Viewers Askew: The Maven's Fearless (and Possibly Foolish) Oscar Nomination Predix 2022

 The Rona has upend the awards season, and I'm not talking Rona Barrett. 

Even a year after the first pandemic Oscars, there are big gaps this year between awards before the Oscars air in June, and I had to dig for a couple of days through Twitter to find the Golden Globe winners via Tweet. I would have thought the askew schedule would have occurred last season, not this one. And we have the Olympics again, actually being played. 

How late am I this time? About 12 hours before the nominations are announced. I've never been this late in the game!

Film releases felt muted all year, but everything felt muted this year. Save for seeing w/ some ads "Only in Theaters," most of the possible contenders are available via stream or on-demand, one of the few good elements to come out of this pandemic. 

I've not been bowled over by this year's crop of films, save for The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, and Don't Look Up (a hell of a fun mess). I have not seen Belfast nor the Tragedy of MacBeth. West Side Story is fun, but I'm not sure it has momentum. Dune is visually cool but I won't remember it in 20 years (save for Zendaya, but I'm thinking more Euphoria. Jesus!). And there aren't many small or foreign films lurking around for a spot this time, save for Drive My Car, which may at least be up for Director over Spielberg; I know one of the DGA nominees won't make it, and that's the one because WSS underperformed. This is one of those years that lends to my position now that television is better than movies at the moment. You're going to tell me last night's episode of Euphoria isn't better than a theatrical feature?

So not much to say at the moment, but a few observations:

1--The Power of the Dog will get a shit ton of nominations, deservedly. And I think Plemons will sneak in, and Dunst is forgiven for Melancholia. 

2--Actress is wide open. Since the fall, many have squawked about Kristen Stewart being left out of nominations for other awards, but I'm not surprised by this. Director Pablo Larrain makes dioramas, not movies. She may make the cut, but I don't see it. 

3--So if Wes Anderson isn't going to win a goddamned Oscar this year (love The French Dispatch, but many did not), will the other Anderson win finally? I think he will (Screenplay), and Licorice Pizza will do well nominationswise. And look for Alana Haim to be up for Actress. 

Enough already. I'm still wiped out by the pandemic, a new kitten destroying the house, course planning, and trying to sleep. As usual, I don't do docs, shorts, foreign film, or music. No overthinking this time because the crop is slim pickings. I got nothing else, so here goes:

Best Picture

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

Belfast

Dune

Licorice Pizza

Kind Richard

CODA 

Don't Look Up

...tick, tick... Boom!

Nightmare Alley

Best Director

Jane Campion

Paul Thomas Anderson

Kenneth Branagh

Denis Villenueve

Ryusuke Hamaguchi

---

Steven Spielberg

Adan McKay

Guillermo Del Toro

Best Actor

Benedict Cumberbatch

Will Smith

Denzel Washington

Javier Bardem

Andrew Garfield

---

Leonardo DiCaprio

Peter Dinklage

Mahershala Ali

Best Actress

Oliva Coleman

Nicole Kidman

Lady Gaga

Alana Haim

Jessica Chastain

---

Jennifer Hudson

Kristen Stewart

Penelope Cruz

Best Supporting Actor

Kodi Smit-McPhee

Troy Kotsur

Bradley Cooper

Ciaran Hinds

Jesse Plemons

---

Jared Leto

Ben Affleck

Mike Faist

Best Supporting Actress

Ariana DeBose

Kirsten Dunst

Aunjanue Ellis

Baitriona Balfe

---

Rita Moreno

Cate Blanchett

Marlee Matlin

Original Screenplay

Licorice Pizza

Belfast

Don't Look Up

Being the Ricardos

King Richard

---

The French Dispatch

Parallel Mothers

A Hero

Adapted Screenplay

The Power of the Dog

The Lost Daughter

CODA

West Side Story

Drive My Car

---

The Tragedy of Macbeth

Passing

Nightmare Alley

Best Cinematography

The Power of the Dog

Dune

The Tragedy of Macbeth

Belfast

Nightmare Alley

---

West Side Story

Licorice Pizza

Don't Look Up

Best Editing

Dune

The Power of the Dog

Licorice Pizza

Don't Look Up

West Side Story

---

Belfast

No Time to Die

Nightmare Alley

Best Production Design

Nightmare Alley

The French Dispatch

Dune

The Tragedy of Macbeth

West Side Story

---

Licorice Pizza 

House of Gucci

Spencer

Best Costume Design

Cruella

House of Gucci

Nightmare Alley

Dune

Cyrano

---

West Side Story

Spencer

Licorice Pizza

Best Sound

Dune

West Side Story

No Time to Die

A Quiet Place II

Spider-Man: No Way Home

Best Visual Effects

Dune

Spider-Man: No Way Home

No Time to Die

Godzilla vs Kong

Ghostbusters: Afterlife

---

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

The Matrix Resurrections

Eternals

Best Makeup

The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Cruella

Dune

House of Gucci

The Suicide Squad

---

West Side Story

Spencer

Cyrano

Nominations

The Power of the Dog    11

Dune                               8

West Side Story              8

Licorice Pizza                 7

Belfast                            7

King Richard                  5

CODA                            5

Don't Look Up                3

Them's my Predix, and I'm sticking to them. There'll be a smattering of surprises, and ommisions will happen. The agony begins about 8:15am, and my class will be watching along w/ me. 

