One Thing After Another: The Maven's Fearless (and Probably Foolish) Oscar Nominations Predix!

 It's that time once again, when we're in the nadir of Winter, where I don't give a shit about anything, and my classes are settling in. 

I don't have much of a preamble this time because I'm recovering from a broken arm (I wasn't even drunk!), as well as having graded seven classes of work for a recently-deceased colleague that I am still not exactly over. 

I don't have much to say as a preamble this time, except to say I think (finally!) that P.T. Anderson will have a slew of nominations for One Battle After Another. I'll leave it at that for now, so as not to jinx him. 

OBAA and Sinners will do well. We'll see how it shakes out six week from now. So without further ado, here's where I think things will land in the morning:

BEST PICTURE

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Marty Supreme

Hamnet

Sentimental Value

Frankenstein

Train Dreams

Bugonia

Wicked: For Good

The Secret Agent

---

It Was Just an Accident

Wicked: For Good

BEST DIRECTOR

PT Anderson

Ryan Coogler

Chloe Zhao

Guillermo Del Toro

Josh Safdie

---

Joachim Trier

Jafar Panahi

BEST ACTOR

Leonardo DiCaprio

Timothee Chalamet

Michael B. Jordan

Ethan Hawke

Joel Edgerton

---

Wagner Moura

Jesse Plemons

Hugh Jackman

BEST ACTRESS

Jessie Buckley

Chase Infinit

Rose Byrne

Emma Stone

Renate Reinsve

---

Kate Hudson

Jennifer Lawrence

Amanda Seyfried

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Sean Penn

Benicio Del Toro 

Jacob Elordi

Paul Mescal

Stellan Skarsgard

---

Delroy Lindo

Adam Sandler

Jack O'Connell

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Teyana Taylor

Amy Madigan

Ariana Grande

Wunmi Mosaku

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas

---

Elle Fanning

Odessa A'zion

Regina Hall

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

One Battle After Another

Hamnet

Train Dreams

Bugonia

Frankenstein

---

Wicked: For Good

No Other Choice

The Life of Chuck

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Sinners

Marty Supreme

Sentimental Value

It Was Just an Accident

The Secret Agent

---

Sorry, Baby

Weapons

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Sinner

One Battle After Another

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Sirat

---

Marty Supreme

Bugonia

Train Dreams

BEST SONG

"Golden"--KPop Demon Hunters

"I Lied To You"--Sinners

"Dear Me"--Diane Warren: Relentless

"No Place Like Home"--Wicked: For Good

"Train Dreams"--Train Dreams

---

"The Girl in The Bubble"--Wicked: For Good

"Dream as One"--Avatar: Fire and Ash

"Billy Idol Should Be Dead"--Dying To Live

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM

Sentimental Value

It Was Just an Accident

The Secret Agent

No Other Choice

Sirat

---

The Voice of the Rind Rajab

The President's Cake

Left-Handed Girl

BEST DOCUMENTARY

The Perfect Neighbor

My Undesirable Friends

The Alabama Solution

Seeds

Yanuni

---

2000 Meters to Andriivka

Cover-Up

Apocalypse in the Tropics

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Sinners

Hamnet

One Battle After Another

Train Dreams

Frankenstein

---

Marty Supreme

F1

Song Sung Blue

BEST EDITING

One Battle After Another

Sinners

F1

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

---

Train Dreams

Sentimental Value

A House of Dynamite 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Frankenstein

Sinners

Wicked: For Good

Hamnet

One Battle After Another

---

Marty Supreme

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Superman

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Frankenstein

Wicked: For Good

Hamnet

Sinners

Marty Supreme

---

The Testament of Ana Lee

One Battle After Another

Nuremberg 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Superman

F1

Frankenstein 

Sinners

---

Wicked: For Good

The Lost Bus

Tron: Ares

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

Frankenstien

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

---

The Ugly Stepsister

Kokomo

The Ugly Stepsister

Nominations

One Battle After Another    13

Sinners    12

Hamnet     9

Marty Supreme    9

Frankenstein 8

This is a pretty predictable year. So, what is the surprise nominee? I say George Clooney in Jay Kelly, but even that's a stretch. 

That's it for now. I'll watch the nominations live with my class in the morning and hope I don't scream or throw something. 

There will be more to come. In the interim, Seasons Screenings!

Firebombed! The Maven's Fearless (This Time Maybe-Foolish) Oscar Winners Predix Extravaganza!

