Backsliding and Atoning: The Maven's Fearless, Finally, (and Probably Foolish) Oscar Predix Extravaganza
A couple of weeks ago, our world was turned upside down, with a sudden burst of firepower with no direction. No, not the "war" in Iran, the Oscar race!
Sinners winning Ensemble at the SAG Awards (not ready for the name change yet) was not a surprise, but Michael B. Jordan winning was. Pundits yap all the time about shifts in races while the ballots are still out, and the ballots were still out when this occurred. And I don't think is a fluke. Jordan's been around for what seems like forever and winning the SAG Award for Actor has upended the race a bit.
Leonardo DiCaprio was the front runner for One Battle After Another for a while, and Timothy Chalamet shot off his mouth, got a bit entitled, and killed his chances w/ Marty Supreme. Wagner Moura has some recent buzz for The Secret Agent as of late, but methinks to no avail. Leo could still win, but Jordon seemed to surge right before the ballots were due. He deserves it.
Let me also say at this juncture that his best performance to me still is in Fruitvale Station, the first Jordan/Ryan Coogler one-two punch of several films. It's a highly underrated film folks should see; the last scene is a sucker-punch.
And, to that point, Coogler will finally win an Oscar as well, but for Original Screenplay. That is unless Sinners, an extraordinary-acted popcorn movie, falls into the old trap of, what with all Academy members choosing who wins on the final ballot, ticking off most of the categories for usually-epic and usually studio films to sweep the Awards. But those days are largely gone since the 90's, what with how now it's become an argument for films made outside the system, so stop decrying the studios this and that. Make better movies.
Now, I've buried the lead. Yes, Paul Thomas Anderson is going to win a goddamned Oscar or two, finally! It's ironic that a child who grew up in the industry has taken this long to get here. One Battle After Another is a bit of a studio-ish film but not really, which has been the case w/ most PTA films. I don't think Hollywood has know what to do with him, but it's his time. Is the film the masterpiece everyone has claimed? No. I love the movie, it's among his best, but because a film comes along at "the right time" and everyone piles on doesn't always translate to winning; hence, it's his time. I still say Boogie Nights and Magnolia are his one-two punch. But PTA and Coogler will both be winners, and that pleases me to no end.
And AMPAS/Warner Brothers screwed the Chase Infiniti pooch by running her for Actress instead of Supporting. Would she win in the lower category? Maybe?
Teyana Taylor has reaped the benefits of awards season instead, deservedly; the image of being pregnant out-to-her with the machine gun is worth it alone! Amy Madigan, whom I've always loved and has been around the block a time or two, is a hoot in Weapons, and it's one of the definitions of a supporting performance. I really want Taylor and Madigan both to win, but that ain't happening. Advantage, Madigan.
The one lock of the night is Jessie Buckley in Hamnet, a film I expected to enjoy but I didn't expect to be moved, and she did so; I won't forget her "cry" anytime soon. She's another actor who's been around forever it seems, first becoming aware through the Bridget Jones movies. If anyone wins beside her, I'll eat an egg (IYKYK)!
Finally to Supporting Actor. Consensus is that Sean Penn is still on-track to win his third Oscar, deservedly. He's also a hoot, and amid the current cultural/political climate, he seems a shoe-in, as they used to say.
But this is the most volatile of the four acting categories. You have Stellan Skargard who is a sentimental favorite in Sentimental Value, and, if there is, in fact, vote-splitting (which has been dormant for quite some time), he could make out. Penn's main competition is Delroy Lindo may be swept up in the Sinners fervor and has also been around forever. He's terrific, as usual. I don't want to say this is his only chance, but it may very well be. Regardless, there's not a bad performance in the category, but I do prefer Penn to Lindo, no shade on the latter at all, but more for how Penn's character fits into OBAA's story.
Just a handful of observation:
1--How in the hell is Paul Mescal not up for Actor in Hamnet? I'll wait.
2--I'm still torn on how many Oscars Sinners and OBAA will win. I don't think it'll be a juggernaut for Sinners but will be several, but OBAA will be fewer.
3--Yes, still pissed about the category snafu regarding Infiniti.
4--Will Diane Warren finally win a competitive Oscar? Nope, blame KPop for that.
5--I wonder how much longer the In Memorium tributes will last, considering what the producers are signaling and especially w/ the major deaths we had? Mavens don't cry but I may wind up a blubbering idiot with Duvall, Keaton, and Reiner.
6--I'm glad, but why less musical numbers for Song? They bog down the show.
Last-minute gut-check:
1--Skarsgård for Sentimental Value.
2--Wunmi Mosaku if she's swept up in a Sinners wave.
3--OBAA for Picture.
Enough already. Let's finally get piggy with it (minus the slap):
upset: One Battle After Another
upset: Ryan Coogler
upset: Leonardo DiCaprio
upset: Kate Hudson
upset: Delroy Lindo
upset: Teyana Taylor
upset: Sentimental Value
upset: Hamnet
upset: Elio
upset: The Secret Agent
upset: One Battle After Another
upset: "I Lied to You"--Sinners
upset: Sinners
upset: Sinners
upset: Sinners
upset: Sinners
upset: Sinners
upset: Sinners
upset: Sinners
upset: The Alabama Solution
upset: Armed Only with a Camera
upset: The Singers