Firebombed! The Maven's Fearless (This Time Maybe-Foolish) Oscar Winners Predix Extravaganza!
The Maven's been all to hell this Oscar season. The North Carolina floods made for the semester from hell last Fall (and it continues in pockets), I had house issues, a weird rash (cleared up with a single pill, the reverse Substance), flaky and missing emails (thanks, Microsoft), and DJT grifting his way back to the Oval Office.This is why I didn't do the usual Nominations blog.
I have to admit this slate of films collectively are mediocre at best, and it's been hard to get excited. With the exception of a small handful of films, I don't think most of these films will be remembered in 20 years, unless we get hit by that astroid. Don't look up!
But once the nominations came out, some good stuff emerged. And I do think there is a big disconnect between when the nominations came out and who could win tonight.
Blame some of this on the often postponed and scrambled awards schedules due to the fires. Oscars mean nothing in light of that unfortunate and anger-inducing tragedy, but. now that there has been a bit of distance and ever-so-slow recovery, the time feels right to get this year out of the way. Sidebar: I hate when the media drops coverage after the intensity has died down with no detailed follow-ups in the aftermath.
Many pundits think this year could be wide open, save for Culkin for Supporting Actor and some technical awards for Wicked. This time I tend to agree, especially on BP, Actor, and Actress.
But the hype this year has been mostly subdued, but then when you have an odd group of films nobody has seen... How many civilians have seen The Brutalist? That's what I thought. And I think this year's show may be the lowest rated yet.
Folks ask why ratings are always down. The Oscar outgrew their purpose, because of access. Before social media, that was one of the few ways people could see "movie stars" but social media is constant posting, subtweeting, and vomiting every thought about them.
Film Twitter had been out of control the past few years, but not this one. This is a bit refreshing. But I've said all along, it's about the films at hand, not behind you.
So I have a few insights and less pontification this round:
1--I say Anora above all, but bias aside, this is my big, burning question: How does it win BP and Director but not for Actress? I think it's the performance of the year, for Mikey Madison has a poise and can roll with the punches. She'll be around awhile. And I wished Yura Borisov could win.
2--Then we have Demi Moore, who's been around the block a few times, and folks want to finally honor her body of work. But The Substance is a great idea in theory but a terrible, one-note movie w/ pyrotechnics; that gory ending could have been cut in half and made the same point. The first half of the film was fascinating, but, like a lot of films lately, the screenwriters wrote themselves into a corner, making for a second-half slog. And Coralie Fargeat had no business being up for Director.
But will she win? I just don't know at this point. Madison had momentum late, when the ballots were due, and a lot of the anonymous ballots are all over the place. Fernanda Torres could very well upset, but I'm Still Here will win International Film.
3--One thing for sure, Emilia Perez will win for Zoe Saldana, the best thing in an uneven movie. Karla Sofia Gascon shouldn't be canceled for previous comments, but I do think this dinged the film.
4--Actor became more interesting as the season chugged along. I love Adrian Brody, and he emerged early on as the one to beat. But he's playing the same role he had in The Pianist, the better performance. But I have yet to speak to anyone who like the film, or even got through all of it. So I think it gets shut out because it's slowly lost momentum.
But recently Timothee Chalamet has gained momentum, and you can't always go by SAG. He's been worse than a whore in church on the circuit at the right time, and it may work. I'm a huge Dylan fan, seen the man himself three times, and I kinda buy him as Dylan but not completely. But then Sissy Spacek capture Loretta Lynn's aura, but there's a hint of it here. And I know many folks in the music industry are split down the middle on the film itself among those who know Dylan and no. I hope he wins, and he feels "due," thought Clalamet is just getting started.
There could be a spoiler here in Ralph Fiennes, and I'd be down for that. Talk about a body of work going back to The English Patient which I thought he should have won for, Billy Bob Thornton aside, over Geoffrey Rush, a terrific actor in a gimmicky movie. But Conclave has gained a lot of momentum of late, deservedly so. I went in not expecting much (blame my ex, a hardcore Catholic, for that) and loved it, especially the set design and editing, but the acting puts it over the top. The film will win Adapted Screenplay and possibly Editing, for it's the best edited film in my eyes.
5--Loved A Real Pain and I do love me some Culkin and Eisenberg, and both will win Oscars, which makes me quite pleased. And Culkin is the only lock I see.
6--WIll Dianę Warren finally win a competitive Oscar? Probably not. I'd love to see Elton John have another Oscar, but "Mi Camino" is winning this.
Last-minute upsets:
Monica Barbaro or Ariana Grande for Supporting
Edward Norton for Supporting
Enough already! Let's get jiggy with it (sans slapping)