My work is done here until March 27th (okay, a bit earlier than last year, but still. Summer movies are now coming out around that time). Follow me on Facebook, Twitter (@Franster23), and Instagram (@themsmaven) for the usual bitchiest and kvetching. If you can't handle it, mute me two weeks before the ceremony and two days after. 

Happy Oscar Nominations Day, y'all! And, of course, Shalom and Season's Screenings! 

Better Late Than Never: The Maven's Fearless (and Probably Foolish) Oscar Predix 2021

On the cusp of summer and two months hence from the norm, finally we've come to the end of the Oscar road.  As usual, it was about the same awards cycle where every kind of prediction was pontificated and #FilmTwitter ate its own, as usual. Starting from a point of not knowing if there would be an Oscar season at all, this year shook out quite well, with not really a clinker in the bunch of nominees, especially in the acting categories. 

The awards timetable has been so scrambled that it was hard to see any film or performance gain traction. I believe this may be why some categories, especially Actress, are up in the air, happily. And, yes, these past few weeks felt like the usual bitchfest, a sign amid this pandemic that we are slowly getting back to normal. 

I don't have a whole lot to add here. Despite the hiccups, it's been a fun season w/ some damned good performances that will stand the test of time, winners or no, which I cannot always say. And one thing to keep in mind with the voting: an Academy voter said recently, "I'm not an Oscar nerd." Those who vote often see this as an afterthought, though due to the lockdown I believe many members saw more of the films than normal. 

So here are a few last-minute observations:

1--Nomadland will win the most here. I'm predicting four wins, could be five if McDormand is along for the ride. But you all realize she'll win a third Oscar is the film wins Picture, right?

2--That said, I think she and, sadly, Vanessa Kirby, are out of the running. But I will be thrilled with any one of the five Actress nominees that wins. All season I've crowed about Carey Mulligan, and I stand by my prediction for her, bias aside. Viola Davis should have had her 2nd Oscar years ago for The Help (or first rather), and I won't be shocked if she wins here, despite not being convinced by the SAG Award; there have been several times the winner doesn't carry over. You all know my love for Davis, so none of this is a knock on her, just the process. But I have to admit I'm still haunted by Andra Day's performance. Reminds me a lot of Renee Zellweger's performance in Judy, a great performance in a so-so movie (and Happy Birthday, Renee!), where something snapped loose and Day burrowed into the role in a way I didn't expect, this despite the fact that Lee Daniels can't edit a film to save his life and can't get over the Douglas Sirk overtones. I'll be thrilled if she wins, too. The embarrassment of acting riches isn't a bad problem to have here. 

3--So many voters have said that they think Boseman will win so they voted for Anthony Hopkins. Think he pulls if off? 

4--Thrilled w/ Lakeith Stanfield being in there, but he by rights should be up for Actor. And though I love Kaluuya and Judah, I would kill to see Paul Raci win. There is a lot of love for him out there, but still. 

5--The Trial of the Chicago 7 will get hosed. It's a made-for-TV movie w/ not Aaron Sorkin's best screenplay but a lot of nice performances (and Langella should have been up, he plays sons-of-bitches well). 

6--Mank will win one, for Production Design. Save for the look of the film and Seyfried, for me it's a beautiful package with nothing inside. I've seen it twice, and I finally figured out the missing element is the element of passion for movies. But Hollywood does like movies about movies, though. 

7--I've buried the lead: women are going to win a shit ton of Oscars tonight. I still think Emerald Fennell will win Original Screenplay, and Chloe Zhao could win all four she is up for (though I think Sound of Metal will win Editing and Sound). That would be pretty damned cool!

8--So is Diane Warren going to finally win a goddamned Oscar tonight? Probably not. I would love for Leslie Odom, Jr. to win Supporting Actor, but he'll win here. And One Night in Miami got hosed, too. 

My last-minute gut check: 

Riz Ahmed for Actor

Day or Davis for Actess (yes, I'm waffling but not giving in)

Raci for Supporting Actor

Maria Bakalova for Supporting Actress (I would kill for this to happen!)

That's all I got. Here are my Predix, along w/ the upsets:

Best Picture: Nomadland

upset: The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Director: Chloe Zhao

upset: Emerald Fennell

Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman

upset: Riz Ahmed

Best Actress: Carey Mulligan

upset: Andra Day

Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya

upset: Paul Raci

Best Supporting Actress: Yuh-Jung Youn

upset: Maria Bakalova

Best Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman

upset: The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Adapted Screenplay: Nomadland

upset: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Best International Film: Another Round

upset: Quo Vadis, Aida?

Best Animated Feature: Soul

upset: Wolfwalkers

Best Song: Speak Now (One Night in Miami)

upset: Io Si (The Life Ahead)

Best Cinematography: Nomadland

upset: Mank

Best Editing: Sound of Metal

upset: Nomadland

Best Production Design: Mank

upset: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Best Costume Design: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

upset: Emma

Best Sound: Sound of Metal

upset: Soul

Best Visual Effects: Tenet

upset: The Midnight Sky

Best Makeup: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

upset: Hillbilly Elegy

Best Documentary: My Octopus Teacher

upset: Crip Camp

Best Documentary Short: A Concerto is a Conversation

upset: Colette

Best Animated Short: If Anything Happens, I Love You

upset: Opera

Best Live-Action Short: Two Distant Strangers

upset: The Letter Room

Wins

Nomadland                            4     

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom    3

Promising Young Woman.    2

Sound of Metal                     2

Soul                                      2

Mank                                    1

Judah/Black Messiah           1

Minari                                   1

Running Time: 3 hours 26 minutes

As usual, Win totals may be separate from other predictions.

