Random Oscar Thoughts, Bored Shitless...

Oscar Sunday Day is my least favorite time in this season. The analysis of categories is at a fever pitch and the red carpet is just grotesque, a meat market. Why doesn't anyone talk about objectification w/ this?

I'm ready for the show and the wins, hopefully many I'm pulling for. But a last minute gut feeling is that Bradley Cooper may win. It may not be likely, and I cooled on this idea awhile back, but just hit me this morning.

The other observation: Patricia Arquette has man-hands. Watch when she grabs her Oscar, you'll see...

On with the show...

BIrdman and Boyhood and Budapest, Oh My! The MS Maven's Fearless Predix 2015

Birdman or Boyhood? Inarritu or Linklater? The Maven is worn out, for this is the weird nadir when everyone second guesses himself or herself between when the ballots are due and the ceremony. And I, like many, have wrestled w/ Picture, Director, and Actor. But you have to remember, many Academy members don't geek out like some of us, voting for friends, studios, or by knee-jerk.

That said, here are a few observations before my predix:

1--I said before the SAGs that Arquette could possibly be Boyhood's only Oscar. It's a gut feeling I've had, and some folks have indicated they see the film as "trickery." I wouldn't go that far, but I can see where they are coming from. I watched the film again last night, and I like it immensely the way I like most of Linklater's films, which is my point. Translated, how do you reward consistency? I've always said the litmus test for a Best Picture winner is, will it be remembered 20 years from now? The one film I think will be--The Grand Budapest Hotel--may be the one, but has no chance in hell of winning BP.

2--Which leads to Birdman, which is quite memorable and I think, more than Boyhood, will stand the test of time and hold up over the years. Most films about the theater and acting don't win, which makes this film a bit of an anomaly. And Inarritu has been a consistent director as well (and am I the only person who still likes/defends Babel?). And keep this in mind: between both films, if BP and Director split, both Linklater and Inarritu win Oscars.

3--Actor. Like many, I thought Michael Keaton was a slam-dunk. Then I saw The Theory of Everything. I didn't think much going in, expecting a by-the-numbers biopic (which, by the way The Imitation Game is; save for Benedict Cumberbatch, Knightly, and the screenplay, the film's last half hour is its saving grace. Morten Tyldum has no business being up for Director and will be working an In and Out Burger in no time. Harvey's pushed a bit hard w/ this one, but it will win Adapted Screenplay). I didn't expect to be moved. There is an intangible quality that Eddie Redmayne brings to the role, a twinkle in his eye showing a mind always at work when his body isn't. I think Bradley Cooper is a dead-ringer for Chris Kyle and is soulful in his performance, staying above the political fray to be true to Kyle's spirit. And goddamn I want to see Keaton win, because his performance is every bit as nuanced as Redmayne's, albeit from an entirely different angle. But I have to tip the scales to Redmayne. It's simply a beautifully nuanced performance that isn't predictable in the least. But here's the question I've been left with: How can Birdman win BP and Director and Keaton not win Actor when it's an actor's film? I won't be upset w/ either winning.

4--I hope my other gut feeling does not occur, that The Grand Budapest Hotel will win several Oscars (four by my count), but Anderson loses Original Screenplay I hope I'm wrong. Maybe this is where Linklater gets his Oscar but doubtful. I want Anderson to finally win an Oscar.

5--I kept thinking there would be a BP/Director split but I'm thinking not at this point. If it splits anyway, I think Boyhood for BP and Inarritu for Director, not vice versa.

6--I hope there is one major surprise, but I'm not going to try to guess this one. I will say this: If Boyhood wins Editing, it probably wins BP. If Whiplash wins it (which I'm predicting), lookout!