The Maven's been all to hell this Oscar season. The North Carolina floods made for the semester from hell last Fall (and it continues in pockets), I had house issues, a weird rash (cleared up with a single pill, the reverse Substance), flaky and missing emails (thanks, Microsoft), and DJT grifting his way back to the Oval Office.This is why I didn't do the usual Nominations blog. 

I have to admit this slate of films collectively are mediocre at best, and it's been hard to get excited. With the exception of a small handful of films, I don't think most of these films will be remembered in 20 years, unless we get hit by that astroid. Don't look up!

But once the nominations came out, some good stuff emerged. And I do think there is a big disconnect between when the nominations came out and who could win tonight. 

Blame some of this on the often postponed and scrambled awards schedules due to the fires. Oscars mean nothing in light of that unfortunate and anger-inducing tragedy, but. now that there has been a bit of distance and ever-so-slow recovery, the time feels right to get this year out of the way. Sidebar: I hate when the media drops coverage after the intensity has died down with no detailed follow-ups in the aftermath. 

Many pundits think this year could be wide open, save for Culkin for Supporting Actor and some technical awards for Wicked. This time I tend to agree, especially on BP, Actor, and Actress. 

But the hype this year has been mostly subdued, but then when you have an odd group of films nobody has seen... How many civilians have seen The Brutalist? That's what I thought. And I think this year's show may be the lowest rated yet. 

Folks ask why ratings are always down. The Oscar outgrew their purpose, because of access. Before social media, that was one of the few ways people could see "movie stars" but social media is constant posting, subtweeting, and vomiting every thought about them. 

Film Twitter had been out of control the past few years, but not this one. This is a bit refreshing. But I've said all along, it's about the films at hand, not behind you. 

So I have a few insights and less pontification this round:

1--I say Anora above all, but bias aside, this is my big, burning question: How does it win BP and  Director but not for Actress? I think it's the performance of the year, for Mikey Madison has a poise and can roll with the punches. She'll be around awhile. And I wished Yura Borisov could win. 

2--Then we have Demi Moore, who's been around the block a few times, and folks want to finally  honor her body of work. But The Substance is a great idea in theory but a terrible, one-note movie w/ pyrotechnics; that gory ending could have been cut in half and made the same point. The first half of the film was fascinating, but, like a lot of films lately, the screenwriters wrote themselves into a corner, making for a second-half slog. And Coralie Fargeat had no business being up for Director. 

But will she win? I just don't know at this point. Madison had momentum late, when the ballots were due, and a lot of the anonymous ballots are all over the place. Fernanda Torres could very well upset, but I'm Still Here will win International Film. 

3--One thing for sure, Emilia Perez will win for Zoe Saldana, the best thing in an uneven movie. Karla Sofia Gascon shouldn't be canceled for previous comments, but I do think this dinged the film. 

4--Actor became more interesting as the season chugged along. I love Adrian Brody, and he emerged early on as the one to beat. But he's playing the same role he had in The Pianist, the better performance. But I have yet to speak to anyone who like the film, or even got through all of it. So I think it gets shut out because it's slowly lost momentum. 

But recently Timothee Chalamet has gained momentum, and you can't always go by SAG. He's been worse than a whore in church on the circuit at the right time, and it may work. I'm a huge Dylan fan, seen the man himself three times, and I kinda buy him as Dylan but not completely. But then Sissy Spacek capture Loretta Lynn's aura, but there's a hint of it here. And I know many folks in the music industry are split down the middle on the film itself among those who know Dylan and no. I hope he wins, and he feels "due," thought Clalamet is just getting started. 

There could be a spoiler here in Ralph Fiennes, and I'd be down for that. Talk about a body of work going back to The English Patient which I thought he should have won for, Billy Bob Thornton aside, over Geoffrey Rush, a terrific actor in a gimmicky movie. But Conclave has gained a lot of momentum of late, deservedly so. I went in not expecting much (blame my ex, a hardcore Catholic, for that) and loved it, especially the set design and editing, but the acting puts it over the top. The film will win Adapted Screenplay and possibly Editing, for it's the best edited film in my eyes. 

5--Loved A Real Pain and I do love me some Culkin and Eisenberg, and both will win Oscars, which makes me quite pleased. And Culkin is the only lock I see.

6--WIll Dianę Warren finally win a competitive Oscar? Probably not. I'd love to see Elton John have another Oscar, but "Mi Camino" is winning this.

