Technicolor Trumps All: The MS Maven's Fearless Oscar Predix 2017

"City of Stars" was good the first hundred times I heard it. But how many times will we hear it played come Oscar Sunday? Methinks La La Land will win nine times, barring an upset in Song or Sound  Mixing.

Yes, La La Land will win a shit ton of Oscars. Usually an indicator for how Best Picture will go is by seeing what film wins Editing, which I expect La La to do. Now, many are predicting the win in Sound Mixing, but if you see it also win Sound Editing? Game over.

But I'm not so sure a juggernaut will take place because I don't know if Academy members have just ticked off their ballots or that everyone that went ga ga for La La cooled a bit. A month ago there was a surge for Hidden Figures, a well-acted (Henson and Monae should have been up; I love you, Octavia, but still) crowd-pleaser that struck a chord, but then that film seemed to cool. As the ballots came due this past week, it seemed there was a lot of resurgent love for Moonlight, which pleases The Maven greatly. Will this translate into a Picture win? Probably not, but w/ the preferential ballot, who knows?

Moonlight will get some love for Ali (probably, but I'll get to that) and for Jenkins (Adapted Screenplay). But there's not much room to spread the wealth this year unless a backlash has kicked in against La La, and I don't think it has. And in this almost week-long nadir between the final ballots and the show is when you hear the crazy theories, talk of backlash, and, this year, trolls trying to politicize La La Land for not being representative, yada yada. This is called the boredom before the storm, so please stop.

But the ceremony will be political, and while I think/hope it will be fun show, I hope some folks are vocal and burn it down. Will shake up the ceremony a bit. I will only say this about the diversity issue that has kicked around the past couple of years: The non-white nominees this year are damned good overall, period, no matter the color. Last year, save for Idris Elba not making it for Supporting Actor, the films and performances just weren't there (and Will Smith in Concussion doesn't count, it was pedestrian and you know it, so don't @ me), while an abundance of good films and performances flooded the zone this year. And as I mentioned last year, this has more to do w/ Oscar politics and release schedules and not racial politics. And if it meant getting a crop of films and performances that will be remembered for years (Washington and Davis's performances in Fences are two of the best, up there w/ DeNiro in Raging Bull, Gena Rowlands in A Woman Under the Influcence, Robert Duvall in The Apostle, Elizabeth Taylor in Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?, etc, because something snapped loose in them, allowing them to embody culture and humanity in a new way, filmed play or no. If Davis doesn't win, I may wind up throwing a beer can like I did in 1992 when Marisa Tomei won for My Cousin Vinny. My then-roommate still hasn't recovered.

So, what's sad is w/ this decent crop of good films and performances, a few will be hosed, such as Hidden Figures, Arrival, Lion, and Hell or High Water. Look at it this way: Star Trek Beyond will have an Oscar for Visual Effects and these films won't. Call it the Kim Basinger Effect.

If there is one surprise that I will predict (and I have as an upset, no guts to call it outright), it is that Dev Patel may win for Lion. He's a terrific actor (even in Slumdog Millionaire, not my favorite film) who's quietly built a solid career, and many like him. And many folks like his film, as do I. Plus, he's hot, but that's for another discussion.But there's been a bit of rumbling about his performance, and I've also heard several folks voting for Viggo Mortensen, which is a bit curious considering the film had a good run early in the year, and he's not campaigned much. And I will also posit that Joe Walker may win Editing for Arrival, a film I cannot stand but is quite well edited. So I don't foresee a Brexit happening here.

So that's the end of my 77-minute analysis of how these awards may go, so enough already. Here are my predictions, with the upsets:

Best Picture: La La Land
Upset: Moonlight

Best Director: Damien Chazelle
Upset: Barry Jenkins

Best Actor: Denzel Washington
Upset: Casey Affleck

Best Actress: Emma Stone
Upset: Isabelle Huppert

Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali
Upset: Dev Patel

Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis
Upset: Michelle Williams

Best Original Screenplay: Manchester By the Sea
Upset: Hell or High Water

Best Adapted Screenplay: Moonlight
Upset: Hidden Figures

Best Animated Feature: Zootopia
Upset: Kubo and the Two Strings

Best Foreign-Language Film: The Salesman
Upset: Toni Erdmann

Best Original Score: La La Land
Upset: Moonlight

Best Original Song: "City of Stars"
Upset: "How Far I'll Go"