And I finally made the Awards Daily Big Bad Predictions Chart! Something good finally came out of the pandemic!

That's all, folks. Them's my Predix, and I'm standing by them. And this years show should be interesting, especially with Soderbergh at the helm. It'll be as trippy as this past year has been. 

And I wish Chadwick Boseman was here to experience this. 

The Maven will be venting the annual rite of passage on the socials (Facebook and @Franster23 on Twitter), so follow along or block me until Tuesday. And no Oscar pool again this year, everybody's broke. 

Happy Oscar Sunday, y'all! And of course, Shalom!

Sisters of Mercy: The Maven's Fearless (and Probably Foolish) Oscar Nominations Predix 2021

Ok, I jinxed it last year. After being quite pleased with the shortened Oscar season and a nice crop of films and wins, we've wound up right back where we've started from. I never imagined doing Oscar prognostication in shorts and the actual ceremony abutting the NBA playoffs. So that damned bug has set us back to Johnny Carson days, when in April you watch the winners revealed and say, That came out last year? Think if last season hadn't been pushed up due to the still-yet-to-be-played Olympic Games. 

Everything is upside down. Eligibility went far past December, and more movies went straight to streaming. I imagine more folks in the general population and Academy members alike probably watched more than in years past. Et tu, Spielberg? 

 The timetable for awards season is askew, making for a lot of second-guessing with these noms. It's hard to tell what's been hot or not, and it feels like the ballots were only out for about three days. So anything could happen this go-round, happily. Even #FilmTwitter has been calmer than usual, but I bet all hell breaks loose after tomorrow morning. This time it'll be a nice distration from the pandemic and politics. But this is one time I've been overthinking everything in trying to pull these predix together. It doesn't help that college hoops is compounding this, as well as Daylight Savings Time. Talk about Madness! 

 Here are some elements I'm still puzzling out: 

 1-There are some films I think have lost quite a bit of steam in the major categories, including Mank, Da 5 Bloods, and The Father, and more for me in the acting categories than anywhere. I'm not convinced Gary Oldman nor Amanda Seyfried make the cut now, or even David Fincher for Director, though the Academy loves movies about movies, so there's that. I think it will get a slew of technical nods, though. I'm afraid Bloods could be shut out, and The Father feels like it peaked too early. 

 2-The one category I've agonized over is Supporting Actress. It's a bloodbath. Talk about peaking early, is it possible Glenn Close misses? She's the best element of Hillbilly Elegy (and people who know me know my problems w/ the book and Vance, but I do think the movie is better and, after a very uneven first third, once it gets its footing it's not bad), but, again, it feels like it came out two years ago. I think at this point Jodie Foster gets Seyfried's spot--I think. I even want to change my picks again just writing this. Does Coleman miss? Youn? 

 3-Minari will do well, but not sure about the acting categories. It didn't seem to be prominent as the ballots were out there to me. But then to say any films right now in this season are on the downturn is a bit of a non-starter. 

 4-I'm pulling for all things Promising Young Woman, Nomadland, and One Night in Miami, my three favorites of the year. And we may have, hopefully, three Director nominees who are women, which would be pretty damn cool. And in wrestling with this category, I orginally thought Lee Isaac Chung would be the odd-man out, but, and it kills me to say this, I think Emerald Fennell may be the one to not make the cut. I hope I'm wrong. 

 5-Speaking of Nomadland, I love the film is getting a lot of love, but one of the sick ironies is that for possibly the role of her career (next to Fargo), Frances McDormand doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of winning, though the film will probably do quite well with noms and wins. Her win for Three Billboards for #2 was premature. Hers and especially Carey Mulligan's are the performances of the year for me. 

 6-For awhile I thought Viola Davis would her second statue. Also ain't happening. I'll go to my grave saying she should have won for The Help.

7-I hope Regina King makes the Director's cut. For a film that could have taken the easy way out with the conceit, it's markedly unsentimental and even more moving as a result. Everybody loves King, bias aside I think she makes the cut. I just still not sure who doesn't from the five DGA nominees. 

8-Mark Rylance could be the one nobody sees coming. Acting is stacked in The Trial of the Chicago 7, and I hope the film does well across the board (and I thought Sorkin may be the Directing fall guy, but the film is so seamless I think not). Someone suggested three Supporting Actor noms from the film (if you include Frank Langella). Not sure that will happen. Same to be said for Zendaya. She's hot at the moment, but nobody remembers Malcolm and Marie (that was on in the 70's, right?). 

9-I will say if Jared Leto makes the cut I'll lose my shit. I wanted The Little Things to be good, and even Malik and Washington couldn't save it. John Lee Hancock is usually decent, but he wrote himself into a corner. Sorry, but Leto's finger mannerisms that would make Bill Nighy cringe ain't gonna cut it. 

10-I hope The Mauritanian does well. I think Foster's in there at least, but don't be surprised if Tahar Rahim makes the cut. 

11-Think Borat could pull a double for Sacha Baron Cohen? I sure as hell hope Maria Bakalova squeezes in! 