I'm as guilty as all the other blowhards overdoing it at this point. I have nothing left except my Predix. The shit show (thanks Craig Kennedy for this term, I also knicknamed one of my former students this, and she loves the moniker!) is 24 hours away, so with no further ado, here's mine (my picks and the upsets):

Best Picture: Birdman
upset: Boyhood

Best Director: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu
upset: Richard Linklater

Best Actor: Eddie Redmayne
upset: Michael Keaton

Best Actress: Julianne Moore
upset: Rosamund Pike

Best Supporting Actor: J K Simmons
upset: Edward Norton

Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette
upset: Emma Stone

Best Original Screenplay: The Grand Budapest Hotel
upset: Birdman

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Imitation Game
upset: American Sniper

Best Animated Feature: Big Hero 6
upset: How to Train Your Dragon 2

Best Foreign-Language Film: Ida
upset: Leviathan

Best Score: The Theory of Everything
upset: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Song: "Glory"
upset: "I'm Not Gonna Miss You"

Best Cinematography: Birdman
upset: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Editing: Whiplash
upset: American Sniper

Best Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
upset: Into the Woods

Best Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
upset: Into the Woods

Best Sound Editing: American Sniper
upset: Birdman

Best Sound Mixing: Whiplash
upset: American Sniper

Best Visual Effects: Interstellar
upset: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Best Makeup: The Grand Budapest Hotel
upset: Foxcatcher

Best Documentary Feature: Citizenfour
upset: Virunga

Best Documentary Short Subject: Crisis Hotline
upset: Joanna

Best Live-Action Short: The Phone Call
upset: Boogaloo and Graham

Best Animated Short: Feast
upset: The Dam Keeper

The Wins

(Note: Win totals may not line up w/ my Predix)

 

The Grand Budapest Hotel    4

Birdman                                 3

Whiplash                                3
The Theory of Everything       2
Boyhood                                 1
The Imitation Game               1 

Running Time: 3 hours, 32 minutes

As usual, I'll be performing my annual rite of passage of posting and Tweeting on Facebook and Twitter. And once again, I didn't do an office pool because I need to save my money to restock more beer after tomorrow night.

 

Happy Oscar Sunday, y'all. And, of course, shalom...



 

Oscar Madness 2014 (Where's Your Film?), or Seven Ways to Oscar Sunday

We are 11 days out from The Main Event (anyone remember that film?), and the saga that is As the Oscar Turns has seen some seismic shifts as of late. These are just some random thoughts I have at this state in the Oscar race, and they are just that--thoughts. My predix will come in nine days, but these are just some matters to consider:

1--The love for Boyhood has faded faster than a Valentine's date at Waffle House, while Birdman has racked up the major guild awards in dramatic fashion. But in winning the trifecta of SAG, the PGA, and DGA, does this mean the film is a slam-dunk to win Picture and Director? I don't think so, and I've read what's out there in the Twitterverse, blogs, and beyond to try to put my finger on where this surge began, because most films about actors don't win Oscars, especially Picture or Director. Perhaps it's because voters actually watched the screeners, precisely the reason Selma didn't get more nominations (though I think the film until its final half hour is uneven). Boyhood came out on video last month, but not sure that's helped here.

Some I've talked to see Boyhood as a movie of trickery, what w/ the filming over a dozen years. It's a solid film, and I still don't understand why no love for Eller Coltrane, the heart of the film. It's a tad long in spots, but don't parts of your life feel that way?

One could argue that Birdman is just as much a gimmick, albeit a more impressive one, what with the film being one long tracking shot. It works beautifully w/out taking away from the fine ensemble and smart screenplay. Emmanual Lubezki is a lock to win, despite having just won last year for Gravity. But will voters tick off their ballots for Birdman because they are impressed by Alajandro Inarritu's "magically realisitic" approach without going too far off the rails? He creates a narrative that falls into the lap of what America (fuck yeah!) represents, hitting rock bottom and trying to find redemption in your final act (of sorts). Inarritu has yet to make a bad film in my eyes (and I think I'm the only person who is still a champion for Babel), but Richard Linklater's career, though I largely like most his films and am a fan, has been quite uneven. And to direct the same actors for 12 years is not something just any director can pull off seamlessly, but would this speak more for the editor than the director? The film is a lot like most Linklater films, quiet contemplations as if walking down a backroad thinking out loud about life. And remember, kids, Linklater did some tracking shots of his own in Slacker, still possibly my favorite still.  

2--So where does this leave us? Exactly where I began because I still have no fucking clue what will win Best Picture. Some are decrying those two words we hear uttered annually, in hopes of seeing an upset: vote-splitting. Could it happen? Sure. Will it happen? Nope, although this year would be ripe for such a surprise (remember when Brokeback Mountain was a lead-pipe cinch and Crash won?)Some think votes may kick to Selma or American Sniper, but many still have not seen Selma and American Sniper because the box-office beast that could not be (and still barely has been) contained. But I think it may win either or both Sound awards and perhaps Cooper (will get to this in a moment). And where I thought this may be a year of spreading the love among multiple films, the race is shaping up between just a couple that may win multiple awards, primarily Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel.

