Backsliding and Atoning: The Maven's Fearless, Finally, (and Probably Foolish) Oscar Predix Extravaganza

Backsliding and Atoning: The Maven's Fearless, Finally, (and Probably Foolish) Oscar  Predix Extravaganza 

A couple of weeks ago, our world was turned upside down, with a sudden burst of firepower with no direction. No, not the "war" in Iran, the Oscar race! 

Sinners winning Ensemble at the SAG Awards (not ready for the name change yet) was not a surprise, but Michael B. Jordan winning was. Pundits yap all the time about shifts in races while the ballots are still out, and the ballots were still out when this occurred. And I don't think is a fluke. Jordan's been around for what seems like forever and winning the SAG Award for Actor has upended the race a bit. 

Leonardo DiCaprio was the front runner for One Battle After Another for a while, and Timothy Chalamet shot off his mouth, got a bit entitled, and killed his chances w/ Marty Supreme. Wagner Moura has some recent buzz for The Secret Agent as of late, but methinks to no avail. Leo could still win, but Jordon seemed to surge right before the ballots were due. He deserves it. 

Let me also say at this juncture that his best performance to me still is in Fruitvale Station, the first Jordan/Ryan Coogler one-two punch of several films. It's a highly underrated film folks should see; the last scene is a sucker-punch. 

And, to that point, Coogler will finally win an Oscar as well, but for Original Screenplay. That is unless Sinners, an extraordinary-acted popcorn movie, falls into the old trap of, what with all Academy members choosing who wins on the final ballot, ticking off most of the categories for usually-epic and usually studio films to sweep the Awards. But those days are largely gone since the 90's, what with how now it's become an argument for films made outside the system, so stop decrying the studios this and that. Make better movies. 

Now, I've buried the lead. Yes, Paul Thomas Anderson is going to win a goddamned Oscar or two, finally! It's ironic that a child who grew up in the industry has taken this long to get here. One Battle After Another is a bit of a studio-ish film but not really, which has been the case w/ most PTA films. I don't think Hollywood has know what to do with him, but it's his time. Is the film the masterpiece everyone has claimed? No. I love the movie, it's among his best, but because a film comes along at "the right time" and everyone piles on doesn't always translate to winning; hence, it's his time. I still say Boogie Nights and Magnolia are his one-two punch. But PTA and Coogler will both be winners, and that pleases me to no end. 

And AMPAS/Warner Brothers screwed the Chase Infiniti pooch by running her for Actress instead of Supporting. Would she win in the lower category? Maybe?

Teyana Taylor has reaped the benefits of awards season instead, deservedly; the image of being pregnant out-to-her with the machine gun is worth it alone! Amy Madigan, whom I've always loved and has been around the block a time or two, is a hoot in Weapons, and it's one of the definitions of a supporting performance. I really want Taylor and Madigan both to win, but that ain't happening. Advantage, Madigan. 

The one lock of the night is Jessie Buckley in Hamnet, a film I expected to enjoy but I didn't expect to be moved, and she did so; I won't forget her "cry" anytime soon. She's another actor who's been around forever it seems, first becoming aware through the Bridget Jones movies. If anyone wins beside her, I'll eat an egg (IYKYK)!

Finally to Supporting Actor. Consensus is that Sean Penn is still on-track to win his third Oscar, deservedly. He's also a hoot, and amid the current cultural/political climate, he seems a shoe-in, as they used to say. 

But this is the most volatile of the four acting categories. You have Stellan Skargard who is a sentimental favorite in Sentimental Value, and, if there is, in fact, vote-splitting (which has been dormant for quite some time), he could make out. Penn's main competition is Delroy Lindo may be swept up in the Sinners fervor and has also been around forever. He's terrific, as usual. I don't want to say this is his only chance, but it may very well be. Regardless, there's not a bad performance in the category, but I do prefer Penn to Lindo, no shade on the latter at all, but more for how Penn's character fits into OBAA's story. 

Just a handful of observation:

1--How in the hell is Paul Mescal not up for Actor in Hamnet? I'll wait.

2--I'm still torn on how many Oscars Sinners and OBAA will win. I don't think it'll be a juggernaut for Sinners but will be several, but OBAA will be fewer. 

3--Yes, still pissed about the category snafu regarding Infiniti.

4--Will Diane Warren finally win a competitive Oscar? Nope, blame KPop for that. 

5--I wonder how much longer the In Memorium tributes will last, considering what the producers are signaling and especially w/ the major deaths we had? Mavens don't cry but I may wind up a blubbering idiot with Duvall, Keaton, and Reiner. 

6--I'm glad, but why less musical numbers for Song? They bog down the show. 

Last-minute gut-check:

1--Skarsgård for Sentimental Value.

2--Wunmi Mosaku if she's swept up in a Sinners wave.

3--OBAA for Picture.

