Finally, spring is upon us, and the Oscar road ends tomorrow night, finally. This season has felt longer than a rambling Trump speech, if that's possible. Add to this the cruelty of March Madness taking place on the same weekend, and the last game of the weekend (Go Tar Heels!) is bumping up against the start of the show. Madness!
This year's crop of films have been hit-and-miss, as most are. But the rumblings I've heard throughout, from friends, pundits, and voters alike saying the mantra, "I really admire this film, but..." I've heard it about most of the films up for Best Picture except for CODA. Is it the little movie that could? Kinda, until it was snapped up for a record $25 million by Apple, and since the nominations it's flooded the zone with television and print ads, so it ain't little anymore. The kicker is that is it largely universally loved, which is rare for a BP nominee; most often that category is made up of films that voters think will represent the industry, but are admired and not loved.
I think there are smatterings of movie love across several categories this year. This should be a time for celebrate the movies you love, and the performances you root for to win. But it's out of control now, and Film Twitter has gotten worse. In the last couple of weeks I've seen tons of wokeness and shaming of some who express their opinions on what he/she likes and why, some crudely honest. So if someone loves, say Kristen Stewart in Spencer (she's fine, but I don't care for the film save for the ending, and, yes, they can be separate entities) but another likes Nicole Kidman (wildly uneven w/ the accent but I did finally buy her as Lucy in what is a better Sorkin film than Chicago 7, but thank Bardem), many pile on w/ cruel invective about the wrong choice. It's like what I tell my students in my literature and film classes: I can give you shit all day for liking Tim Burton films (which I'm about to ban in my Intro to film class. If I read one more Edward Scissorhands essay...) or hating Walt Whitman, but I can never tell you that you are wrong for liking or hating them. This year has been particularly nasty it seems. Again, you love what you love, but don't take it personally if I don't, or vice versa.
And relitigating years past can be fun, but this year it seems analytics have taken over. So there have been many arguments, including, for example, how can a film like CODA with three nominations win BP? Or, the BP winner usually picks up an Oscar nom for Editing, so now what? Stop w/ analyzing the data! These traditions have been busted before, and if there is enough love for a film, none of that matters. For those trying to look at patterns of voting and such, and I say this every year, "The Academy" doesn't vote as a monolith. Members don't sit in a room and go over the categories like pundits do. They vote for friends, studios that employed them, and some don't fill out their entire ballot. I bet if the vote totals per category were release it would make things worse, but I stand by my offer to sleep w/ a member of Price Waterhouse Coopers (name change again?) to get those totals.
Just look at what's been hot while the ballots are out there to get clues. I didn't have the guts last year to pull the trigger to predict Anthony Hopkins outright but thought he would upset Chadwick Boseman. I was fine w/ Boseman (and I think he would have won an Oscar along the way had he lived), but he's been better in other moves, so I ask: Had he not died so young (and I'm still not quite over it; he was the pride of Anderson, South Carolina), would he have been made the frontrunner out of the gate? I don't think so because it would have been a two-man race. For me, Hopkins was better (don't @ me, just my preference). And at least this year the show won't end w/ the category with the most suspense (Best Actress this go-round) because it horrifically backfired last year. I love Steven Soderbergh the writer/editor/director, but don't let him produce the show again, pandemic or no.
This year I'm for all things CODA, Drive My Car, Licorice Pizza (PTA Baby!), and The Power of the Dog, and I have no idea how the awards will shake out. The final weekend usually makes us second-guess our choices and if there will be upsets galore, and usually once we reach Sunday those films rewards tend to fall in line, then after it's like, Oh yeah!
I have some observations here, so buckle up, buttercup:
1--I think CODA will win the three Oscars it's nominated for. Some wonder if it could have been up for more. Not really, because it's an intimate family drama that is funny and moving, w/ us about to be nuked in a month or so (kidding, I think) because of Putin and Ukraine, gas prices, and coming somewhat out of the two-year plague, it's been universally praised because it's accepted for what it is. I've only heard two people who said it was too pedestrian, but I think it's an excellent film hitting it's stride. I hope it wins!
2--And why in the hell isn't CODA up for sound? Think about it. The silences are just as important for that film.
3--I'm a huge Jane Campion fan (if you haven't seen Sweetie, her first film, do so, and The Piano is one of my favorite films from the 90's), and The Power of the Dog is in line w/ her oeuvre. Except, this is one of those films that many say they admire but not love. Understandable, because it doesn't have the "happy ending," and it's not the most accessible film. But I read the source material, and Campion keyed in. She'll win Director, though many have said they are not voting for her because of what she said about the Williams sisters at the Critics Choice Awards. It was in poor taste, she apologized, move on. But will this cost her winning? I don't think so, but maybe that would be the surprise win that pundits are still trying to figure out. She could win Adapted Screenplay (I'm thinking Maggie Gyllenhall could upset because though many don't seem to care for The Lost Daughter, the industry loves her and may want to reward her) and I would love to see Jonny Greenwood finally win for Score (Hans Zimmer looks to win there), but Director and possibly Cinematography could be its only awards. And I don't know who would upset Campion. Some have said in their anonymous ballots (and this year they were out there on steroids. They're usually fun, but this year too much) they voted for Spielberg. Ariana DeBose, Rita Moreno (always great), and Rachel Zegler (she finally got a ticket to the show. How stupid to not send an invite. Talk about inclusion!) are fabulous, but I don't know why West Side Story was even made. It feels like a lesser carbon-copy of the original. Now if Speilberg had modernized it to current times, now that is a movie I want to see. But I was bored out of my mind w/ this one, though the production design was cool.