Speaking of which, Budapest is a film that went from hoping to be nominated for Production Design to being 99 percent certain it will win this category and Makeup, but also maybe Costume Design (would love to see Inherent Vice win this) and maybe Score, and possibly, hopefully Wes Anderson for Original Screenplay. The film could win the most trophies of the night and Wes Baby could still walk away without a damned Oscar!

3--Watch Editing and what wins. Usually Editing and Picture line up but not always (Black Hawk Down over Chicago, both still two of the best edited films I've seen). But if Whiplash should win here, watch out! If Boyhood wins, still not sure it will win Picture. Sorry to sound like every other cynic, but the last time I saw this much deflation from front runner to possible also-ran was in 2001, when Sissy Spacek was seemingly a lock to win Actress and Halle Berry (thrillingly!) won.  

4--Could Patricia Arquette be Boyhood's only Oscar? This idea popped into my head before the SAGs. Being up for only six awards, it's possible. And it's J K Simmons's Oscar to lose at this point, and he clearly deserves it because, though I like the film a lot, he and Miles Teller take a very weak screenplay and make is sing, creating the "jazz" in the film (pun intended).

5--Julianne Moore is finally going to win the goddamned Oscar. Period. Solid category, with Reese Witherspoon being the most surprising performance, far better in Wild than in Walk the Line (which is Phoenix's film). And Rosamund Pike's is possibly the performance of the year (along w/ Jessica Chastian in A Most Violent Year, a film, along w/ Gone Girl, that was hosed) for me, but Moore (and, yes, Kristin Stewart, who also should have been nominated) is stunning in a mediocre film; the last scene is devastating. Who else is up?

6--But could there be an upset in Supporting Actress? It's the category where it usually happens. Some have expressed love for Laura Dern, and she (as well as Reese) is excellent in Wild, but I'm not buying the argument that the Academy wants award her for her pounding the Awards circuit pavement for her dad Bruce last year. He didn't win, did he, good though he was, and I still would change my vote daily from last years Actors, a solid crop where usually Actress is the category bursting at the seams.

7--Which leads to the most problematic category, Actor. It seems down to Michael Keaton and Eddie Redmayne, and this is a case for me in which either actor could win, and I would be thrilled. Both gave very complex, physical, and heartfelt performance, albeit coming from two entirely different planes. Both actors were seamless and moving in roles inherent with layers of irony. Keaton manages the multiple roles within his film in amazing fashion, and Redmayne captures the essence of Stephen Hawking with a twinkle of wonder in his eye as he negotiates his way through Hawking's illness. And The Theory of Everything was a revelation for me; I went into it thinking it would be a diorama with accents but came out incredibly moved by one of the better biopics I've seen in years.  I've personally never been more torn with whom I would vote for. And as much as I have the hots for Bradley Baby, he could well be the spoiler here; a tremendous physical actor anyway, Cooper is a dead-ringer for Chris Kyle, and I never once thought I was watching Cooper. I keep thinking if voters want to reward Sniper it would be here, plus actors pushed hard for Cooper to be nominated, which would explain why, along with the late release of the film/screeners, he wasn't up for a SAG or a Golden Globe. And the film has lost a bit of steam in chattering circles, plus the trial of Chris Kyle's killer just began, so not sure of what impact, if any, this may have since this film, one that turned into a political Rorchach Test that seems to have been more massively polarizing than most expected,

Many are predicting Redmayne to win, and I'm cool with that. But my question is if, in fact, Birdman tends to sweep many categories, how can a film centered on Michael Keaton's performance win multiple Oscars, including possibly both Picture and Director, and not pick up a win for Actor along the way? That would be as ironic as Inarritu's film...

So to quote Maxine Nightingale (where is she now?), we're right back where we started from. We have little over a week yet. All but the WGA have weighed in guildwise, and now we're in that strange nadir where everyone overthinks everything because there's nothing else to be done until the ceremony. Besides, William Goldman said, "Nobody knows anything," and nor does The Maven...

