Until now.
Just in the past week the pontificating has reached a fever pitch (and I'm not talking about the bad Ryan O'Neal film from 1985), and the nominations debate in some categories resemble a Chinese fire drill. This is due partially (as usual) to politics but more so timing of voting/noms from the various guilds. Until recent years, the awards season was paced out between the guilds and respective awards being handed out, where Academy members could see patterns to ride the bandwagon or for the studio that employed them. But now, the Golden Globes are a non-factor (they usually are anyway, what w/ possibly the lowest membership of voters), and the WGA, PGA, Bafta, and just yesterday the DGA revealing their noms, the latter after Oscar ballots were due last Friday.
So, this has caused a mad scramble of figuring out the nominees for a few major categories that, frankly to me a few weeks ago, seemed pretty much set and w/ two locks (Actress and Supporting Actress) for wins before the noms are announced. But the last-minute revelations, especially from the DGA, has blown things open all of a sudden. And The Maven thrives on surprises.
Here are the basics before my predix:
1-Julianne Moore is a lock for Actress. I've seen Still Alice, and the final shot is subtle and heartbreaking. Plus, it's her time. (And I'm still puzzled as to why she wasn't up for Supporting Actress for Magnolia, but that's an argument for a different time).
2--Patricia Arquette is a lock for Supporting Actress, I think. I say this because this category is one of the scrambled culprits, from having five that I thought were consistent for the past months (Arquette, Stone, Knightly, Streep, Dern) to now having a lot of possibilities. Did folks see A Most Violent Year to put Chastain in (seeing this later tonight, after finalizing my predix)? Rene Russo if there is a surge for Nightcrawler? And what to do w/ Tilda Swinton and Snowpiercer?. My wild card for this category is Carrie Coon in Gone Girl, but I don't have the guts to pick her in the fifth slot. I do think Streep may be out, though, per not heard much love for Into the Woods, save for Production and Costume Design.
3--So, what do the voting members do w/ Nightcrawler, Gone Girl, and Whiplash? Let's break this down:
Nightcrawler: Several folks have it up for several Oscars, which may happen, but I'm not feeling it at the moment. Could have Original Screenplay for Gilroy but even there would it unseat Selma, a film that had momentum but lost steam due to historical controversies and the lack of/late DVD screeners. Gyllenhall for Actor may be the fifth nominee but I have it going to Cooper in American Sniper, also a film late in the game but many like it and Eastwood.
Gone Girl: The Academy likes Fincher, though still Oscarless, but this is an odd movie for folks to digest. Love Moore, counting the days until she wins Actress, but my performance of the year is Rosamund Pike, but she's lucky to get the nomination w/ the way the film seems to be trending downward (will she be the big omission?).
Whiplash: Many folks know I'm a jazz nut w/ a huge collection, but I checked my jazz chops at the door when seeing this film. I like it, Simmons is great (and lock #3), but it's a bit overrated. The screenplay, decent but a bit thin for me, is a question mark because the WGA nominated it for Original Screenplay, but the Academy shifted it to Adapted Screenplay, so I'm not sure if this will hurt it for a screenplay nom or not. Thus, if there's a surge, Chazelle for Director? I still think it's a stretch.
4--Actor's presumably fifth spot is wide open, what w/ Redmayne, Keaton, Cumberbatch, and Oylelowo (though he could very well be Selma's lone nominee or left out altogether) likely. Many have Gyllenhall in that last spot, and I would be cool w/ that, but I hope/think it will be Bradley Cooper. American Sniper is solid, one of Eastwood's best films (which surprised me, actually, and I'm a big Clint The Filmmaker fan). I would be thrilled, though, if Ralph Fiennes, or even Eller Coltrane get that spot (why has the latter never been mentioned in all the Boyhood surge? I've found this really curious, but I'm in the minority apparently).
5--The DGA noms yesterday has caused everyone to renegotiate the five nominees for Director. Linklater, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, and Anderson (finally, happily!) are locks, w/ the latter two spots too wide open. Do Academy members go chalk and put in Morten Tyldum for the Imitation Game? Could the voters actually go for Duverney after all, for someone who started out hot and really pushing the film to now wondering what noms Selma will get? Will they throw Jolie a bone? I have Fincher (am I reaching here?) and Eastwood (the Academy really, really likes him) in the last two slots.
6--Reese Witherspoon has been on every show it seems, save for the Price is Right, promoting Wild. She hasn't a chance in hell to win, she was terrific in a very small role in Inherent Vice, and remember, if Gone Girl is up for Picture, she's one of the producers.