4--Both Screenplay Categories are as suspenseful this year to me as Actress. Original Screenplay is far less certain. Out of the gate of the nominations, it looked like Paul Thomas Anderson would finally win a goddamned Oscar, but Licorice Pizza is a movie you like or you don't, and I don't know a lot of folks who like the film, saying it's messy and not about anything. Voters don't like messy, but I do. And though I like the film a lot, this is far from his best screenplay. But as I've said about some surprise wins over the years: actors and filmmakers often don't win for his or her best work. I think this is where Belfast will win its award deservedly for a lovely film, but when the ballots were out The Worst Person in the World is getting a lot of love. Don't be surprised if it upsets. And Don't Look Up may have won the WGA, but they don't always align, and as much as I enjoyed the film, it is wildly uneven, as are most Adam McKay films (though Winning Time is the best thing he's done, Lakers bias aside).
5--And speaking of never winning, will Diane Warren finally win a goddamned Oscar? Not this year. Nobody knows the film she's up for (Four Good Days) because it was buried (and surprised no one was advocating for Glenn Close, but that's another story. I still haven't seen the film). This year like last, this is a toss-up category. Lin-Manuel Miranda may finally get his EGOT here, but I hope Billie Eilish wins for No Time to Die. It's the perfect Bond song, plus the show will celebrate the 60th anniversary of the film series.
6--I hope the show is decent. Anything would be better than last year's broadcast. But I've noticed, except for television ads featuring the hosts, there are none showing clips from the major categories like in the past several years and are pretty generic. I know Will Packer wants the show to play to TV land and be inclusive, but I want to see a show that celebrates the movies that are up. No clips last year sucked; the one year you would think there would be more clips... My gut says this show won't be great. Packer sounds a little too optimistic here. Yes, I'm cynical. And it's still going to last over three hours.
7--Dune will win the most Oscars, and it will also be a case of spreading the love.
8--So I'm guilty of discussing Best Actress last here, just like the Boseman debacle. I said from the beginning that I think Jessica Chastain will win, and I was actually surprised she won the SAG because around that time many thought Kidman would win (and I did too, reluctantly). Spencer is terrific in a diorama of a movie, Olivia Coleman is better in The Lost Daughter than in that catfight The Favourite, and Kidman is along for the ride at this point. But several people I've talked to and many anonymous ballots indicate members voted for Penelope Cruz. Could she upset? Absolutely! This is the only nominee in all the major categories I've not seen, and am going to try to squeeze in before basketball resumes tonight. I do think this year w/ those blind ballots is a different scenario than the Hopkins/Boseman situation I've already discussed. Don't be surprised if she takes it (and I said she was the one who wouldn't win early on, silly me), but I'm sticking w/ Chastain. She's always good, and the industry loves her, but they love Cruz as well. We'll see. I'm going to be wrong again, aren't I?
I've discussed my gut checks already, and I don't have anything else because anything could happen this year. My one surprise win I would love to see happen: Jessie Buckly. I think she's better than Coleman in The Lost Daughter.
So here are my predictions in all the categories:
Best Picture: CODA
upset: The Power of the Dog
Best Director: Jane Campion
upset: Kenneth Branagh
Best Actor: Will Smith
upset: Benedict Cumberbatch
Best Actress: Jessica Chastain
upset: Penelope Cruz
Best Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur
upset: Kodi Smith-McPhee
Best Supporting Actress: Ariana DeBose
upset: Kirsten Dunst
Best Original Screenplay: Belfast
upset: The Worse Person in the World
Best Adapted Screenplay: CODA
upset: The Lost Daughter
Best Foreign Film: Drive My Car
upset: The Worse Person in the World
Best Animated Feature: Encanto
upset: Flee
Best Song: No Time to Die
upset: Be Alive
Best Score: Dune
upset: The Power of the Dog
Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog
upset: Dune
Best Editing: King Richard
upset: Dune
Best Production Design: Dune
upset: Nightmare Alley
Best Costumes: Cruella
upset: Nightmare Alley
Best Sound: Dune
upset: West Side Story
Best Visual Effects: Dune
upset: Spiderman: No Way Home
Best Documentary: Summer of Soul
upset: Flee
Best Documentary Short: The Queen of Basketball
upset: Audible
Best Animated Short: Robin Robin
upset: The Windshield Wiper
Best Live Action Short: The Long Goodbye
upset: Please Hold
WINS
Dune 4
CODA 3
The Power of the Dog 2
King Richard 2
The Eyes of Tammy Faye 2
Drive My Car 1
West Side Story 1
Running Time: 3 hours 12 minutes
As usual, the predictions and win totals differ.
That's all, folks! Them's my predix, and I'm standing by them. I'll be venting my high holy day on the socials, so follow along or mute me until Tuesday. Again, no Oscar pool due to too much uncertainty and high gas prices.
Happy Oscar Sunday, y'all! And, of course, Shalom!