Last-minute upsets: 

Conclave for BP
Monica Barbaro  or Ariana Grande for Supporting
Edward Norton for Supporting

Enough already! Let's get jiggy with it (sans slapping)

Picture: Anora

upset: Conclave

Actor: Adrian Brody

upset: Timothee Chalemet

Actress: Demi Moore

upset: Mikey Madison

Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin

upset: Edward Norton

Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldana

upset: Monica Barbaro

Adapted Screenplay:: Conclave 

upset: A Complete Unknown

Original Screenplay: A Real Pain

upset: Anora

Animated Feature: Flow

upset: The Wild Robot

International Feature: I'm Still Here

upset: The Seed of a Sacred Fig

Score: The Brutalist

upset: Conclave

Song: Mi Camino

upset: Never Too Late

Cinematography: The Brutalist

upset: Maria

Editing: Conclave

upset: Anora

Production Design: Wicked

upset: Conclave

Costume Design: Wicked

upset: Nosferatu

Sound: Wicked

upset: Dune: Part Two

Visual Effects: Dune: Part Two

upset: Wicked

Makeup and Hairstyling: The Substance

upset: Wicked

Documentary Feature: No Other Land

upset: The Soundtrack to a Coup D'Etat

Documentary Short: Incident

upset: Instruments of a Beating Heart

Animated Short: Wander to Wonder

upset: Magic Candles

Live-Action Short: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

upset: I am Not a Robot

Wins:

Anora     4

Wicked   4

Conclave 3

Emilia Perez 2

The Brutalist 2

The Substance 2

A Complete Unknown 1

Run Time: 3 hours 28 minutes

That's all, folks! Them's. my Predix, and I'm sticking to them!

Feel free to follow my mini-me rants on the socials or mute me til after the State of the Union address (and mute that, too!). 

Again,  no Oscar pool. Saving my bottle caps for the March Madness pool and cheap beer (thank you, Mr. Trump)!

Happy Oscar Sunday, y'all!

And, of course, Shalom!

Boom, Baby! The Maven's Fearless (And Maybe Not-So-Foolish) Oscar Winners Predix Extravaganza!

After several years of Oscar ceremony whiplash, often seeing the Awards being handed out on Labor Day, The Academy came back to their senses and scheduled the show at a more reasonable time (though I would love to see them at the end of February again. Winter Olympics, where art thou?). 

Paradoxically, I decry this, but the Awards came up faster than Trump can come up with cheddar for his judgements. So here we are, in what to me felt like a shortened awards season. Even Film Twitter has been behaving. This year's film crop was overall better than I expected, with no real howlers in the lot, despite my being in the minority opinion on a couple of films, which I'll get to shortly. 

This Awards season began with Barbenheimer and ended on some grand notes, with many fine performances, particularly with Best Actress; this year's lineup rivals the last great bloodbath of a lineup in 2020. The burning question is how many trophies will Oppenheimer or Barbie win? I'm not of the camp that Oppenheimer will sweep like in the old days because the Academy is more diversified. To this point, I think this will be a  share-the-wealth year. 

But Oppenheimer will win several awards, and Christopher Nolan will finally win an Oscar; he deserves it. I'm not a big Nolan fan, and I went into the film cynically but came out a fan. Of course, Nolan's M.O. and downfall is his inability to develop characters of any depth, but he was kinda force to go a bit deeper here because these are real people. But the key to the film is Cillian Murphy. Like with the question I asked with the 2020 Oscar about how despite being a loaded category, how Frances McDormand is the lead role in Nomadland couldn't be considered since the film took most the major awards, how can Oppenheimer win a large handful of Awards and not have Murphy along for the ride. The scene when Oppenheimer speaks to the audience after the bombs have been drop, when he looks amazed at his achievement and horrified at what he's created, Murphy's expressions are a tightrope many actors couldn't pull off quite as well. What his eyes. 

As usual, I crammed for the exam, and here are my observations for how the night may go, as well as an airing of an Oscar grievance or two:

1--The only locks I see w/ any of the major Awards are Robert Downey, Jr. and Da'vine Joy Randolph, the latter of which may be the only Oscar for The Holdovers. Love the film but it peaked early. 

2--Actor started out w/ a Birdman vs The Theory of Everything rivalry between Paul Giamatti vs. Cillian Murphy, but the latter will win. I would, though, love to see Jeffrey Wright upset here (won't happen). 

