Locked and Loaded: The Maven's Fearless (and Most Definitely Foolish) Oscar Predix 2020

Let me start by saying I've loved this Oscar season. I can't remember the last time that the entire crop of nominees were solid overall. No Slumdogs, No King's Speeches, (I still love you, Colin), no Artists, no clunkers. Some films are better than others, and some will be remembered 20 years from now (Parasite, Once Upon a Time...In Hollywood, Pitt's and Zellweger's performances). The nominees across the strata of categories this season has been one big happy family, and it's pretty damn cool, especially in the current climate. 

But as I previously mentioned, I like the shortened season.Yes, #FilmTwitter played the usual "what if" games and dug too deep into the minutiae, but what if we had another month? I would lose my mind even more so than I am now. But on Oscar Eve, even the best pundits out there (I see you, Sasha Stone and Brian Perry) are second-guessing their picks. That gets your attention! Part of this is the weird nadir between when the ballots are due and the ceremony itself, where there's mostly silence until the night before. But this go-round it's because many of the categories are an embarrassment of riches filmwise, and it's hard to figure out any patterns of how people voted. Trying to figure this out is like trying to develop a vaccine for the Coronavirus. 

I love the blind ballots, when during the nadir Academy members spill the beans on what they love, how they voted, and especially what they don't like. To that point, votes in various categories are somewhat consistent, but many are very scattered. I know some Academy members here, and they fall into this as well. But we cannot go by this. Funny how we forget that the members don't meet as a group to vote. If you polled "FilmTwitter and put out all the blind ballots you wanted, it still won't tell you anything. In 2016, folks went nuts w/ the polling, and look at what we wound up with in the White House. 

I think this will definitely be a year of spreading the wealth, where most of the films will win something. The one film that will be hosed is The Irishman. I've studied Scorsese's work for almost 40 years, and this is far from his best effort. I do think a lot of folks checked out due to the length, this, despite being on Netflix. And I love me some Thelma Schoonmaker, but even she couldn't handle this one. I like the film, but it needed to be tightened up. Now watch her win for Editing. 

So here is the twisted irony of this year's crop: the four acting categories are complete locks (and whoever said Dern is the biggest lock of the four is a bit amiss; if there is an upset w/ any of the four, it's Supporting Actress, possibly Johansson), but all the other categories are up for grabs, even down to Documentary Feature. It and Song are bloodbaths, and the pundits have made me scramble to see if I want to change my picks. I going to stay stat, because I don't get the feeling there will be a great wave in the technical categories. 

However, if Parasite wins Production Design (that house, man!) and especially Editing, as my dad used to say, Katie bar the door. I have heard too many members fawning over the film, especially the actor's branch, and I don't know if I buy that a lot of members didn't watch it because of subtitles. You have to admit, this year is a bit of a wild card because of the new Academy members. Plus, some members didn't vote in all categories. 

And to this point, I want to say that I don't understand why folks keep picking on Renee Zellweger. If it's not her accent, it's something else. I kept up w/ the production of Judy from the beginning, and I figured she would be good. But keep in mind that what's making for a complete sweep and probably the Oscar tomorrow for Zellweger are the scenes toward the end of the film that have not been show outside of it, not unlike the whipping scene that nabbed the Oscar for Lupita Nyong'o. But something snapped loose in her, like it did for Robert Duvall in The Apostle, Daniel Day-Lewis in There Will Be Blood, and Gena Rowlands in A Woman Under the Influence. She's always been terrific even in shitty films (a mark of a great actor, look at Rod Steiger, for Christ's sake), she's quirky as hell and embraces it, and rolls with the flow. This makes for great acting, and she's flat-out fucking brilliant here. She's had the time of her life and has been living out loud this awards season, and she deserves all of this. 

Same goes for Brad Pitt, sans the quirkiness. His is also a performance for the ages. He reminds me so much of early-70's Robert Redford. I feel like he could have just walked onto the set of Jeremiah Johnson and nailed it. He's the cat's ass. 

But what to do w/ Parasite and 1917? I want Bong Joon Ho to win Director. I actually want him and the film to win as many as possible, (a massive #BongHit, right, Matt Neglia?),  but I think Picture and Director split, w/ Sam Mendes winning Director. If this were flipped, I would be cool w/ that, too. These two films will probably win the most trophies, but it won't be a high tally. I'm thinking Parasite and 1917 will both win four. But Bong has been a blast, and he and Taika Waititi have been the Laurel and Hardy of the awards season. Their films are both taking home the Screenplay Oscars. 