 Enough already. I'm wiped out, by the Covad (as my neighbor's 55-year-old son calls it), lockdown, not being able to barhop, chasing neighborhood bunnies, and dumbasses. As usual, I don't do the docs, shorts, foreign, or music this go-round, but my nomination totals do include music. I have to stop changing my picks, I got nothing else: 

Best Picture 

Nomadland 

The Trial of the Chicago 7 

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom 

Minari 

Promising Young Woman 

One Night in Miami 

Mank 

Sound of Metal 

Judas and the Black. Messiah

 --- 

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm 

Best Director 

Chloe Zhao 

Aaron Sorkin 

Lee Isaac Chung 

Regina King 

David Fincher 

--- 

Emerald Fennell 

Spike Lee 

Shaka King 

Best Actor 

Chadwick Boseman 

Riz Ahmed 

Anthony Hopkins 

Steve Yeun 

Tahar Rahim 

--- 

Delroy Lindo 

Gary Oldman 

Sacha Baron Cohen 

Best Actress 

Carey Mulligan 

Viola Davis 

Frances McDormand 

Vanessa Kirby 

Andra Day 

--- 

Zendaya 

Sophia Loren 

Amy Adams 

Best Supporting Actor 

Daniel Kaluuya 

Leslie Odom, Jr. 

Sacha Baron Cohen 

Paul Raci 

Mark Rylance 

--- 

Alan Kim 

Frank Langella 

Chadwick Boseman 

Best Supporting Actress 

Jodie Foster 

Maria Bakalova 

Glenn Close 

Olivia Coleman 

Yuh-Jung Youn 

--- 

Amanda Seyfried 

Ellen Burstyn 

Helena Zengel 

Best Original Screenplay 

Promising Young Woman 

The Trial of the Chicago 7 

Minari 

Mank 

Judas and the Black Messiah 

--- 

Sound of Metal 

Soul 

Da 5 Bloods 

Best Adapted Screenplay 

Nomadland 

One Night in Miami 

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom 

The Father 

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm 

--- 

The Mauritanian 

News of the World 

The White Tiger 

Best Cinematography 

Nomadland 

Mank 

News of the World 

The Trial of the Chicago 7 

Judas and the Black Messiah 

--- 

Tenet 

Cherry 

Da 5 Bloods 

Best Editing 

The Trial of the Chicago 7 

Nomadland 

Sound of Metal 

Promising Young Woman 

One Night in Miami 

--- 

Minari 

 Mank 

The Father 

Best Production Design 

Mank 

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom 

News of the World 

The Trial of the Chicago 7 

Tenet 

--- 

Mulan 

The Midnight Sky 

Emma 

Best Costume Design 

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom 

Mank  

Emma 

News of the World 

Promising Young Woman --- 

Mulan 

The Trial of the Chicago 7 

One Night in Miami 

Best Sound 

Sound of Metal 

Soul 

News of the World 

The Trial of the Chicago 7 

Greyhound 

--- 

Tenet 

Mank 

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom 

Best Visual Effects 

Tenet 

The Midnight Sky 

Mulan 

Welcome to Chechyna 

Mank 

--- 

The One and Only Ivan 

Birds of Prey 

Soul 

Best Makeup 

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom 

Hillbilly Elegy 

Mank 

Birds of Prey 

Pinocchio 

--- 

Emma 

Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey 

The Little Things 

Nominations 

The Trial of the Chicago 7 10 

Mank 9 

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom 8 

Sound of Metal 7 

Nomadland 7 

Minari 6 

One Night in Miami 6 

Promising Young Woman 5 

News of the World 5

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm 3 

Them's my predix, and I'm sticking to them. The usual surprises and ommissions will happen, and in this pandemic year they could be rampant. The cruelty come 8:30am in the morning on top of the time change is not lost on me, and I blame that for any misfires here. 

My work is done here til April 25th, yikes! Follow me on the socials for the usual bitchfest and kvetching.  

Happy Oscar Nominations Day, y'all! And, of course, Shalom and Season's Screenings!

Locked and Loaded: The Maven's Fearless (and Most Definitely Foolish) Oscar Predix 2020

Let me start by saying I've loved this Oscar season. I can't remember the last time that the entire crop of nominees were solid overall. No Slumdogs, No King's Speeches, (I still love you, Colin), no Artists, no clunkers. Some films are better than others, and some will be remembered 20 years from now (Parasite, Once Upon a Time...In Hollywood, Pitt's and Zellweger's performances). The nominees across the strata of categories this season has been one big happy family, and it's pretty damn cool, especially in the current climate. 

But as I previously mentioned, I like the shortened season.Yes, #FilmTwitter played the usual "what if" games and dug too deep into the minutiae, but what if we had another month? I would lose my mind even more so than I am now. But on Oscar Eve, even the best pundits out there (I see you, Sasha Stone and Brian Perry) are second-guessing their picks. That gets your attention! Part of this is the weird nadir between when the ballots are due and the ceremony itself, where there's mostly silence until the night before. But this go-round it's because many of the categories are an embarrassment of riches filmwise, and it's hard to figure out any patterns of how people voted. Trying to figure this out is like trying to develop a vaccine for the Coronavirus. 

I love the blind ballots, when during the nadir Academy members spill the beans on what they love, how they voted, and especially what they don't like. To that point, votes in various categories are somewhat consistent, but many are very scattered. I know some Academy members here, and they fall into this as well. But we cannot go by this. Funny how we forget that the members don't meet as a group to vote. If you polled "FilmTwitter and put out all the blind ballots you wanted, it still won't tell you anything. In 2016, folks went nuts w/ the polling, and look at what we wound up with in the White House. 