3--Back to Barbie, I think it will win a couple of trophies. It will win for Best Song, but which one? I love me some Billie Eilish, but this is not her best song, and "I'm Just Ken" is a hell of a lot of fun. I loved "Dance the Night" better than both of those, but it didn't make the cut. 

Barbie is competing head-to-head with Poor Things, which was just flat-out fucking brilliant on every level, and it will be interesting who comes out ahead in the craft categories. 

3--Does the Academy have the balls to award Greta Gerwig for Adapted Screenplay to make up for the lack of a Director nod. I would love it because I love her, but I don't see it.

4--And while we're at it: Is Wes Anderson finally going to win a fucking Oscar? Yes, Virginia, I think he will!

5--Is Oppenheimer's screenplay going to win by rote if it picks up a lot of wins in the lesser categories? I think American Fiction will beat it, and I hope it does, another brilliant film with a layered, hilarious screenplay. 

6--The Holdovers had a real push for Original Screenplay, but folks more recently have been abuzz about Anatomy of a Fall, which, for me, along w/ Poor Things and American Fiction, is the year's best film. It wasn't the French entry for the International Film category (it should have been, and I think would beat the inferior The Zone of Interest) and kicked to the major categories. I think it wins here...

7--...and for Sandra Huller for Actress. I love the film, and am thinking w/ head not heart for these picks, but she shape-shifted her emotions throughout her performance, keeping me on edge and trying to figure out is she had a hand in her husband's death. 

8--And this is far from joining the consensus opinion about the power of the film, but The Zone of Interest had a couple of good shots but otherwise didn't impress me. I know it's bases on a true story, but after the first 20 minutes, I got it. I've liked Jonathan Glazer's other films better, but he did nothing to allow me to care for any of the characters. While I've said for years that more filmmakers should leave a lot to the imagination (and I'm thinking of Mike's Murder from 1983, not a great movie but I liked it, where the title character, who was murdered, is only seen in a photograph on a mantle, not flashbacks). However, it will win International Film. There has been a late surge, but I don't buy it will win Best Picture. 

9--I think Past Lives and The Color Purple (indulge me a shoutout to Danielle Brooks, the pride of Greenville, SC) will get hosed, and if Lily Gladstone doesn't win Actress, Killers of the Flower Moon will be hosed as well. 

10--And notice I've left Actress to the last because this is the one category that started with a lock for Gladstone but is now up in the air. I don't know who will win at this point. Carey Mulligan in Maestro is so nuanced in her performance she almost upstages Bradley Cooper (and he's better than what many are giving him credit for); and I thought she should have won in the Nomadland year for Promising Young Woman. Annette Bening gave one of her best performances (as did Jodie Foster) in Nyad, so that leaves Gladstone, Huller, and Stone. 

Killer Moon peaked early and lasts about 10 hours, so I'm not sure how much that will play here. Emma Stone's performance in Poor Things is a brilliantly comedic tightrope, one of the best comedic performances I've seen because it's so raw, but Sandra Huller also walks a very ambiguous tightrope. I won't be upset with any winner in this category, but my gut says Huller here. But I'd love it if Stone takes it. 

Last-Minute No Guts, No Glory gut-check (h/t Sasha Stone):

Huller for Actress

Not Nolan for Director

Ryan Gosling for Supporting Actor

Enough already! Finally, let's get jiggy with it:

Best Picture: Oppenheimer
upset: The Holdovers

Best Director: Christopher Nolan

upset: Yorgos Lanthimos

Best Actor: Cillian Murphy

upset: Paul Giamatti

Best Actress: Sandra Huller

upset: Lily Gladstone

Best Supporting Actor: Robert Downey, Jr.

upset: Ryan Gosling

Best Supporting Actress: Da'vine Joy Randolph

upset: Jodie Foster

Best Original Screenplay: Anatomy of a Fall

upset: The Holdovers

Best Adapted Screenplay: American Fiction

upset: Barbie

Best International Film: The Zone of Interest

upset: Society of the Snow

Best Animated Feature: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

upset: The Boy and The Heron

Best Song: "What Was I Made For?"--Barbie

upset: "I'm Just Ken"--Barbie

Best Score: Oppenheimer

upset: Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Cinematography: Oppenheimer

upset: Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Editing: Oppenheimer

upset: Anatomy of a Fall

Best Production Design: Poor Things

upset: Barbie

Best Costume Design: Barbie

upset: Poor Things

Best Sound: Oppenheimer

upset: The Zone of Interest

Best Visual Effects: Godzilla Minus One

upset: The Creator

Best Makeup and Hair: Poor Things

upset: Maestro

Best Documentary: 20 Days in Mariupol

upset: Four Daughters

Best Documentary Short: The Last Repair Shop

upset: The ABC's of Book Banning

Best Animated Short: Letter to a Pig

upset: WAR IS OVER

Best Live Action Short: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

upset: The After

Wins:

Oppenheimer    8

Poor Things    3

Anatomy of a Fall  2

Barbie 2

The Holdovers 2

Killers of the Flower Moon 1

Running Time: 3 hours 26 minutes (don't let the early start time fool you)

That's it! Them's my predix, and I'm sticking to them. I'll kvetch throughout the High Holy Day on the social, so follow along or mute me til the Ides of March. 

No Oscar pool this year per higher grocery and beer prices. Priorities!

Happy Oscar Sunday, y'all! And, of course, Shalom, y'all! 

The Bland Leading the Bland: The Maven's Fearless (and Most Definitely Foolish) Oscar Nomination Predix Extravaganza 2024

The Oscar nominations seem to come earlier each year, and this is the furthest behind the Maven has been in writing the annual predix blog. Blame juggling faulty pipes, a research grant, and being academically homeless for the next two years and losing my personal office; the English building is being repurposed into offices for us professors, while a new classroom building is being built--at the same time. 

Still playing catchup with some films (like Academy members have seen them all at this point), but so far this year feels a bit bland. Save for a couple of films, I've just not been bowled over. Not a single film has screamed to me that it's the gold standard that will be remembered 20 years from now; certain performances and elements, yes, but not the films. I hope my opinion changes as I continue to plow through. 

So this one is going to be short. I'll elaborate when I write my final predictions in about six weeks. But a few observations for now:

1--Loved Barbie. It's eye-popping fun that turns in on itself. I never thought it was didactic nor preachy. It's diverse without calling attention to itself. And the performances are fun as hell. And this begs the question: Will Greta Gerwig win a goddamned Oscar finally? Unfortunately no, especially since the Academy moved Screenplay from Original to Adapted. And you know what this means...

2--Oppenheimer will win a lot of trophies, including probably in Adapted. Many of you well know that I am not the biggest Christopher Nolan fan, save for Insomnia, and the first two Batman films. Inception I hate with the passion of Trump supporter in heat. Nolan cannot find character development with two hands usually, and I think he succeeds here lately because he had to work from source material. 

3--The momentum seems to have left Killers of the Flower Moon, save for Lily Gladstone. She's not a lock for Actress but close. 

4--Actor could be interesting, coming down to Cillian Murphy, who is brilliant in everything versus Paul Giamatti, who is also brilliant in everything. 

5--One film I watched because of the two leads with absolutely no expectations because I thought it would be a typical biopic, and I was wrong, is Nyad. I think Bening sneaks into that fifth spot for Actress, since nobody can decide on a category for Sandra Huller. And this is one of Foster's best performances and hasn't a chance in hell of winning. 

6--Amercian Fiction should do well w/ noms, as will Maestro and The Holdovers. The latter film is the most pedestrian, but there's nothing wrong w/ that. 

7--And will Bradley Cooper finally win a goddamned Oscar? Again, not this year. 

Enough already. As usual, I don't do nom predix for docs, short films, foreign film, or music. 

Best Picture

Oppenheimer

Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

The Holdovers

American Fiction

Poor Things

Anatomy of a Fall

Past Lives

The Color Purple

The Zone of Interest

Best Director

Christopher Nolan

Martin Scorsese

Greta Gerwig

Yorgos Lanthimos

Bradley Cooper

---

Alexander Payne

Jonathan Glazer

Justine Triet

Best Actor

Cillian Murphy

Paul Giamatti

Jeffrey Wright

Bradley Cooper

Colman Domingo

---

Leonardo DiCaprio

Joaquin Phoenix

Adam Driver

Best Actress

Lily Gladstone

Margot Robbie

Emma Stone

Carey Mulligan

Annette Bening

---

Sandra Huller

Fantasia Barrino

Greta Lee

Best Supporting Actor

Robert Downey, Jr. 