7--The Maven will be thrilled for anything for Boyhood, Grand Budapest, Birdman, American Sniper, and Inherent Vice (maybe Adapted Screenplay, but it opened late and a lot of folks I'm sure left the theater or shut off the DVD scratching their collective heads). And I'll squeal w/ glee if Carrie Coon's name is called.
8--Grand Budapest gained some momentum, but it's been on video for a bit and is now playing on HBO, which helps. I originally thought it would only be up for Original Screenplay, Production Design, and Makeup, but I think it'll get a few more than that now. I'll scream bloody murder if Anderson does not make the Director cut and scream w/ delight if he does.
9--Aniston safe in slot #5 for Actress? Gut says not, but I'm sticking w/ her.
10--Adapted Screenplay is a mess and after changing it several times (the most of any category for me, oddly enough per it's usually an acting category). But it is what it is at this point.
11--Naomi Watts is up for the SAG for St Vincent, but could she be carried along and be up in a Birdman sweep? Think she may split her own vote here (would like to see her up for Birdman, though). And could Streep be left out?
Picks below the line in each category are alternates. I stopped doing the specialty and music categories per the rules seem to change on a dime.
Enough w/ the preamble, on with The Maven's picks:
Best Picture
Boyhood
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Selma
The Imitation Game
Gone Girl
The Theory of Everything
American Sniper
---
Whiplash
Foxcatcher
Nightcrawler
Best Director
Richard Linklater
Wes Anderson
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu
David Fincher
Clint Eastwood
---
Ava DuVernay
Angelina Jolie
Morten Tyldum
Best Actor
Michael Keaton
Eddie Redmayne
Benedict Cumberbatch
David Oyelowo
Bradley Cooper
---
Steve Carrell
Jake Gyllenhall
Ralph Fiennes
Best Actress
Julianne Moore
Reese Witherspoon
Rosamund Pike
Felicity Jones
Jennifer Aniston
---
Amy Adams
Emily Blunt
Marion Cotilliard
Best Supporting Actor
J K Simmons
Ethan Hawke
Edward Norton
Robert Duvall
Mark Ruffalo
---
Tom Wilkinson
Albert Brooks
Josh Brolin
Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette
Emma Stone
Keira Knightly
Laura Dern
Meryl Streep
---
Carrie Coon
Jessica Chastain
Tilda Swinton
Best Original Screenplay
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Birdman
Boyhood
Nightcrawler
Foxcatcher
---
Selma
Mr. Turner
A Most Violent Year
Best Adapted Screenplay
Gone Girl
American Sniper
The Imitation Game
Wild
Inherent Vice
---
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
Unbroken
Best Cinematography
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Unbroken
Mr. Turner
Gone Girl
---
Interstellar
Nightcrawler
Wild
Best Editing
Boyhood
Birdman
American Sniper
The Imitation Game
Whiplash
---
Interstellar
Gone Girl
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Production Design
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Into the Woods
Interstellar
Mr. Turner
Birdman
---
The Imitation Game
Maleficent
Unbroken
Best Costume Design
Into the Woods
Maleficent
Mr. Turner
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Inherent Vice
---
The Imitation Game
Big Eyes
Birdman
Best Sound Editing
Interstellar
Guardians of the Galaxy
Whiplash
Fury
American Sniper
---
Unbroken
The Hobbit
Into the Woods
Best Sound Mixing
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Unbroken
Fury
Guardians of the Galaxy
---
Birdman
American Sniper
Whiplash
Best Visual Effects
Interstellar
Guardians of the Galaxy
Godzilla
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
The Hobbit
---
Maleficent
Best Makeup
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Foxcatcher
Maleficent
---
Guardians of the Galaxy
Nominations
Birdman 9
Boyhood 7
The Grand Budapest Hotel 6
The Imitation Game 5
American Sniper 5
Gone Girl 5
Selma 5
Whiplash 4
Foxcatcher 3
Into the Woods 3
Guardians of the Galaxy 3
The Theory of Everything 3
As Walt Whitman says, "All goes onward and upward...and nothing collapses..." But try telling that to most of Hollywood for the next six weeks...
The Maven's work is done here. Hearing all the categories at 8:37 (we won't see the lesser categories that are announced just before) is going to be weird, but I can dig it. '
Happy Oscar, y'all! Let the highjinks and arguments begin!