The Mad Dash aka The MS Maven Oscar Predix Extravaganza 2014

The Maven's second High Holy Day of the year is upon us come tomorrow morning, with the first being The Ohio State Buckeyes--surprisingly, thrillingly--winning the National Championship. Thus, I'm coming off the afterglow into the buzzsaw of Oscar nominations. Is it just me or does it seem they hit all of a sudden this year? Meaning, I've not heard quite the buzz and analysis in every corner of our culture as we did last year, when it seemed nominations were even being debated on C-SPAN. 

Until now. 

Just in the past week the pontificating has reached a fever pitch (and I'm not talking about the bad Ryan O'Neal film from 1985), and the nominations debate in some categories resemble a Chinese fire drill. This is due partially (as usual) to politics but more so timing of voting/noms from the various guilds. Until recent years, the awards season was paced out between the guilds and respective awards being handed out, where Academy members could see patterns to ride the bandwagon or for the studio that employed them. But now, the Golden Globes are a non-factor (they usually are anyway, what w/ possibly the lowest membership of voters), and the WGA, PGA, Bafta, and just yesterday the DGA revealing their noms, the latter after Oscar ballots were due last Friday. 

So, this has caused a mad scramble of figuring out the nominees for a few major categories that, frankly to me a few weeks ago, seemed pretty much set and w/ two locks (Actress and Supporting Actress) for wins before the noms are announced. But the last-minute revelations, especially from the DGA, has blown things open all of a sudden. And The Maven thrives on surprises. 

Here are the basics before my predix: 

1-Julianne  Moore is a lock for Actress. I've seen Still Alice, and the final shot is subtle and heartbreaking. Plus, it's her time. (And I'm still puzzled as to why she wasn't up for Supporting Actress for Magnolia, but that's an argument for a different time).

2--Patricia Arquette is a lock for Supporting Actress, I think. I say this because this category is one of the scrambled culprits, from having five that I thought were consistent for the past months (Arquette, Stone, Knightly, Streep, Dern) to now having a lot of possibilities. Did folks see A Most Violent Year to put Chastain in (seeing this later tonight, after finalizing my predix)? Rene Russo if there is a surge for Nightcrawler? And what to do w/ Tilda Swinton and Snowpiercer?. My wild card for this category is Carrie Coon in Gone Girl, but I don't have the guts to pick her in the fifth slot. I do think Streep may be out, though, per not heard much love for Into the Woods, save for Production and Costume Design. 

3--So, what do the voting members do w/ Nightcrawler, Gone Girl, and Whiplash? Let's break this down: 

Nightcrawler: Several folks have it up for several Oscars, which may happen, but I'm not feeling it at the moment. Could have Original Screenplay for Gilroy but even there would it unseat Selma, a film that had momentum but lost steam due to historical controversies and the lack of/late DVD screeners. Gyllenhall for Actor may be the fifth nominee but I have it going to Cooper in American Sniper, also a film late in the game but many like it and Eastwood. 

Gone Girl: The Academy likes Fincher, though still Oscarless, but this is an odd movie for folks to digest. Love Moore, counting the days until she wins Actress, but my performance of the year is Rosamund Pike, but she's lucky to get the nomination w/ the way the film seems to be trending downward (will she be the big omission?). 

Whiplash: Many folks know I'm a jazz nut w/ a huge collection, but I checked my jazz chops at the door when seeing this film. I like it, Simmons is great (and lock #3), but it's a bit overrated. The screenplay, decent but a bit thin for me, is a question mark because the WGA nominated it for Original Screenplay, but the Academy shifted it to Adapted Screenplay, so I'm not sure if this will hurt it for a screenplay nom or not. Thus, if there's a surge, Chazelle for Director? I still think it's a stretch.

4--Actor's presumably fifth spot is wide open, what w/ Redmayne, Keaton, Cumberbatch, and Oylelowo (though he could very well be Selma's lone nominee or left out altogether) likely. Many have Gyllenhall in that last spot, and I would be cool w/ that, but I hope/think it will be Bradley Cooper. American Sniper is solid, one of Eastwood's best films (which surprised me, actually, and I'm a big Clint The Filmmaker fan). I would be thrilled, though, if Ralph Fiennes, or even Eller Coltrane get that spot (why has the latter never been mentioned in all the Boyhood surge? I've found this really curious, but I'm in the minority apparently). 