I think this will definitely be a year of spreading the wealth, where most of the films will win something. The one film that will be hosed is The Irishman. I've studied Scorsese's work for almost 40 years, and this is far from his best effort. I do think a lot of folks checked out due to the length, this, despite being on Netflix. And I love me some Thelma Schoonmaker, but even she couldn't handle this one. I like the film, but it needed to be tightened up. Now watch her win for Editing. 

So here is the twisted irony of this year's crop: the four acting categories are complete locks (and whoever said Dern is the biggest lock of the four is a bit amiss; if there is an upset w/ any of the four, it's Supporting Actress, possibly Johansson), but all the other categories are up for grabs, even down to Documentary Feature. It and Song are bloodbaths, and the pundits have made me scramble to see if I want to change my picks. I going to stay stat, because I don't get the feeling there will be a great wave in the technical categories. 

However, if Parasite wins Production Design (that house, man!) and especially Editing, as my dad used to say, Katie bar the door. I have heard too many members fawning over the film, especially the actor's branch, and I don't know if I buy that a lot of members didn't watch it because of subtitles. You have to admit, this year is a bit of a wild card because of the new Academy members. Plus, some members didn't vote in all categories. 

And to this point, I want to say that I don't understand why folks keep picking on Renee Zellweger. If it's not her accent, it's something else. I kept up w/ the production of Judy from the beginning, and I figured she would be good. But keep in mind that what's making for a complete sweep and probably the Oscar tomorrow for Zellweger are the scenes toward the end of the film that have not been show outside of it, not unlike the whipping scene that nabbed the Oscar for Lupita Nyong'o. But something snapped loose in her, like it did for Robert Duvall in The Apostle, Daniel Day-Lewis in There Will Be Blood, and Gena Rowlands in A Woman Under the Influence. She's always been terrific even in shitty films (a mark of a great actor, look at Rod Steiger, for Christ's sake), she's quirky as hell and embraces it, and rolls with the flow. This makes for great acting, and she's flat-out fucking brilliant here. She's had the time of her life and has been living out loud this awards season, and she deserves all of this. 

Same goes for Brad Pitt, sans the quirkiness. His is also a performance for the ages. He reminds me so much of early-70's Robert Redford. I feel like he could have just walked onto the set of Jeremiah Johnson and nailed it. He's the cat's ass. 

But what to do w/ Parasite and 1917? I want Bong Joon Ho to win Director. I actually want him and the film to win as many as possible, (a massive #BongHit, right, Matt Neglia?),  but I think Picture and Director split, w/ Sam Mendes winning Director. If this were flipped, I would be cool w/ that, too. These two films will probably win the most trophies, but it won't be a high tally. I'm thinking Parasite and 1917 will both win four. But Bong has been a blast, and he and Taika Waititi have been the Laurel and Hardy of the awards season. Their films are both taking home the Screenplay Oscars. 

Y'all realize that Quentin Tarantino may go home empty-handed for possibly his best film (next to Jackie Brown and Pulp Fiction)? Hate this! And Margot Robbie should have been up for this, not Bombshell.

And now that Roger Deakins is going to win his second Oscar, after decades of not winning anything: When are Wes Anderson (he has a new film in 2020) and Diane Warren going to win a goddamned Oscar? 

And, for the record, the wrong person won the Oscar for Walk the Line. That was Joaquin Phoenix's film. But he'll win here to make up for it. And it may only be one of two Oscars Joker wins.

I got nothing else. About three high-gravity beers in so as to stop second-guessing my picks, here's how I think the awards will go:

Picture: Parasite
upset: 1917

Director: Sam Mendes
upset: Bong Joon Ho

Actor: Joaquin Phoenix
upset: Adam Driver

Actress: Renee Zellweger
upset: Charlize Theron

Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt
upset: Joe Pesci

Supporting Actress: Laura Dern
upset: Scarlett Johansson

Original Screenplay: Parasite
upset: Once Upon a Time...In Hollywood

Adapted Screenplay: Jojo Rabbit
upset: Little Women

Foreign-Language Film: Parasite
upset: Pain and Glory

Animated Feature: Toy Story 4
upset: Klaus

Original Song: "Stand Up"
upset: "I'm Gonna Love Me Again"

Score: Joker
upset: Marriage Story

Cinematography: 1917
upset: Once Upon a Time...In Hollywood

Editing: Parasite
upset: Ford vs. Ferrari

Production Design: Once Upon a Time...In Hollywood
upset: Parasite (that house!)

Costume Design: Little Women
upset: Once Upon a Time...In Hollywood

Sound Editing: Ford vs. Ferrari
upset: 1917

Sound Mixing: 1917
upset: Ford vs. Ferrari

Visual Effects: 1917
upset: Avengers: Endgame

Makeup: Judy
upset: Bombshell

Documentary Feature: American Factory
upset: For Sama

Documentary Short: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone
upset: St Louis Superman

Animated Short: Hair Love
upset: Kitbull

Live-Action Short: Brotherhood
upset: Saria 

Wins

1917           5

Parasite.     4

Once Upon a Time    3

Joker          2

Judy           2

Ford vs. Ferrari 2

Marriage Story 1

Little Women    1

Jojo Rabbit       1

Running Time: 3 Hours 44 Minutes

As usual, the Wins totals are separate from the other predictions. 

That's it. Them's my predix, and (I think) I'm sticking to them. Per usual, The Maven will be venting the annual rite of passage on the socials (Facebook and @Franster23 on Twitter), so follow along for the ride or mute me until Tuesday. Let me know your thoughts. Again, no Oscar pool this year, so blame Trump.

I hope the show is as much of a blast as this season has been! 