Enough already. Let's finally get piggy with it (minus the slap):

Picture: Sinners 
upset: One Battle After Another

Director: Paul Thomas Anderson
upset: Ryan Coogler

Actor: Michael B. Jordan
upset: Leonardo DiCaprio

Actress: Jessie Buckley
upset: Kate Hudson

Supporting Actor: Sean Penn
upset: Delroy Lindo

Supporting Actress: Amy Madigan
upset: Teyana Taylor

Orignal Screenplay: Sinners
upset: Sentimental Value

Adapted Screenplay: One Battle After Another
upset: Hamnet

Animated Feature: KPop Demon Hunters
upset: Elio

International Feature: Sentimental Value
upset: The Secret Agent

Orginal Score: Sinners
upset: One Battle After Another

Song: "Golden"--KPop Demon Hunters
upset: "I Lied to You"--Sinners

Cinematography: One Battle After Another 
upset: Sinners

Editing: One Battle After Another 
upset: Sinners

Production Design: Frankenstein
upset: Sinners

Costume Design: Frankenstein
upset: Sinners

Sound: F1
upset: Sinners

Visual Effects: Avatar: Fire and Ash
upset: Sinners

Makeup and Hair: Frankenstein
upset: Sinners

Documentary Feature: The Perfect Neighbor
upset: The Alabama Solution

Documentary Short Film: All the Empty Rooms
upset: Armed Only with a Camera

Live Action Short Film: Two People Exchanging Saliva
upset: The Singers

Wins

Sinners 7

One Battle After Another 6

Frankenstein 3

Hamnet 2

KPop 2

Running Time: 3 Hours, 26 Minutes (longer w/ extended In Memoriam, I assume).

Maven out! Them's my predix, and I'm sticking to them!

Follow along on the socials or mute me until baseball opening day. And saving Green Stamps for my annual March Madness Pool (holler if you want in, $10/bracket, who gets the most wins, wins the pot!).

Have a few, small beers and enjoy the ride!

Happy Oscar Sunday, y'all!

And, of course, Shalom, y'all!

Boom, Baby! The Maven's Fearless (And Maybe Not-So-Foolish) Oscar Winners Predix Extravaganza!

After several years of Oscar ceremony whiplash, often seeing the Awards being handed out on Labor Day, The Academy came back to their senses and scheduled the show at a more reasonable time (though I would love to see them at the end of February again. Winter Olympics, where art thou?). 

Paradoxically, I decry this, but the Awards came up faster than Trump can come up with cheddar for his judgements. So here we are, in what to me felt like a shortened awards season. Even Film Twitter has been behaving. This year's film crop was overall better than I expected, with no real howlers in the lot, despite my being in the minority opinion on a couple of films, which I'll get to shortly. 

This Awards season began with Barbenheimer and ended on some grand notes, with many fine performances, particularly with Best Actress; this year's lineup rivals the last great bloodbath of a lineup in 2020. The burning question is how many trophies will Oppenheimer or Barbie win? I'm not of the camp that Oppenheimer will sweep like in the old days because the Academy is more diversified. To this point, I think this will be a  share-the-wealth year. 

But Oppenheimer will win several awards, and Christopher Nolan will finally win an Oscar; he deserves it. I'm not a big Nolan fan, and I went into the film cynically but came out a fan. Of course, Nolan's M.O. and downfall is his inability to develop characters of any depth, but he was kinda force to go a bit deeper here because these are real people. But the key to the film is Cillian Murphy. Like with the question I asked with the 2020 Oscar about how despite being a loaded category, how Frances McDormand is the lead role in Nomadland couldn't be considered since the film took most the major awards, how can Oppenheimer win a large handful of Awards and not have Murphy along for the ride. The scene when Oppenheimer speaks to the audience after the bombs have been drop, when he looks amazed at his achievement and horrified at what he's created, Murphy's expressions are a tightrope many actors couldn't pull off quite as well. What his eyes. 

As usual, I crammed for the exam, and here are my observations for how the night may go, as well as an airing of an Oscar grievance or two:

1--The only locks I see w/ any of the major Awards are Robert Downey, Jr. and Da'vine Joy Randolph, the latter of which may be the only Oscar for The Holdovers. Love the film but it peaked early. 

2--Actor started out w/ a Birdman vs The Theory of Everything rivalry between Paul Giamatti vs. Cillian Murphy, but the latter will win. I would, though, love to see Jeffrey Wright upset here (won't happen). 

3--Back to Barbie, I think it will win a couple of trophies. It will win for Best Song, but which one? I love me some Billie Eilish, but this is not her best song, and "I'm Just Ken" is a hell of a lot of fun. I loved "Dance the Night" better than both of those, but it didn't make the cut. 

Barbie is competing head-to-head with Poor Things, which was just flat-out fucking brilliant on every level, and it will be interesting who comes out ahead in the craft categories. 

3--Does the Academy have the balls to award Greta Gerwig for Adapted Screenplay to make up for the lack of a Director nod. I would love it because I love her, but I don't see it.