Ryan Gosling

Robert DeNiro

Mark Ruffalo

Charles Melton

---

Sterling K. Brown

Willem Dafoe

Dominic Sessa

Best Supporting Actress

 Da'Vine Joy Randolph

Jodie Foster

Danielle Brooks

Emily Blunt

America Ferrera

---

Viola Davis

Julianne Moore

Rosamund Pike

Best Original Screenplay

The Holdovers

Maestro

Past Lives

Anatomy of a Fall

Air

---

May December

Saltburn

Astroid City

Best Adapted Screenplay

Oppenheimer

Barbie

Poor Things

American Fiction

Killers of the Flower Moon

---

The Zone of Interest

Nyad

The Color Purple

Best Cinematography

Oppenheimer

Killers of the Flower Moon

Barbie

Maestro

The Zone of Interest

---

The Color Purple

El Conde

Napoleon

Best Editing

Oppenheimer

Killers of the Flower Moon

Barbie

Poor Things

Maestro

---

Anatomy of a Fall

The Holdovers

Ferrari

Best Production Design

Barbie

Poor Things

Oppenheimer

Killers of the Flower Moon

Astroid City

---

The Color Purple

Napoleon

Saltburn

Best Costume Design

Barbie

Poor Things

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Napoleon

---

Oppenheimer

The Color Purple

Wonka

Best Sound

Oppenheimer

Maestro

Killers of the Flower Moon

Barbie

Ferrari

---

The Zone of Interest

Napoleon

Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part I

Best Makeup

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Golda

Killers of the Flower Moon

---

Society of the Snow

Napoleon

Beau is Afraid

Best Visual Effects

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Poor Things

Spider-man: Across the Spider-verse

The Creator

Godzilla Minus One

---

Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part I

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Society of the Snow

Nominations

Oppenheimer                        12

Killers of the Flower Moon    11

Barbie                                    10

Poor Things                           8

The Holdovers                       6 

Maestro                                 6                          

Napoleon                              5

American Fiction                  4

Anatomy of a Fall                 3

I did not italicize film titles because Maven ain't got time for that. 

Them's my predix, and I'm sticking by them. The long haul begins at 8:30 in the morn. And my students will watch with me as usual. 

My work is done here until March 10th. Follow me or mute me on the socials to follow along. 

Happy Oscar Nominations Day, y'all! Seasons Screenings and, of course, Shalom!

Don't Call It A Comeback: The Maven's Fearless (And Not-So-Foolish) Oscar Winners Extravaganza

The Oscars are finally earlier than normal (I miss you, 2020, before everything went to hell), but what fresh hell is with the scheduling gods laying vengeance upon The Maven, with the trifecta of Oscar Sunday, Selection Sunday, and Springing forward? I'll be all to hell tomorrow on various levels. 

In all my years of pontificating and kvetching, this is the quietest Oscar season in recent memory, which is a good thing, as Martha would say. Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett (signing the praises of her fellow nominees along the way), Austin Butler, and Sarah Polley have been everywhere save for the Home Shopping Network and campaigning as if trying to prevent Trump from winning the presidential election again. This cycle has turned into a blast and a half, the best since the 2020 Oscars before everything stopped in its tracks. Nothing wrong with a big lovefest at the moment. We need it. 

Notice the one nominee missing on the circuit: Andrea Riseborough. I think the Academy calling shenanigans on the word-of-mouth campaign pre-nominations, which is BS because this happens all the time, but they got "caught." Does anyone not remember many in the actor's branch using social media and a whisper campaign to push Bradley Cooper for American Sniper? And it's a shame because Riseborough is exceptional, and I hope everyone sees To Leslie despite the Oscars. But she's been nowhere, so I went from her possibly upsetting to she's out.

The nadir between when the ballots are due and the ceremony is the worst, with everyone second-guessing everything. Caught myself doing it as well today, but enough. Nothing to be done now, for it's all over but the shouting. 

Here are a few last-minute observations:

1--Sarah Polley is finally going to win the goddamned Oscar! She's been in the industry forever, has been through hell, and has built a pretty damned cool reputation behind the camera. The industry loves her, and she richly deserves it. And how did she miss on Director? If she doesn't win, I'll riot!

2--I think Everything Everywhere will have the most wins with six, followed by Elvis with four. Or are folks sick of musical biopics? Remember Bohemian Rhapsody? And I don't see Brendan Fraser winning. I just don't. 

3--I think this is a spread-the-love year, but Babylon, The Fabelmans, TAR, and possibly The Banshees of Inisherin will be hosed. I hope not the latter, but Original Screenplay may be its only award. There's been a late surge for Condon, and that may be the night's surprise, unless Barry Keoghan upset in Supporting Actor, but I think Quan may be the only true lock at this point. 