Happy Oscar Sunday, y'all. And, of course, Shalom!

I Like Mine Scrambled! The Maven's Fearless (and Probably Foolish) Oscar Nomination Predix 2020

For decades I complained about the long Oscar slog of a season, that if the films are for the calendar year, then the Awards should be in February at the latest. Remember going back to the 80's when the Awards would be in the middle of April? 

Well, I finally got my wish in spades. The entire awards-season schedule has been upended by the Olympics, to the point that all the voting for the various guilds are overlapping in weird ways. The Globes are two days before Oscar ballots are due, then the DGA and SAG are piled on top of each other. I wanted a shorten season, but not this short. 

While #FilmTwitter and pundits have obsessed for months (longer than this season, I might add) about what actor may get that fifth slot or what picture can be nominated without an actor being up (and I'm guilty of this as well, just not before October), the timetable is the one element that I've not heard anyone consider at great length. And I do think this will play a role in tomorrow nominations, be it for who surprises by being in or being out. There's not been much time to digest all the noms across the board and to try to squeeze in late releases; I've watch more films the past two weeks than I have in the past six months. (And by the way, Sasha Stone is usually the wisest sage w/ these things, so when she writes, you better bloody listen). 

And this year's crop across the board is pretty solid. I don't feel any nominees will be for career awards (Laura Dern comes close, but she's equally terrific in Marriage Story and Little Women), and the voters I know say they've enjoyed the bulk of the films. 

I'm not sure I have much to add to the conversation until we see the noms tomorrow. Plus, I'm just as preoccupied with the Clemson/LSU game tomorrow night. The Maven's two High Holy Days merging into a single day? Madness! But I do have a few observations:

1--I'll be rooting for all things Once Upon a Time...In Hollywood, Parasite, Dolemite is My Name, 1917, and Judy (not a great movie, but then, to bust up the ongoing argument about biopics, the movie is the performance, so if it fails, the movie follows suit. But Zellweger is the cat's ass and has appeared everywhere except the opening of a new mall in Santa Monica). 

2--I still don't know what the Academy is going to do w/ Richard Jewell and Little Women. The screenplay for Jewell has more holes than St. Charles in New Orleans, but Paul Walker Hauser's performance is the most underrated this season (Kathy Bates is cool, but it's not her movie), and he could very well surprise, and I hope so. In the case of Little Women, I think folks are still bursting at the seams to honor Greta Gerwig in some way, but I'm not sure this is the film to serve that purpose. I like the film, but it ain't Lady Bird (not entirely a fair comparison, but life's not fair). So does this mean Saoirse Ronan gets hosed in the fallout? Florence Pugh has been hot of late at the right time, so she, I think, gets that fifth supporting slot over Bates. 

3--And to that end, what to do with Marriage Story. I dig this film, but it's Driver's film, and though I really would like to see him take Actor, it's Joaquin Phoenix's to lose. I still think The Squid and The Whale is better, and I do see this as an offshoot of that film. But I think the one nomination that nobody may see coming would be Alan Alda. He's every bit as good as the other principle players. 

4--But, like Marriage Story, The Irishman started out white-hot during the season and now it's waning a bit. Again, I like the film, it could have been tightened a bit, but it's not Scorsese's best. It'll get a lot of noms, but I think DeNiro misses. And I've not considered if there will be any backlash due to Marty's Marvel comments. Doubt it. 

5--Speaking of backlash, I also wonder if the Netflix Effect will kick in, or if this will be the year that Hollywood begins to accept the paradigm shift of how we watch movies now. The lack of access to better films is an endless argument, and movies are better on a big screen, at least when someone isn't behind you snorting popcorn, so why not Netflix? And for the record, Marty wasn't wrong in his stance about the Marvel films sucking the air out of theatrical distribution (don't @ me, you know I'm right). 

6--I said for years if Quentin Tarantino ever grew up that he would make a great movie, and he did with Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood. I've always like QT (and I still say Jackie Brown is, with this and Pulp Fiction, his best film) but I wouldn't wish Hateful Eight on my worst enemy. This is not unlike when Roman Polanski made The Ninth Gate, when I said he shouldn't make another movie, but then makes The Pianist. 

7--I'm sure we'll hear more about the diversity issue. This year was an embarrassment of riches, so if women and minorities don't get a lot of nominations, I don't think it's due to this issue. It's just a crowded year. And the BAFTA's opening an investigation into voting? Bitch, please! I don't think the Russians had anything to do with this! Seriously, there's a paradigm shift here as well, it's just a bit more gradual. And it has nothing to do with voting, it has to do with providing more opportunities to produce more diverse works.

8--Y'all realize that Roger Deakins will go from not winning an Oscar for decades, and now he'll make quick work of the Academy and win a second one for 1917, a very late entry into the race. The film will do quite well, and it should. It's stunning. 

9--You also realize that Cynthia Erivo will still be nominated if she misses for Actress, for Song. 

10--Parasite is my favorite film of the year (along with Hollywood), and it will do well across the board. Will it win Picture? I don't know, too early. Director? I'm thinking so. It better be up for Production Design, because that house is as important to the film as the actors. That house is an actor!

11--I do think the nominees for Director will be stat from the DGA. I agree with Brian Perry/@RoadToOscar that Gerwig will miss here and may win Adapted Screenplay, I don't think Noah Baumbach makes it, and Todd Phillips is the wild card, despite Joker probably getting several other nominations. 