5--The DGA noms yesterday has caused everyone to renegotiate the five nominees for Director. Linklater, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, and Anderson (finally, happily!) are locks, w/ the latter two spots too wide open. Do Academy members go chalk and put in Morten Tyldum for the Imitation Game? Could the voters actually go for Duverney after all, for someone who started out hot and really pushing the film to now wondering what noms Selma will get? Will they throw Jolie a bone? I have Fincher (am I reaching here?) and Eastwood (the Academy really, really likes him) in the last two slots. 

6--Reese Witherspoon has been on every show it seems, save for the Price is Right, promoting Wild. She hasn't a chance in hell to win, she was terrific in a very small role in Inherent Vice, and remember, if Gone Girl is up for Picture, she's one of the producers. 

7--The Maven will be thrilled for anything for Boyhood, Grand Budapest, Birdman, American Sniper, and Inherent Vice (maybe Adapted Screenplay, but it opened late and a lot of folks I'm sure left the theater or shut off the DVD scratching their collective heads). And I'll squeal w/ glee if Carrie Coon's name is called. 

8--Grand Budapest gained some momentum, but it's been on video for a bit and is now playing on HBO, which helps. I originally thought it would only be up for Original Screenplay, Production Design, and Makeup, but I think it'll get a few more than that now. I'll scream bloody murder if Anderson does not make the Director cut and scream w/ delight if he does. 

9--Aniston safe in slot #5 for Actress? Gut says not, but I'm sticking w/ her. 

10--Adapted Screenplay is a mess and after changing it several times (the most of any category for me, oddly enough per it's usually an acting category). But it is what it is at this point. 

11--Naomi Watts is up for the SAG for St Vincent, but could she be carried along and be up in a Birdman sweep? Think she may split her own vote here (would like to see her up for Birdman, though). And could Streep be left out? 

Picks below the line in each category are alternates. I stopped doing the specialty and music categories per the rules seem to change on a dime. 

Enough w/ the preamble, on with The Maven's picks:

Best Picture
Boyhood
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Selma
The Imitation Game
Gone Girl
The Theory of Everything
American Sniper
---
Whiplash
Foxcatcher
Nightcrawler

Best Director
Richard Linklater
Wes Anderson
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu
David Fincher
Clint Eastwood
---
Ava DuVernay
Angelina Jolie
Morten Tyldum

Best Actor
Michael Keaton
Eddie Redmayne
Benedict Cumberbatch
David Oyelowo
Bradley Cooper
---
Steve Carrell
Jake Gyllenhall
Ralph Fiennes

Best Actress
Julianne Moore
Reese Witherspoon
Rosamund Pike
Felicity Jones
Jennifer Aniston
---
Amy Adams 
Emily Blunt
Marion Cotilliard

Best Supporting Actor
J K Simmons
Ethan Hawke
Edward Norton
Robert Duvall
Mark Ruffalo
---
Tom Wilkinson
Albert Brooks
Josh Brolin

Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette
Emma Stone
Keira Knightly
Laura Dern
Meryl Streep
---
Carrie Coon
Jessica Chastain
Tilda Swinton

Best Original Screenplay
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Birdman
Boyhood
Nightcrawler
Foxcatcher
---
Selma
Mr. Turner
A Most Violent Year

Best Adapted Screenplay
Gone Girl
American Sniper
The Imitation Game
Wild
Inherent Vice
---
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
Unbroken

Best Cinematography
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Unbroken
Mr. Turner
Gone Girl
---
Interstellar
Nightcrawler
Wild

Best Editing
Boyhood
Birdman
American Sniper
The Imitation Game
Whiplash
---
Interstellar
Gone Girl
The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Production Design
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Into the Woods
Interstellar
Mr. Turner
Birdman
---
The Imitation Game
Maleficent
Unbroken

Best Costume Design
Into the Woods
Maleficent
Mr. Turner
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Inherent Vice
---
The Imitation Game
Big Eyes
Birdman

Best Sound Editing
Interstellar
Guardians of the Galaxy
Whiplash
Fury
American Sniper
---
Unbroken
The Hobbit
Into the Woods

Best Sound Mixing
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Unbroken
Fury
Guardians of the Galaxy
---
Birdman
American Sniper
Whiplash

Best Visual Effects
Interstellar
Guardians of the Galaxy
Godzilla
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
The Hobbit
---
Maleficent

Best Makeup
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Foxcatcher
Maleficent
---
Guardians of the Galaxy

Nominations

Birdman                                   9

Boyhood                                  7

The Grand Budapest Hotel     6

The Imitation Game                 5

American Sniper                      5

Gone Girl                                 5

Selma                                      5

Whiplash                                 4

Foxcatcher                              3

Into the Woods                        3

Guardians of the Galaxy         3

The Theory of Everything       3

Note: My guesses for number of noms may not match my categories on purpose

As Walt Whitman says, "All goes onward and upward...and nothing collapses..." But try telling that to most of Hollywood for the next six weeks...