4--Elvis is terrible and wildly uneven, almost unwatchable in the first half, but the second half of the film I think will net Butler the win. He saves that film,carries that film, and he's the cat's ass in it. 

5--Actress is a bloodbath. I can't wait to see Michelle Yeoh finally win, but I won't be upset if Blanchett takes it, either, exactly. But I don't see how Yeoh doesn't win at this point. 

6--And what to make of Supporting Actress. I thought Angela Bassett was a lock (and she should have won for What's Love Got To Do with It?; it's still one of the great female performances but nobody was beating Holly Hunter that year. It sucks, like this year, when there are so many cool performances stacked against one another. But I called Jamie Lee Curtis before SAG, and if about 10k actors versus close to 4k in the Academy voted Curtis, then what? Do I think there could be some vote-splitting this time? Yes, actually, I do. I know it's in the nadir when all the pundits claim this, when many say this when the categories are essentially settled, but this year may be a sneaky one. So would Condon be the only Banshees winner? We'll see!

The Last-Minute Gut-Check:

Top Gun for Picture

Colin Farrell for Actor

Andrea Riseborough for Actress (keep hope alive!)

Condon for Supporting Actress

"Hold My Hand" for Song

Enough already! I'm worn out from grading and the ensuing time-change, so here is how I think the wins will go down:

Best Picture: Everything Everywhere All at Once

upset: All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Director: Daniels

upset: Steven Spielberg

Best Actor: Austin Butler

upset: Brendan Fraser

Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh

upset: Cate Blanchett

Best Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan

upset: Barry Keoghan

Best Supporting Actress: Jamie Lee Curtis

upset: Kerry Condon

Best Original Screenplay: The Banshees of Inisherin

upset: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Adapted Screenplay: Women Talking

upset: All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Animated Feature: Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio

upset: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Best International Film: All Quiet on the Western Front

upset: EO

Best Score: All Quiet on the Western Front

upset: The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Original Song: "RRR"

upset: "Lift Me Up"

Best Documentary: Nevalny

upset: All the Beauty and Bloodshed

Best Cinematography: All Quiet on the Western Front

upset: Elvis

Best Editing: Everything Everywhere All at Once

upset: Top Gun: Maverick

Best Production Design: Elvis

upset: Babylon

Best Costume Design: Elvis

upset: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Sound: Top Gun: Maverick

upset: Elvis

Best Visual Effects: Avatar: The Way of Water

upset: Top Gun: Maverick

Best Makeup: Elvis

upset: The Whale

Best Animated Short: The Boy, The Mule, The Fox, and The Horse

upset: Ice Merchants

Best Documentary Short: The Elephant Whispers

upset: Stranger at the Gate

Best Live Action Short: An Irish Goodbye

upset: Le Pupille

Wins

Everything Everywhere All at Once        6

Elvis                                                        4

All Quiet on the Western Front               2

The Banshees of Inisherin                     2

Running time: 3 hours 16 minutes

As usual, the predictions and win totals differ.

That's it! Them's my predix, and I'm sticking to them. I'll be venting throughout the High Holy Day on the socials, so follow along or mute me until Wednesday. 

Again, no Oscar pool this year per high beer prices. 

Happy Oscar Sunday, y'all! And, of course, Shalom!

Erin Go Blah! The Maven's Fearless (and Probably Foolish) Oscar Nomination Predix 2023

Now we are back to our regularly-scheduled Oscar Season, what with the pandemic largely behind us and no Olympics on the horizon. The Ceremony will be on March 12th, back to a more reasonable time instead at the Fourth of July. But nomination day has blindsided me!

I have been out of the loop this go-round, partially because I taught six classes this fall, but largely because I haven't felt the urgency with this possible crop. There are some exceptions, though, but otherwise I'm still plowing through Oscar bait. 

But I have been in touch w/ several members to get a bede on how things may go. A few quick observations, as usual:

1--The Fablemans, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and, yes, Top Gun: Maverick and Avatar: The Way of Water will get a lot of noms. We've seen this Spielberg movie before, and I sense that Hollywood is settling into a feel-good movie groove for a bit. 

2--That said, Everything Everywhere is not like anything I, or the Academy, has seen before, so it's a wild card, save for Ke Huy Quan being a near-certainty to win Supporting Actor. 

