Now we are back to our regularly-scheduled Oscar Season, what with the pandemic largely behind us and no Olympics on the horizon. The Ceremony will be on March 12th, back to a more reasonable time instead at the Fourth of July. But nomination day has blindsided me!
I have been out of the loop this go-round, partially because I taught six classes this fall, but largely because I haven't felt the urgency with this possible crop. There are some exceptions, though, but otherwise I'm still plowing through Oscar bait.
But I have been in touch w/ several members to get a bede on how things may go. A few quick observations, as usual:
1--The Fablemans, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and, yes, Top Gun: Maverick and Avatar: The Way of Water will get a lot of noms. We've seen this Spielberg movie before, and I sense that Hollywood is settling into a feel-good movie groove for a bit.
2--That said, Everything Everywhere is not like anything I, or the Academy, has seen before, so it's a wild card, save for Ke Huy Quan being a near-certainty to win Supporting Actor.
3--Speaking of actors, at the moment I see three of the four acting categories as probably locks: Cate Blanchett (#3, baby!), Quan, and Angela Bassett for Supporting Actress. Actor is all over the map this time. It's between Brendan Fraser and Colin Farrell, and I'm not convinced Fraser will win, but I'm also not sure Farrell will. Austin Butler will be up in a terrible movie, but he's the wild card. But let's not put the cart before the horse.
4--I'm also not sure how many noms The Whale will receive. I've heard mixed from many I've talked to. Is it just Fraser and Screenplay? This time, I'm clueless on the trajectory on this one.
5--I got a great kick (no pun intended) out of Banshees. I have an Irish lit specialization (and almost studied Irish film at one point), and this is pure Ireland. I don't see how you have Farrell without Brendan Gleeson, who's always been the cat's ass and has never been nominated. That changes tomorrow morning.
6--Banshees, Everything, and Women Talking are the horses I'm riding this year. As far as promotion/chat shows/when the ballots are out there, Women has been flooding the zone. Sarah Polley, whom I've loved since The Sweet Hereafter and an even better filmmaker, is loved by the industry, and this film is a slow burn, so damned subtle in addressing a hot-button issue. It's brilliant. I do think Polley (hopefully), is a lock for Adapted Screenplay. I also hope Jessie Buckley is along for the ride as well.
7--I think Babylon will be hosed in the major categories. It'll get some technical nods, but it's not memorable.
8--Can a donkey get a nomination? Several other asses in Hollywood have...
Enough already. As usual, I don't do docs, shorts, foreign films, or music.
Best Picture
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Fabelmans
Top Gun: Maverick
TAR
Elvis
Women Talking
All Quiet on the Western Front
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Whale
Best Director
Steven Spielberg
Daniels
Martin McDonagh
Todd Field
Sarah Polley
---
Edward Berger
James Cameron
Joseph Kosinski
Best Actor
Colin Farrell
Brendan Fraser
Austin Butler
Bill Nighy
Paul Mescal
---
Tom Cruise
Tom Hanks
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett
Michelle Yeoh
Danielle Deadwyler
Viola Davis
Ana de Armas
---
Michelle Williams
Andrea Riseborough
Best Supporting Actor
Ke Huy Quan
Brendan Gleeson
Paul Dano
Barry Keoghan
Ben Wishaw
---
Eddie Redmayne
Bryan Tyree Henry
Judd Hirsch
Best Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett
Kerry Condon
Jamie Lee Curtis
Stephanie Hsu
Jessie Buckley
---
Hong Chau
Michelle Williams
Janelle Monae
Best Original Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
TAR
Triangle of Sadness
---
Aftersun
The Menu
Babylon
Best Adapted Screenplay
Women Talking
The Whale
Living
She Said
Top Gun: Maverick
---
All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion
Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Best Cinematography
Top Gun: Maverick
Empire of Light
The Batman
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Fabelmans
---
Avatar: The Way of Water
Elvis
Women Talking
Best Editing
Top Gun: Maverick
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Elvis
The Fabelmans
The Banshees of Inisherin
---
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
Avatar: The Way of Water
Best Production Design
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Babylon
Elvis
Avatar: The Way of Water
All Quiet on the Western Front
---
The Fablemans
Glass Onion
Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
Best Costume Design
Elvis
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Babylon
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
---
The Woman King
Don't Worry Darling
The Fabelmans
Best Sound
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Avatar: The Way of Water
Best Visual Effects
Avatar: The Way of Water
Top Gun: Maverick
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
The Batman
Nope
---
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Thirteen Lives
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Best Makeup
Elvis
The Whale
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Blonde
---
Amsterdam
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once 9
The Banshees of Inisherin 8
The Fabelmans 7
Top Gun: Maverick 6
Elvis 6
Women Talking 5
Them's my predix, and I'm sticking to them. The slog starts in the AM 8:30, and my students will endure watching the announcement with me.
My work here is done until March 12th. Follow me or mute me on the socials: Facebook, Twitter (@Franster23), and/or Instagram (@themsmaven) from now until March. The usual kvetching will continue.
Happy Oscar Nominations Day, y'all! And, of course, Shalom and Seasons Screenings!