The Maven's work is done here. Hearing all the categories at 8:37 (we won't see the lesser categories that are announced just before) is going to be weird, but I can dig it. '

Happy Oscar, y'all! Let the highjinks and arguments begin!

Oscar Last Minute Update/Omissions

I failed to note two things in my previous Oscar Predix Blog:

1--The running time of the show will be 3 hours and 26 minutes.

2--My surprise upset for the evening I predict Judi Dench for Actress.

Waiting for Oscar, or The "Nothing [Else] To Be Done" Academy Awards: The MS Maven's Fearless Predix 2014

The Maven's High-Holy Day, aka The Oscars, is one day away, but enough already. The din of Oscar punditry, analyses, leaked ballots of Academy members is off the chain, more so than usual. Folks are all to hell because of the preferential ballot, meaning all a nominee needs to win is 50%+1 vote, making it harder to predict some categories.

Most years by this time, we pretty much can figure what will win in the major categories, though we always hope against hope for our personal favorites. Honestly, this year is different, and I am still stumped, yes like most the pundits, on three categories: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Original Screenplay. And w/ the exception Gravity, anyone who wins in these categories is okay by me. My three favorite films of the year are American Hustle,12 Years a Slave, and Her. So, if Her beats AH in Screenplay, I'm cool, if Lupita Nyong'o beats Jennifer Lawrence in Supporting Actress (or vice versa), I'm cool, and same goes for BP.

Last year was good, but this year was inordinately good collectively for films.  I've said of the nine BP nominees that nobody can really win because not a single one is a standout that can best represent the year in film. Is that saying the films are weak? No, but each film could in its own respective way represent the Hollywood ideal now. Is 12 Years a Slave a powerhouse message film that Oscar voters usually clamor for and want to feel good about voting for it? No, because word around the campfire is that some Academy members refused to watch the film because it was "too rough," which I'm not so sure about because let's face it, how many members watch the DVD screeners, let alone go see the films in private screenings or in the theater? They still vote for the studios that employed them, friends, etc., though I've heard about more viewership on the part of members than in recent years. Also, 12YAS is more subtle and not the typical liberal whitewash film; I see it as a brutally honest work of art (Director Steve McQueen was a graphic artist before he was a filmmaker, and it shows here quite beautifully).

Gravity is a beautiful package w/ nothing inside. Director Alfonso Cauron richly deserves to win Best Director and below-the-line awards because it is visually stunning, but Sandra Bullock is Spam in a can; even Clooney can't save this one for me, which is saying a lot. If a sci-fi film hasn't won before, and not saying there isn't a first time, but have a hard time believing voters will tick it off for Picture.

American Hustle is a better movie than folks give it credit for, but David O. Russell has made like Robert Altman and created a goofy, highly entertaining, yet spot-on tribute to 70's culture and politics. People say the film is too goofy, but then wasn't the late-70's? One word: Disco...

But the Oscar politics this year is in overdrive, and the analyses I've read put me in mind of the 2000 presidential election. That race was considered close before the November 2000 election, and we all know about the voting mess that ensued as a result. Sadly, we will never know how close the vote totals are in any category because the Academy will not allow vote totals to be released. I think this is bullshit, but then then if they were released, there would probably be more than a few egos crushed, not to mention endless arguments. And we know there are no recounts in Hollywood. (Sidebar: I don't go for cheap, but if it meant sleeping w/ a member of Price Waterhouse Coopers to get vote totals for any given year or category, I would do it. It's been one of my wishes that will never be fulfilled).