12--Finally, Joker, the most divisive film on the slate. This one has caused a lot of ink to be spilled and split folks down the middle. There are shots in this film (along with the wide shot of the family walking through the city during the flood in Parasite) that are gorgeous and made me shift away from television back to movies. I think the ending is a cheap shot, though, but that doesn't take away from Joaquin Phoenix's performance. I still think the wrong actor won for Walk the Line, and he probably should have won (along with the late Philip Seymour Hoffman) for The Master, but this will make up for that. 

Enough already. As usual, I don't do the music, docs, shorts, foreign, or animated this round, and my nomination totals will account for the music. Thus, here are my prefix, with three alternates, save for Picture, Visual Effects, and Makeup, for each category. Here's where I think things are headed come 8:18 in the morning (and why the weird time, for fuck's sake?): 

Best Picture
The Irishman
1917
Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Parasite
Joker
Jojo Rabbit
Marriage Story
Little Women
Ford vs. Ferrari
---
Knives Out

Best Director
Quentin Tarantino
Bong Joon Ho
Sam Mendes
Martin Scorsese
Taika Waititi
---
Pedro Almodovar
Greta Gerwig
Todd Phillips

Best Actor
Joaquin Phoenix
Adam Driver
Leonardo DiCaprio
Taron Egerton
Eddie Murphy
---
Paul Walker Hauser
Antonio Banderas
Christian Bale

Best Actress
Renee Zellweger
Charlize Theron
Scarlett Johansson
Cyntha Erivo
Saoirse Ronan
---
Awkwafina
Lupita Nyong'o
Alfre Woodard

Best Supporting Actor
Brad Pitt
Al Pacino
Tom Hanks
Joe Pesci
Song Sang Ho
---
Alan Alda
Anthony Hopkins
Jamie Foxx

Best Supporting Actress
Laura Dern
Jennifer Lopez
Margo Robbie
Scarlett Johansson 
Florence Pugh
---
Kathy Bates
Zhao Shuzhen
Annette Bening

Best Original Screenplay
Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Marriage Story
Parasite
Booksmart
Dolemite is My Name
---
Pain and Glory
The Farewell
Knives Out

Best Adapted Screenplay
Little Women
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
The Two Popes
---
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Richard Jewell
Just Mercy

Best Cinematography
1917
Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Joker
The Irishman
Ford vs. Ferrari
---
Parasite
The Lighthouse
Little Women

Best Editing
The Irishman
Parasite
Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Ford vs. Ferrari
Joker
---
Marriage Story
1917
Jojo Rabbit

Best Production Design
Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Parasite
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
1917
---
Little Women
Joker
Ford vs. Ferrari

Best Costume Design
Little Women
Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Rocketman
Dolemite is My Name
Judy
---
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Downton Abbey

Best Sound Editing
1917
Ford vs. Ferrari
Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Rocketman
---
Joker
Ad Astra
Avengers: End Game

Best Sound Mixing
1917
Ford vs. Ferrari
Rocketman
Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood 
Ad Astra
---
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Avengers: End Game
Joker

Best Visual Effects
Avengers: End Game
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
The Lion King
The Irishman
1917
---
Atila: Battle Angel

Best Makeup
Bombshell
Joker
Judy
Rocketman
Dolemite is My Name
---
Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood

Nominations

Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood     11

The Irishman                                     10

Joker                                                  9

1917                                                   8

Marriage Story                                   7

Parasite                                             7

Ford vs. Ferrari                                  6

Little Women                                      6

Jojo Rabbit                                         6

Them's my predix, and I'm sticking to them. There will be surprises and omissions, how many I know not. The Maven has a busy day ahead, so she'll need a jolt along w/ the coffee. 

My work is done here until February 9th (too damned early). Follow me on the socials for continuous bitching and analysis. 

So Happy Oscar Nominations Day, y'all! And of course, Shalom and Seasons Screenings!

The Irishman versus Ironman: How Martin Scorsese Nearly Upended The Marvel Universe

In an interview in Empire, a British film magazine, in October 2019 while promoting his latest film The Irishman, Director Martin Scorsese was asked about Marvel movies, and he said, “I don’t see them. I tried, you know? But that’s not cinema. Honestly, the closest I can think of them, as well made as they are, with actors doing the best they can under the circumstances, is theme parks.” Needless to say, Film Twitter lost its mind, with Josh Whedon and Jon Favreau to pundits to Marvel fans chiming in. The crux of the controversy is that Scorsese films and Marvel films speak two very different cinematic languages for two different cinematic experiences, in terms of the genres they represent and how our fragmented, technology-driven, short-attention-span society views movies, considering what constitutes “cinema” now. 

What many of those criticizing Scorsese don’t realize is that he’s been around the block a few times, having started his career well before the core Marvel audience was born. He’s made films since the late 1960’s, finally won an Oscar for Best Director for The Departed, and Raging Bull has consistently shown up in Top 10 lists of the best films of all-time; that film changed the way I watch movies because he told a story in a way I had never seen before. But when you think of a Scorsese film, you don’t think of a blockbuster. His films are passionate and about characters’ lives, as are Marvel films. Save for The Wolf of Wall Street, which is his largest-grossing movie, and a handful of others, you’re not going to see the box-office take for the weekend and see a Scorsese film on it. 

The noise against Scorsese became so loud that he wrote an op-ed in The New York Times to clarify his original comments. In it, Scorsese indicates that at the core the issue is risk. But this is nothing new. Hollywood has always been about putting butts in seats, and this has gone on for decades. Fifty years ago, after Easy Rider, made on a tiny budget, was released and became a hit, every major studio in town broke the bank trying to make their own biker film (remember C.C. and Company, when the studio tried to cash-in on Joe Namath’s Super Bowl success?). 

