad Max
*The Martian
SCORE
*The Hateful Eight
*Carol
*Star Wars
*Bridge of Spies
*Inside Out
SONG
*Writing's on the Wall, Spectre
*See You Again, Furious 7
*Earned it, Fifty Shades of Grey
*Simple Song 3, Youth
*Til it Happens to You, The Hunting Ground
COSTUME DESIGN
*Mad Max
*Carol
*Brooklyn
*The Danish Girl
*Cinderella
PRODUCTION DESIGN
*Mad Max
*Bridge of Spies
*Carol
*Brooklyn
*The Danish Girl
MAKEUP/HAIR
*Mad Max
*Cinderella
*The Danish Girl
SOUND EDITING
*The Revenant
*Mad Max: Fury Road
*Star Wars
*The Martian
*Sicario
SOUND MIXING
*The Revenant
*Mad Max: Fury Road
*Star Wars
*The Martian
*Straight Outta Compton
VISUAL EFFECTS
*Mad Max
*The Martian
*Star Wars
*Furious 7
*San Andreas
ANIMATED FEATURE
*Inside Out
*Anomalisa
*The Peanuts Movie
*The Good Dinosaur
*Shaun of the Sheep Movie
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
*Amy
*What Happened Miss Simone?
*Going Clear
*Look of Silence
*Cartel Land
(Changed Best of Enemies to Look of Silence at the last minute)
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE
*Theeb
*A Mustang
*A War
*Viva
*Son of Saul
ANIMATED SHORT
*Sanjay's Super Team
*World of Tomorrow
*If I was God
*Bear Story
*An Object at Rest
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
*Body Team 12
*A Girl in the River
*Chau Beyond the Lines
*My Enemy My Brother
*The Testimony
LIVE ACTION SHORT
*Shok
*Stutterer
*Everything Will Be Okay
*Day One
*Ave Maria
Realistically, the only 5 that seem like locks for me are Big Short, Spotlight, Mad Max, Martian and The Revenant and we agree on those nominees. THe others get fuzzy quickly and we're kind all over the map there. You could well be right. I'll be really curious to see how many overall noms there are. I worry it's going to be 6 or 7 and my favorites, Bridge of Spies, Carol and Brooklyn are going to get left out.
ReplyDeleteI went with Todd Haynes too knowing it's probably a mistake. I just want it so badly and I really do think the DGA won't match perfectly and that the victim will be either Scott or Miller. I won't be shocked when you go 5 for 5 in that category though.
I think we match actor/actress except I'm taking a no guts no glory pick that THeron gets in and Jenny Law stays home for a change.
If Deakins first Oscar is for Sicario, I'm going to be kind of pissed. But then I'll just be thrilled that Roger finally got one. And honestly he makes Sicario look like a much better picture than it really is.
Finally, I'll keep my trap shut about Tremblay on your turf.
ReplyDelete