On the cusp of summer and two months hence from the norm, finally we've come to the end of the Oscar road. As usual, it was about the same awards cycle where every kind of prediction was pontificated and #FilmTwitter ate its own, as usual. Starting from a point of not knowing if there would be an Oscar season at all, this year shook out quite well, with not really a clinker in the bunch of nominees, especially in the acting categories.
The awards timetable has been so scrambled that it was hard to see any film or performance gain traction. I believe this may be why some categories, especially Actress, are up in the air, happily. And, yes, these past few weeks felt like the usual bitchfest, a sign amid this pandemic that we are slowly getting back to normal.
I don't have a whole lot to add here. Despite the hiccups, it's been a fun season w/ some damned good performances that will stand the test of time, winners or no, which I cannot always say. And one thing to keep in mind with the voting: an Academy voter said recently, "I'm not an Oscar nerd." Those who vote often see this as an afterthought, though due to the lockdown I believe many members saw more of the films than normal.
So here are a few last-minute observations:
1--Nomadland will win the most here. I'm predicting four wins, could be five if McDormand is along for the ride. But you all realize she'll win a third Oscar is the film wins Picture, right?
2--That said, I think she and, sadly, Vanessa Kirby, are out of the running. But I will be thrilled with any one of the five Actress nominees that wins. All season I've crowed about Carey Mulligan, and I stand by my prediction for her, bias aside. Viola Davis should have had her 2nd Oscar years ago for The Help (or first rather), and I won't be shocked if she wins here, despite not being convinced by the SAG Award; there have been several times the winner doesn't carry over. You all know my love for Davis, so none of this is a knock on her, just the process. But I have to admit I'm still haunted by Andra Day's performance. Reminds me a lot of Renee Zellweger's performance in Judy, a great performance in a so-so movie (and Happy Birthday, Renee!), where something snapped loose and Day burrowed into the role in a way I didn't expect, this despite the fact that Lee Daniels can't edit a film to save his life and can't get over the Douglas Sirk overtones. I'll be thrilled if she wins, too. The embarrassment of acting riches isn't a bad problem to have here.
3--So many voters have said that they think Boseman will win so they voted for Anthony Hopkins. Think he pulls if off?
4--Thrilled w/ Lakeith Stanfield being in there, but he by rights should be up for Actor. And though I love Kaluuya and Judah, I would kill to see Paul Raci win. There is a lot of love for him out there, but still.
5--The Trial of the Chicago 7 will get hosed. It's a made-for-TV movie w/ not Aaron Sorkin's best screenplay but a lot of nice performances (and Langella should have been up, he plays sons-of-bitches well).
6--Mank will win one, for Production Design. Save for the look of the film and Seyfried, for me it's a beautiful package with nothing inside. I've seen it twice, and I finally figured out the missing element is the element of passion for movies. But Hollywood does like movies about movies, though.
7--I've buried the lead: women are going to win a shit ton of Oscars tonight. I still think Emerald Fennell will win Original Screenplay, and Chloe Zhao could win all four she is up for (though I think Sound of Metal will win Editing and Sound). That would be pretty damned cool!
8--So is Diane Warren going to finally win a goddamned Oscar tonight? Probably not. I would love for Leslie Odom, Jr. to win Supporting Actor, but he'll win here. And One Night in Miami got hosed, too.
My last-minute gut check:
Riz Ahmed for Actor
Day or Davis for Actess (yes, I'm waffling but not giving in)
Raci for Supporting Actor
Maria Bakalova for Supporting Actress (I would kill for this to happen!)
That's all I got. Here are my Predix, along w/ the upsets:
Best Picture: Nomadland
upset: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Director: Chloe Zhao
upset: Emerald Fennell
Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman
upset: Riz Ahmed
Best Actress: Carey Mulligan
upset: Andra Day
Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
upset: Paul Raci
Best Supporting Actress: Yuh-Jung Youn
upset: Maria Bakalova
Best Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman
upset: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Adapted Screenplay: Nomadland
upset: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Best International Film: Another Round
upset: Quo Vadis, Aida?
Best Animated Feature: Soul
upset: Wolfwalkers
Best Song: Speak Now (One Night in Miami)
upset: Io Si (The Life Ahead)
Best Cinematography: Nomadland
upset: Mank
Best Editing: Sound of Metal
upset: Nomadland
Best Production Design: Mank
upset: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Costume Design: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
upset: Emma
Best Sound: Sound of Metal
upset: Soul
Best Visual Effects: Tenet
upset: The Midnight Sky
Best Makeup: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
upset: Hillbilly Elegy
Best Documentary: My Octopus Teacher
upset: Crip Camp
Best Documentary Short: A Concerto is a Conversation
upset: Colette
Best Animated Short: If Anything Happens, I Love You
upset: Opera
Best Live-Action Short: Two Distant Strangers
upset: The Letter Room
Wins
Nomadland 4
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom 3
Promising Young Woman. 2
Sound of Metal 2
Soul 2
Mank 1
Judah/Black Messiah 1
Minari 1
Running Time: 3 hours 26 minutes
As usual, Win totals may be separate from other predictions.
And I finally made the Awards Daily Big Bad Predictions Chart! Something good finally came out of the pandemic!
That's all, folks. Them's my Predix, and I'm standing by them. And this years show should be interesting, especially with Soderbergh at the helm. It'll be as trippy as this past year has been.
And I wish Chadwick Boseman was here to experience this.
The Maven will be venting the annual rite of passage on the socials (Facebook and @Franster23 on Twitter), so follow along or block me until Tuesday. And no Oscar pool again this year, everybody's broke.
Happy Oscar Sunday, y'all! And of course, Shalom!
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