Best Cinematography: La La Land
Upset: Lion

Best Editing: La La Land
Upset: Arrival

Best Production Design: La La Land
Upset: Arrival

Best Costume Design: Jackie
Upset: La La Land

Best Sound Editing: Hacksaw Ridge
Upset: La La Land

Best Sound Mixing: La La Land
Upset: Arrival

Best Visual Effects: The Jungle Book
Upset: Kubo and the Two Strings

Best Makeup: Star Trek Beyond
Upset: A Man Called Ove

Best Documentary Feature: OJ: Made in America
Upset: I Am Not Your Negro

Best Documentary Short: Joe's Violin
Upset: The White Helmets

Best Animated Short: Piper
Upset: Pearl

Best Live-Action Short: Ennemis Interieurs
Upset: Timecode

Wins

La La Land                    9

Moonlight                      2

Fences                            2

Manchester By the Sea   1

Hacksaw Ridge              1

Running Time: 3 Hours 26 Minutes

Them's my prefix, and I'm sticking to them. As usual, I'll vent my annual rite of Oscar passage via Facebook and Twitter in all my Maven glory. Again, no Oscar pool, March Madness awaits. Here's hoping someone streaks, preferably Dev!

Happy Oscar Sunday, y'all! And. of course, shalom...

The Sounds of Campaign Silence, aka The MS Maven Oscar Nomination Predix Extravaganza 2016

The Maven is still basking in the afterglow of Clemson finally winning the National Championship (after all these years, I finally get the last laugh), as well as recovering from this past year's very exhausting election cycle. And I took a large chunk of of that recovery time to see most of the presumed major nominees in multiple categories.

But the same cannot be said about this year's Oscar season. I have not seen as many actors or filmmakers whoring themselves out for the Golden One as I have in the past few years. Sure, Casey Affleck, Emma Stone, Viola Davis (she's doing double duty for Fences and HTGAWM), and a few more have made the rounds on the talk-show circuit, but the fever pitch that usually begins in November has been pretty muted. Just coming out of the nasty presidential election, no matter your preference, I'm sure played a large role; the notion of campaigning for anything at the moment has caused flashbacks so bad that Academy members who voted for Slumdog Millionaire for Best Picture are weeping. And I think the campaign hangover also contributed to a few films peaking too soon in the process.

There's not much to say this go-round because, save for a few scant nominees to complete the categories, the Academy will be gaga for La La Land, the bittersweet, feel-good infectious confection that is an antidote for the current cultural climate; it's Mister Toad's Wild Ride in Technicolor. Will it break the record for noms? No, because no Supporting players are available to kick it over the top. But it will be close.

The rest of the pack will be fine. And this is a year where maybe the reward for some of the better films will be in the noms and not the wins if La La in fact makes like Titanic, unless it hits the iceberg in wins.

Here are a few last-minute thoughts before tomorrow morning's new and improved nominations reveal:

1--Nominations announced on a Tuesday? What fresh hell is this? This has made The Maven scramble to pull together her list with no time to check it twice. Well, the day/time change as well as still being in la la land with the Clemson win.

2--I mentioned some films peaking too early. And I'm thinking of Loving, a good film that I think was released too early and fizzled fast, Fences has a bit, and I'm surprised Arrival, which looks like a mashup of Contact and Inception (a film I despise), is still being boosted in some of the major categories; I love me some Amy Adams, but she phoned in this performance (Louise phone home?).

3--That said, some films have picked up momentum, primarily Moonlight, which has had a slow-burn of good publicity since it's initial release. This pleases me enormously. The love for this film, a uniquely structured and well acted film about transformation and love, proves my point last year about the Oscars So White controversy, in that a solid film will be honored despite color or race. Same could be said of Hidden Figures, a feel-good crowd pleaser with excellent performances and good, period (not to sound like Sean Spicer).

4--Hidden Figures has been the hot movie while the Oscar ballots were out. The film is uniformly well-acted (hell, even Kevin Costner is good) and Octavia Spencer has been on most the nom prefix lists, but, A) The film belongs to Taraji P. Henson, so don't be surprised if she gets one of the two final slots for Actress (what with Emma Stone, Natalie Portman, and Isabelle Huppert being pretty much locks). And don't surprised if Janelle Monae makes it into Supporting. I don't think all three will be snubbed.

5--Could Aaron Taylor-Johnson and Michael Shannon both make the cut for Nocturnal Animals, a love it or leave it film for many, though I think it's underrated (I'm looking at you, Mark Charney)? I think Taylor-Johnson is in, for I'm not convinced Hugh Grant will not make it here, despite the SAG nod.