4--And while we're at it: Is Wes Anderson finally going to win a fucking Oscar? Yes, Virginia, I think he will!

5--Is Oppenheimer's screenplay going to win by rote if it picks up a lot of wins in the lesser categories? I think American Fiction will beat it, and I hope it does, another brilliant film with a layered, hilarious screenplay. 

6--The Holdovers had a real push for Original Screenplay, but folks more recently have been abuzz about Anatomy of a Fall, which, for me, along w/ Poor Things and American Fiction, is the year's best film. It wasn't the French entry for the International Film category (it should have been, and I think would beat the inferior The Zone of Interest) and kicked to the major categories. I think it wins here...

7--...and for Sandra Huller for Actress. I love the film, and am thinking w/ head not heart for these picks, but she shape-shifted her emotions throughout her performance, keeping me on edge and trying to figure out is she had a hand in her husband's death. 

8--And this is far from joining the consensus opinion about the power of the film, but The Zone of Interest had a couple of good shots but otherwise didn't impress me. I know it's bases on a true story, but after the first 20 minutes, I got it. I've liked Jonathan Glazer's other films better, but he did nothing to allow me to care for any of the characters. While I've said for years that more filmmakers should leave a lot to the imagination (and I'm thinking of Mike's Murder from 1983, not a great movie but I liked it, where the title character, who was murdered, is only seen in a photograph on a mantle, not flashbacks). However, it will win International Film. There has been a late surge, but I don't buy it will win Best Picture. 

9--I think Past Lives and The Color Purple (indulge me a shoutout to Danielle Brooks, the pride of Greenville, SC) will get hosed, and if Lily Gladstone doesn't win Actress, Killers of the Flower Moon will be hosed as well. 

10--And notice I've left Actress to the last because this is the one category that started with a lock for Gladstone but is now up in the air. I don't know who will win at this point. Carey Mulligan in Maestro is so nuanced in her performance she almost upstages Bradley Cooper (and he's better than what many are giving him credit for); and I thought she should have won in the Nomadland year for Promising Young Woman. Annette Bening gave one of her best performances (as did Jodie Foster) in Nyad, so that leaves Gladstone, Huller, and Stone. 

Killer Moon peaked early and lasts about 10 hours, so I'm not sure how much that will play here. Emma Stone's performance in Poor Things is a brilliantly comedic tightrope, one of the best comedic performances I've seen because it's so raw, but Sandra Huller also walks a very ambiguous tightrope. I won't be upset with any winner in this category, but my gut says Huller here. But I'd love it if Stone takes it. 

Last-Minute No Guts, No Glory gut-check (h/t Sasha Stone):

Huller for Actress

Not Nolan for Director

Ryan Gosling for Supporting Actor

Enough already! Finally, let's get jiggy with it:

Best Picture: Oppenheimer
upset: The Holdovers

Best Director: Christopher Nolan

upset: Yorgos Lanthimos

Best Actor: Cillian Murphy

upset: Paul Giamatti

Best Actress: Sandra Huller

upset: Lily Gladstone

Best Supporting Actor: Robert Downey, Jr.

upset: Ryan Gosling

Best Supporting Actress: Da'vine Joy Randolph

upset: Jodie Foster

Best Original Screenplay: Anatomy of a Fall

upset: The Holdovers

Best Adapted Screenplay: American Fiction

upset: Barbie

Best International Film: The Zone of Interest

upset: Society of the Snow

Best Animated Feature: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

upset: The Boy and The Heron

Best Song: "What Was I Made For?"--Barbie

upset: "I'm Just Ken"--Barbie

Best Score: Oppenheimer

upset: Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Cinematography: Oppenheimer

upset: Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Editing: Oppenheimer

upset: Anatomy of a Fall

Best Production Design: Poor Things

upset: Barbie

Best Costume Design: Barbie

upset: Poor Things

Best Sound: Oppenheimer

upset: The Zone of Interest

Best Visual Effects: Godzilla Minus One

upset: The Creator

Best Makeup and Hair: Poor Things

upset: Maestro

Best Documentary: 20 Days in Mariupol

upset: Four Daughters

Best Documentary Short: The Last Repair Shop

upset: The ABC's of Book Banning

Best Animated Short: Letter to a Pig

upset: WAR IS OVER

Best Live Action Short: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

upset: The After

Wins:

Oppenheimer    8

Poor Things    3

Anatomy of a Fall  2

Barbie 2

The Holdovers 2

Killers of the Flower Moon 1

Running Time: 3 hours 26 minutes (don't let the early start time fool you)

That's it! Them's my predix, and I'm sticking to them. I'll kvetch throughout the High Holy Day on the social, so follow along or mute me til the Ides of March. 

No Oscar pool this year per higher grocery and beer prices. Priorities!

Happy Oscar Sunday, y'all! And, of course, Shalom, y'all!