But there have been two major paradigm shifts for the films themselves and how we watch them. The first happened with The Big Bang of Blockbusters, when in 1975 Steven Spielberg made Jaws and it became a massive hit like nothing the industry had seen before. Then in 1977 George Lucas released Star Wars, creating the first film franchise that echoes to this day, and, hence Marvel movies becoming the cash cow of the current era. But it was after this that the money of movies seeped into the mainstream media, when you would get the box-office results for the weekend on Monday mornings. Director Robert Altman, who battled his own Hollywood demons trying to get his films made, said, “How can I compete with a mechanical shark and two robots?”

     The second paradigm shift occurred with the advent and progression of technology changing the way we consume movies. And Scorsese’s quip about theme parks is not a criticism against the Marvel movies themselves, but rather about how we watch movies now. He reveres the “cinematic experience” (as do I) of going into a theater and letting the film happen, and now because of technology, the way most watch movies are pretty fractured. You could be in a café and the person next to you is watching a movie, or you’re on the bus and someone is watching a movie on a smartphone. He’s not wrong. 

     One would think that with technology and Netflix at our fingertips that we would have better access to the movies, big or small, blockbusters or indies, we want to see, but what Scorsese is trying to point out is that, paradoxically, despite the technology,we still have a lack of access to smaller films. In other words, Marvel movies are sucking the air out of the theater. So Guardians of the Galaxy may be on four screens, and the only way a theater may get a small film such as 12 Years a Slave is to agree to take it as part of the package and play it for a week. So that film may play for a week but only at 9:45. 

      Scorsese has kvetched about the lava flows of blockbusters flooding the theaters, limiting access and distribution, but he is not immune to his own flows. Early in his career, his films were bloody and gritty, but more recently he became a bit giddy as well with technology. Remember when after he released Hugo, which was filmed in 3D, Scorsese claimed he would make every film thereafter in 3D? Didn’t happen. Could you imagine The Wolf of Wall Street in 3D? 

     Scorsese’s latest film The Irishman, is being release on Netflix after it plays for a few weeks in theaters to qualify for Oscars. And he’s playing the paradigm game because Netflix funded the film. But he also dipped his toe in the CGI waters because he employs this technology to age the characters throughout the film. The story arc is over several decades, and he claims he wanted to try this technology over extensive makeup to be “purely experimental.” He’s not a luddite, but he wants his stories to remain, at the core, about human connections. 

     So the cinematic experience as we once knew it is practically gone. It used to be an event, to go see something you’ve not seen before, or to have fun like, well, at a theme park. But I don’t want to pay to see a movie in which folks act like they are in their living rooms or snorting popcorn. In my eyes, there used to be collective experience of seeing a movie, then talking about it afterward. I’ve had many an argument after movies, and I miss that. Sure, we can discuss them, but now films can be downloaded and viewed at anytime, and the main way to have discussion is through social media. Again, fragmented not collective. 

     And the kicker to the Scorsese controversy? He was going to produce Joker, but when Netflix came through with financing for The Irishman, he had to leave the project. That’s Hollywood!

Eighteen Years

On September 11th, it was one week hence of my moving back to the area from Clemson. That morning, I remember I had a dream where I was in the back of an empty tractor trailer, and two of my former Clemson students were in there. We felt something hit the truck, and the student said he thought we had been hit. 

I then woke up around 8:50 and turned on The Today Show, just after the first plane hit the North Tower. Like everyone, I thought it was an accident and wondering why a plane would veer off-course over Manhattan. Then the second plane hit. My first thought was, How are they going to get those planes out of there? And the people? 

I watched, confused like most at that point. Then the plane hit the Pentagon. Every morning I would go down to the bodega at the end of my street for coffee, and went down right after this happened. I knew the manager of the store, and I remember telling her what happened; I felt like I needed to tell someone what happened. I was trying to make sense of the chaos. 

After I got my coffee, then Flight 93 went down. I was baffled; this was a time when terrorism wasn't the immediate first thought. Then a few minutes later the North Tower collaped. I was stunned, unnerved at how fast it and the South Tower came down. 

I distinctly remember on CNN and on other news coverage people being interviewed kept saying, "It's like something out of a movie." Everyone was trying to make sense out of the chaos. I've never shaken that.

The day was surreal overall. Most channels, from the Home Shopping. Network to MTV, went off-air, the sole focus on the networks and the news channels. Imagine this happening with social media now. 

The next day was not much different. But I wanted to see the Jay and Silent Bob movie, so I went to theater. Most of north Johnson City was quieter than normal, the theater empty. The movie was a waste (save for Chris Rock), two hours I wouldn't get back. As I was leaving I looked at the marquee and saw the list of films playing, and at the bottom I saw, "God Bless America." I thought, What movie is that? Then it hit me. Patriotism began blossoming. But when the flags went up after about four days, the politics kicked in. 

Of all the writings and photos around that time, of people jumping and the endless loop of the planes crashing into the Towers, one image got to me. I picked up the book This is New York, a big photography book chronically every aspect of that day, from screen shots of the television networks off-air and photos from newsrooms to police and fire at work. Then I happened across of photo of a woman's severed leg, with painted toenails and a stiletto, presuming she was one of the jumpers. I thought, Did she know getting dressed and going out that...