Without any further ado, I'm not waiting for Godot any longer so let's light this candle. Here are my fearless (and maybe foolish) predix. My picks are for what I think will win and the upset for each category, not whom I would vote for:

Best Picture: 12 Years a Slave
upset: Gravity

Best Director: Alfonso Cauron
upset: Steve McQueen

Best Actor: Matthew McConaughey
upset: Bruce Dern

Best Actress: Cate Blanchett
upset: Amy Adams

Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto
upset: Jonah Hill

Best Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong'o
upset: Jennifer Lawrence

Best Original Screenplay: American Hustle
upset: Her

Best Adapted Screenplay: 12 Years a Slave
upset: Philomena

Best Animated Feature: Frozen
upset: The Wind Rises

Best Foreign-Language Film: The Great Beauty
upset: The Missing Picture

Best Original Score: Gravity
upset: Philomena

Best Original Song: "Let It Go"--Frozen
upset: "Ordinary Love"--Mandela: The Long Walk to Freedom

Best Cinematography: Gravity
upset: Prisoners

Best Editing: Captain Phillips
upset: American Hustle

Best Production Design: The Great Gatsby
upset: 12 Years a Slave

Best Costume Design: American Hustle
upset: The Great Gatsby

Best Sound Mixing: Gravity
upset: Inside Llewyn Davis

Best Sound Editing: Gravity
upset: Captain Phillips

Best Visual Effects: Gravity
upset: The Hobbit

Best Makeup: The Dallas Buyers Club
upset: Bad Grandpa

Best Documentary Feature: 20 Feet From Stardom
upset: The Act of Killing

Best Documentary Short Subject: The Lady in Number 6
upset: Cave Digger

Best Live-Action Short: Helium
upset: The Voorman Problem

Best Animated Short: Get a Horse
upset: Mr. Hublot

The Wins

(Note: Win totals won't necessarily match my Predix)



 

Gravity                        6

12 Years a Slave        3

Dallas Buyers Club     3

American Hustle         2

The Great Gatsby       2

Frozen                        2

Captain Phillips          1

 

Now to the burning observations to cut through the media madness surrounding the voting as of late:

 

1--American Hustle and 12 Years a Slave are tossups in four categories: BP, Supporting Actress, Original and Adapted Screenplay, respectively, and Costume Design, causing a lot of second guessing... 

 

2--The largest problem I think in Supporting Actress as a result. Can Jen win two years in a row? Nyong'o has become the new "it" girl, and justifiably so. Both are just so young and so damned good and you feel both will be around for a long time. Usually w/ actors up in all four categories one usually wins, and the actors branch of the Academy love Hustle. Some have argued that those Academy members who didn't watch 12YAS all the way through or at all didn't see Nyong'o at all. I'm still agonizing over this category, and I'll be thrilled if either actress wins. But one thing may tip the scales in Nyong'o's favor: Usually if you win the Oscar that actor's next film is usually shitty. Non-Stop was just released yesterday, and Nyong'o plays a flight attendant. Watch June Squibb win the damn thing (she's good, though).

 

3--I would kill for Arcade Fire to win Score for Her. But that ain't gonna happen.

 

4--Gravity will win the most Oscars, and I have the film winning six. But just because it will sweep most the technical awards doesn't always translate to a BP win. Remember, The Aviator won five Oscars, but not for BP nor Director (the only major award was Blanchett). However, if you see Gravity win Production Design or especially Editing, game probably over. Same for 12YAS. If American Hustle wins Editing, anything could happen.

 

5--Though it was my favorite film of the year, I've had a gut feeling American Hustle could very well be shut out. I doubt it, but I think can win two Awards at most. I just want to see Russell win the damned thing at some point.

 

6--Films that will be shut out: Nebraska (sadly), Her (sadly x 2), Philomena, and The Wolf of Wall Street.

 

7--Now that the voting has opened up to the entire Academy membership and not just to an overseeing committee, I think this will favor 20 Feet From Stardom winning Documentary Feature over The Act of Killing; if the committee still voted the latter would win, but I've heard many members either abstained from voting this category or voted 20 Feet. I still find it odd that for years committee members would have to sign off that he/she saw all five nominated films for Documentary and Foreign-Language Film, but not for the entirety of the awards.

 

As usual, I'll be performing my annual rite of passage of posting and Tweeting on Facebook and Twitter. And once again, I didn't do an office pool because I need to save my money to restock more beer after tomorrow night.

 

Happy Oscar Sunday, y'all. And, of course, shalom...