6--I am not in the camp that thinks Deadpool will make the Best Picture cut. There are enough decent films to fill out the category, and I think there will be eight, which seems to be the magic number these past few years with preferential balloting.

7--Silence will get some last-minute love for Martin Scorsese for Director. Who will be left out? Possibly Kenneth Lonergan because in my eyes the directing of Manchester By the Sea is it's weakest element. Also could be Denis Villeneuve, but I've already shown my anti-Arrival bias.

8--Lion is the one film of the lot I've not seen, and I'm not sure what to make of it. I think it's in for BP, but beyond that I'm iffy. Hidden Figures may be the feel-good film for the category.

9--I would love to see Don Cheadle up for Miles Ahead. Won't happen. Talk about a film peaking early!

10--The only certain thing I can say ahead of the Big Show is that Viola Davis will finally win a goddamned Oscar. Everything else is conjecture.

11--And finally, as certain as it will be cold as moose balls until March, I ask the annual burning question: When will Cinematographer Roger Deakins win an Oscar, goddamned or otherwise? He could be up for Hail, Caeser! but he won't win (I see you, Craig Kennedy!). Goddamn it.

Enough already. As usual I don't do the the music, docs, or shorts, but my nomination totals will account for music (La La, duh), but here are The Maven's predix, with three alternates, save for Picture and Makeup, for each category:

Best Picture
La La Land
Moonlight
Manchester By the Sea
Hidden Figures
Lion
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Arrival
---
Hell or High Water
Silence

Best Director
Damien Chazelle
Barry Jenkins
Martin Scorsese
Denzel Washington
Denis Villeneuve
---
Kenneth Lonergan
Garth Davis
David Mackenzie

Best Actor
Casey Affleck
Denzel Washington
Ryan Gosling
Andrew Garfield
Viggo Mortensen
---
Tom Hanks
Joel Edgerton
Michael Keaton

Best Actress
Emma Stone
Natalie Portman
Issabelle Huppert
Taraji P. Henson
Annette Bening
---
Meryl Streep
Amy Adams
Ruth Negga

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali
Jeff Bridges
Lucas Hedges
Dev Patel
Aaron Taylor-Johnson
---
Michael Shannon
Hugh Grant
Mykelti Williamson

Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis
Michelle Williams
Naomi Harris
Nicole Kidman
Janelle Monae
---
Octavia Spenser
Gretta Gerwig
Aji Naomi King

Best Original Screenplay
Manchester By the Sea
La La Land
Hell or High Water
The Lobster
20th Century Women
---
Captain Fantastic
Zootopia
Jackie

Best Adapted Screenplay
Moonlight
Fences
Lion
Hidden Figures
Nocturnal Animals
---
Deadpool
Loving
Silence

Best Cinematography
La La Land
Moonlight
Arrival
Silence
Hail, Caeser!
---
Lion
Hacksaw Ridge
Jackie

Best Editing
La La Land
Moonlight
Hacksaw Ridge
Arrival
Silence
---
Manchester By the Sea
Jackie
Deepwater Horizon

Best Production Design
La La Land
Jackie
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caeser!
Arrival
---
Rogue One
Silence
Rules Don't Apply

Best Costume Design
La La Land
Jackie
Florence Foster Jenkins
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
---
Love and Friendship
Silence
Hidden Figures

Best Sound Editing
La La Land
Hacksaw Ridge
Rogue One
Arrival
Sully
---
Deepwater Horizon
Silence
The Jungle Book

Best Sound Mixing
La La Land
Hacksaw Ridge
Rogue One
Arrival
Deadpool
---
Silence
The Jungle Book
Sully

Best Visual Effects
The Jungle Book
Doctor Strange
Rogue One
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
---
Passengers
Deepwater Horizon

Best Makeup
Florence Foster Jenkins
Deadpool
Hail, Caeser!
---
A Man Called Ove

Nominations

La La Land                     13

Moonlight                         7

Manchester By the Sea     6

Fences                              5

Hidden Figures                 5

Arrival                              7

Lion                                  5

Hell or High Water           4

Hacksaw Ridge                5 

Jackie                               4

Note: The totals don't line up with my category predix per se.

Them's my Fearless Predix, and The Maven is sticking to them. I have a feeling there will be a major omission or inclusion that many of us Oscar prognosticators are missing. And, like w/ the presidential election hangover, we may vary well be gobsmacked come 8:18am in the morning (a time change, really?) and not see it coming. 

The Maven's work is done here for another year. Happy Oscar Nomination Day, y'all! And, of course, shalom!