Everything is upside down. Eligibility went far past December, and more movies went straight to streaming. I imagine more folks in the general population and Academy members alike probably watched more than in years past. Et tu, Spielberg?
The timetable for awards season is askew, making for a lot of second-guessing with these noms. It's hard to tell what's been hot or not, and it feels like the ballots were only out for about three days. So anything could happen this go-round, happily. Even #FilmTwitter has been calmer than usual, but I bet all hell breaks loose after tomorrow morning. This time it'll be a nice distration from the pandemic and politics. But this is one time I've been overthinking everything in trying to pull these predix together. It doesn't help that college hoops is compounding this, as well as Daylight Savings Time. Talk about Madness!
Here are some elements I'm still puzzling out:
1-There are some films I think have lost quite a bit of steam in the major categories, including Mank, Da 5 Bloods, and The Father, and more for me in the acting categories than anywhere. I'm not convinced Gary Oldman nor Amanda Seyfried make the cut now, or even David Fincher for Director, though the Academy loves movies about movies, so there's that. I think it will get a slew of technical nods, though. I'm afraid Bloods could be shut out, and The Father feels like it peaked too early.
2-The one category I've agonized over is Supporting Actress. It's a bloodbath. Talk about peaking early, is it possible Glenn Close misses? She's the best element of Hillbilly Elegy (and people who know me know my problems w/ the book and Vance, but I do think the movie is better and, after a very uneven first third, once it gets its footing it's not bad), but, again, it feels like it came out two years ago. I think at this point Jodie Foster gets Seyfried's spot--I think. I even want to change my picks again just writing this. Does Coleman miss? Youn?
3-Minari will do well, but not sure about the acting categories. It didn't seem to be prominent as the ballots were out there to me. But then to say any films right now in this season are on the downturn is a bit of a non-starter.
4-I'm pulling for all things Promising Young Woman, Nomadland, and One Night in Miami, my three favorites of the year. And we may have, hopefully, three Director nominees who are women, which would be pretty damn cool. And in wrestling with this category, I orginally thought Lee Isaac Chung would be the odd-man out, but, and it kills me to say this, I think Emerald Fennell may be the one to not make the cut. I hope I'm wrong.
5-Speaking of Nomadland, I love the film is getting a lot of love, but one of the sick ironies is that for possibly the role of her career (next to Fargo), Frances McDormand doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of winning, though the film will probably do quite well with noms and wins. Her win for Three Billboards for #2 was premature. Hers and especially Carey Mulligan's are the performances of the year for me.
6-For awhile I thought Viola Davis would her second statue. Also ain't happening. I'll go to my grave saying she should have won for The Help.
7-I hope Regina King makes the Director's cut. For a film that could have taken the easy way out with the conceit, it's markedly unsentimental and even more moving as a result. Everybody loves King, bias aside I think she makes the cut. I just still not sure who doesn't from the five DGA nominees.
8-Mark Rylance could be the one nobody sees coming. Acting is stacked in The Trial of the Chicago 7, and I hope the film does well across the board (and I thought Sorkin may be the Directing fall guy, but the film is so seamless I think not). Someone suggested three Supporting Actor noms from the film (if you include Frank Langella). Not sure that will happen. Same to be said for Zendaya. She's hot at the moment, but nobody remembers Malcolm and Marie (that was on in the 70's, right?).
9-I will say if Jared Leto makes the cut I'll lose my shit. I wanted The Little Things to be good, and even Malik and Washington couldn't save it. John Lee Hancock is usually decent, but he wrote himself into a corner. Sorry, but Leto's finger mannerisms that would make Bill Nighy cringe ain't gonna cut it.
10-I hope The Mauritanian does well. I think Foster's in there at least, but don't be surprised if Tahar Rahim makes the cut.
11-Think Borat could pull a double for Sacha Baron Cohen? I sure as hell hope Maria Bakalova squeezes in!
Enough already. I'm wiped out, by the Covad (as my neighbor's 55-year-old son calls it), lockdown, not being able to barhop, chasing neighborhood bunnies, and dumbasses. As usual, I don't do the docs, shorts, foreign, or music this go-round, but my nomination totals do include music. I have to stop changing my picks, I got nothing else:
Best Picture
Nomadland
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Minari
Promising Young Woman
One Night in Miami
Mank
Sound of Metal
Judas and the Black. Messiah
---
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Best Director
Chloe Zhao
Aaron Sorkin
Lee Isaac Chung
Regina King
David Fincher
---
Emerald Fennell
Spike Lee
Shaka King
Best Actor
Chadwick Boseman
Riz Ahmed
Anthony Hopkins
Steve Yeun
Tahar Rahim
---
Delroy Lindo
Gary Oldman
Sacha Baron Cohen
Best Actress
Carey Mulligan
Viola Davis
Frances McDormand
Vanessa Kirby
Andra Day
---
Zendaya
Sophia Loren
Amy Adams
Best Supporting Actor
Daniel Kaluuya
Leslie Odom, Jr.
Sacha Baron Cohen
Paul Raci
Mark Rylance
---
Alan Kim
Frank Langella
Chadwick Boseman
Best Supporting Actress
Jodie Foster
Maria Bakalova
Glenn Close
Olivia Coleman
Yuh-Jung Youn
---
Amanda Seyfried
Ellen Burstyn
Helena Zengel
Best Original Screenplay
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Minari
Mank
Judas and the Black Messiah
---
Sound of Metal
Soul
Da 5 Bloods
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
The Father
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
---
The Mauritanian
News of the World
The White Tiger
Best Cinematography
Nomadland
Mank
News of the World
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Judas and the Black Messiah
---
Tenet
Cherry
Da 5 Bloods
Best Editing
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Nomadland
Sound of Metal
Promising Young Woman
One Night in Miami
---
Minari
Mank
The Father
Best Production Design
Mank
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
News of the World
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Tenet
---
Mulan
The Midnight Sky
Emma
Best Costume Design
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
Emma
News of the World
Promising Young Woman
---
Mulan
The Trial of the Chicago 7
One Night in Miami
Best Sound
Sound of Metal
Soul
News of the World
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Greyhound
---
Tenet
Mank
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Visual Effects
Tenet
The Midnight Sky
Mulan
Welcome to Chechyna
Mank
---
The One and Only Ivan
Birds of Prey
Soul
Best Makeup
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Hillbilly Elegy
Mank
Birds of Prey
Pinocchio
---
Emma
Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey
The Little Things
Nominations
The Trial of the Chicago 7 10
Mank 9
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom 8
Sound of Metal 7
Nomadland 7
Minari 6
One Night in Miami 6
Promising Young Woman 5
News of the World 5
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm 3
Them's my predix, and I'm sticking to them. The usual surprises and ommissions will happen, and in this pandemic year they could be rampant. The cruelty come 8:30am in the morning on top of the time change is not lost on me, and I blame that for any misfires here.
My work is done here til April 25th, yikes! Follow me on the socials for the usual bitchfest and kvetching.
Happy Oscar Nominations Day, y'all! And, of course, Shalom and Season's Screenings!
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