3--Speaking of actors, at the moment I see three of the four acting categories as probably locks: Cate Blanchett (#3, baby!), Quan, and Angela Bassett for Supporting Actress. Actor  is all over the map this time. It's between Brendan Fraser and Colin Farrell, and I'm not convinced Fraser will win, but I'm also not sure Farrell will. Austin Butler will be up in a terrible movie, but he's the wild card. But let's not put the cart before the horse. 

4--I'm also not sure how many noms The Whale will receive. I've heard mixed from many I've talked to. Is it just Fraser and Screenplay? This time, I'm clueless on the trajectory on this one. 

5--I got a great kick (no pun intended) out of Banshees. I have an Irish lit specialization (and almost studied Irish film at one point), and this is pure Ireland. I don't see how you have Farrell without Brendan Gleeson, who's always been the cat's ass and has never been nominated. That changes tomorrow morning. 

6--Banshees, Everything, and Women Talking are the horses I'm riding this year. As far as promotion/chat shows/when the ballots are out there, Women has been flooding the zone. Sarah Polley, whom I've loved since The Sweet Hereafter and an even better filmmaker, is loved by the industry, and this film is a slow burn, so damned subtle in addressing a hot-button issue. It's brilliant. I do think Polley (hopefully), is a lock for Adapted Screenplay. I also hope Jessie Buckley is along for the ride as well. 

7--I think Babylon will be hosed in the major categories. It'll get some technical nods, but it's not memorable. 

8--Can a donkey get a nomination? Several other asses in Hollywood have...

Enough already. As usual, I don't do docs, shorts, foreign films, or music. 

Best Picture

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Banshees of Inisherin

The Fabelmans

Top Gun: Maverick

TAR

Elvis

Women Talking

All Quiet on the Western Front

All Quiet on the Western Front

The Whale

Best Director

Steven Spielberg

Daniels

Martin McDonagh

Todd Field

Sarah Polley

---

Edward Berger

James Cameron

Joseph Kosinski

Best Actor

Colin Farrell

Brendan Fraser

Austin Butler

Bill Nighy

Paul Mescal

---

Tom Cruise

Tom Hanks

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett

Michelle Yeoh

Danielle Deadwyler

Viola Davis

Ana de Armas

---

Michelle Williams

Andrea Riseborough

Best Supporting Actor

Ke Huy Quan

Brendan Gleeson

Paul Dano

Barry Keoghan

Ben Wishaw

---

Eddie Redmayne

Bryan Tyree Henry

Judd Hirsch

Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett

Kerry Condon

Jamie Lee Curtis

Stephanie Hsu

Jessie Buckley

---

Hong Chau

Michelle Williams

Janelle Monae

Best Original Screenplay

The Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

TAR

Triangle of Sadness

---

Aftersun

The Menu

Babylon

Best Adapted Screenplay

Women Talking

The Whale

Living

She Said

Top Gun: Maverick

---

All Quiet on the Western Front

Glass Onion

Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio

Best Cinematography

Top Gun: Maverick

Empire of Light

The Batman

All Quiet on the Western Front

The Fabelmans

---

Avatar: The Way of Water

Elvis

Women Talking

Best Editing

Top Gun: Maverick

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Elvis

The Fabelmans

The Banshees of Inisherin

---

All Quiet on the Western Front

Babylon

Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Production Design

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Babylon

Elvis

Avatar: The Way of Water

All Quiet on the Western Front

---

The Fablemans

Glass Onion

Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio

Best Costume Design

Elvis

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Babylon

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

---

The Woman King

Don't Worry Darling

The Fabelmans

Best Sound

Top Gun: Maverick

All Quiet on the Western Front

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Visual Effects 

Avatar: The Way of Water

Top Gun: Maverick 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

The Batman

Nope

---

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Thirteen Lives

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

Best Makeup

Elvis

The Whale

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Blonde

---

Amsterdam

All Quiet on the Western Front

Babylon

Nominations

Everything Everywhere All at Once    9

The Banshees of Inisherin                   8

The Fabelmans                                      7

Top Gun: Maverick                                6

Elvis                                                        6

Women Talking                                      5

Them's my predix, and I'm sticking to them. The slog starts in the AM 8:30, and my students will endure watching the announcement with me. 

My work here is done until March 12th. Follow me or mute me on the socials: Facebook, Twitter (@Franster23), and/or Instagram (@themsmaven) from now until March. The usual kvetching will continue. 

Happy Oscar Nominations Day, y'all! And, of course, Shalom and Seasons Screenings!