 

 

 

Do The Hustle aka The MS Maven Oscar Nomination Predix Extravaganza 2013

To paraphrase Screenwriter William Goldman, nobody knows anything, especially when it comes to Oscars. And I have to admit I miss the days when social media didn't exist and you guessed the how Academy voters would go. Now it's constant bombardment, which is just overkill. Put this way: I've probably seen more Oscar-bait than the voting academy.

Here are some basics before my predix:

1--Cate Blanchett is a lock to win Best Actress. Anything else is unacceptable.

2--Jared Leto is a lock to win Best Supporting Actor.

3--This Oscar Season is a tad longer than usual. Thank the Olympics for that one. Will be interesting to see the trends as a result.

4--Actor is the toughest category of the lot in terms of noms  and the winner I've seen in years; it's usually Actress that is loaded. For the fifth spot, I'm hoping Christian Bale, predicting Joaquin Phoenix, but will probably be Leo.

5--The surprise I predict is that Bruce Dern is not nominated and that Sally Hawkins is.

6--David O. Russell better get some Academy love come March 2nd.

7--Editor Thelma Schoonmaker deserves a Purple Heart for Wolf.

8--Gravity is still the most overrated film of the year...

9--...and Prisoners is the most underrated.

10--I don't know shit, either, despite now having seen most the possible nominees...



Enough w/ the preamble. On with the show:

Best Picture
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Gravity
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
The Wolf of Wall Street
Nebraska
Her
---
Saving Mr. Banks
Philomena

Best Director
Steve McQueen
David O. Russell
Alfonso Cauron
Paul Greengrass
Spike Jonze
---
Martin Scorsese
Alexander Payne
Joel and Ethan Coen

Best Actor
Chiwetel Ejofor
Matthew McConaughey
Tom Hanks
Bruce Dern
Joaquin Phoenix (hey, he finally smiles!)
---
Christian Bale
Leonardo DiCaprio
Robert Redford

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett
Sandra Bullock
Emma Thompson
Judi Dench
Amy Adams
---
Meryl Streep
Julia Louis-Dreyfus
Greta Gerwig

Best Supporting Actor
Jared Leto
Michael Fassbender
Barkhad Abdi
Bradley Cooper
Daniel Bruhl
---
James Gandolfini
Jonah Hill
Tom Hanks

Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Lawrence
Lupita Nyong'o
June Squibb
Julia Roberts
Sally Hawkins
---
Oprah Winfrey
Octavia Spencer
Sarah Paulson

Best Original Screenplay
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Her
Nebraska
Dallas Buyers Club
---
Inside Llewyn Davis
Enough Said
Saving Mr. Banks

Best Adapted Screenplay
12 Years a Slave
Before Midnight
Captain Phillips
The Wolf of Wall Street
August: Osage County
---
Philomena
Lone Survivor
The Great Gatsby

Best Cinematography
Gravity
12 Years a Slave
Captain Phillips
Inside Llewyn Davis
Prisoners
---
Nebraska
Rush
Her

Best Editing
Gravity
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
The Wolf of Wall Street
---
Rush
Dallas Buyers Club
World War Z

Best Production Design
The Great Gatsby
American Hustle
12 Years a Slave
Gravity
The Hobbit
---
Her
Saving Mr. Banks
Oz The Great and Powerful

Best Costume Design
American Hustle
The Great Gatsby
12 Years a Slave
The Invisible Woman
Oz the Great and Powerful
---
Saving Mr. Banks
The Hunger Games
The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Sound Editing
Gravity
Captain Phillips
Rush
All is Lost
12 Years a Slave
---
World War Z
Pacific Rim
Her

Best Sound Mixing
Gravity
All is Lost
Rush
Captain Phillips
Inside Llewyn Davis
---
12 Years a Slave
Frozen
Her

Best Visual Effects
Gravity
Pacific Rim
Elysium
---
The Hobbit
World War Z

Best Makeup
American Hustle
Dallas Buyers Club
Bad Grandpa
---
The Great Gatsby

Nominations

 

12 Years a Slave          10

Gravity                            9

American Hustle             8

Captain Phillips               7

Nebraska                        5

Dallas Buyers Club         4

The Wolf of Wall Street  4

Philomena                      3

Her                                 3

 

My work is done here and 8:37am comes pretty early. The Maven will snap-to then. Happy Oscar!