Y'all realize that Quentin Tarantino may go home empty-handed for possibly his best film (next to Jackie Brown and Pulp Fiction)? Hate this! And Margot Robbie should have been up for this, not Bombshell.

And now that Roger Deakins is going to win his second Oscar, after decades of not winning anything: When are Wes Anderson (he has a new film in 2020) and Diane Warren going to win a goddamned Oscar? 

And, for the record, the wrong person won the Oscar for Walk the Line. That was Joaquin Phoenix's film. But he'll win here to make up for it. And it may only be one of two Oscars Joker wins.

I got nothing else. About three high-gravity beers in so as to stop second-guessing my picks, here's how I think the awards will go:

Picture: Parasite
upset: 1917

Director: Sam Mendes
upset: Bong Joon Ho

Actor: Joaquin Phoenix
upset: Adam Driver

Actress: Renee Zellweger
upset: Charlize Theron

Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt
upset: Joe Pesci

Supporting Actress: Laura Dern
upset: Scarlett Johansson

Original Screenplay: Parasite
upset: Once Upon a Time...In Hollywood

Adapted Screenplay: Jojo Rabbit
upset: Little Women

Foreign-Language Film: Parasite
upset: Pain and Glory

Animated Feature: Toy Story 4
upset: Klaus

Original Song: "Stand Up"
upset: "I'm Gonna Love Me Again"

Score: Joker
upset: Marriage Story

Cinematography: 1917
upset: Once Upon a Time...In Hollywood

Editing: Parasite
upset: Ford vs. Ferrari

Production Design: Once Upon a Time...In Hollywood
upset: Parasite (that house!)

Costume Design: Little Women
upset: Once Upon a Time...In Hollywood

Sound Editing: Ford vs. Ferrari
upset: 1917

Sound Mixing: 1917
upset: Ford vs. Ferrari

Visual Effects: 1917
upset: Avengers: Endgame

Makeup: Judy
upset: Bombshell

Documentary Feature: American Factory
upset: For Sama

Documentary Short: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone
upset: St Louis Superman

Animated Short: Hair Love
upset: Kitbull

Live-Action Short: Brotherhood
upset: Saria 

Wins

1917           5

Parasite.     4

Once Upon a Time    3

Joker          2

Judy           2

Ford vs. Ferrari 2

Marriage Story 1

Little Women    1

Jojo Rabbit       1

Running Time: 3 Hours 44 Minutes

As usual, the Wins totals are separate from the other predictions. 

That's it. Them's my predix, and (I think) I'm sticking to them. Per usual, The Maven will be venting the annual rite of passage on the socials (Facebook and @Franster23 on Twitter), so follow along for the ride or mute me until Tuesday. Let me know your thoughts. Again, no Oscar pool this year, so blame Trump.

I hope the show is as much of a blast as this season has been! 

Happy Oscar Sunday, y'all. And, of course, Shalom!

I Like Mine Scrambled! The Maven's Fearless (and Probably Foolish) Oscar Nomination Predix 2020

For decades I complained about the long Oscar slog of a season, that if the films are for the calendar year, then the Awards should be in February at the latest. Remember going back to the 80's when the Awards would be in the middle of April? 

Well, I finally got my wish in spades. The entire awards-season schedule has been upended by the Olympics, to the point that all the voting for the various guilds are overlapping in weird ways. The Globes are two days before Oscar ballots are due, then the DGA and SAG are piled on top of each other. I wanted a shorten season, but not this short. 

While #FilmTwitter and pundits have obsessed for months (longer than this season, I might add) about what actor may get that fifth slot or what picture can be nominated without an actor being up (and I'm guilty of this as well, just not before October), the timetable is the one element that I've not heard anyone consider at great length. And I do think this will play a role in tomorrow nominations, be it for who surprises by being in or being out. There's not been much time to digest all the noms across the board and to try to squeeze in late releases; I've watch more films the past two weeks than I have in the past six months. (And by the way, Sasha Stone is usually the wisest sage w/ these things, so when she writes, you better bloody listen). 

And this year's crop across the board is pretty solid. I don't feel any nominees will be for career awards (Laura Dern comes close, but she's equally terrific in Marriage Story and Little Women), and the voters I know say they've enjoyed the bulk of the films. 

I'm not sure I have much to add to the conversation until we see the noms tomorrow. Plus, I'm just as preoccupied with the Clemson/LSU game tomorrow night. The Maven's two High Holy Days merging into a single day? Madness! But I do have a few observations:

1--I'll be rooting for all things Once Upon a Time...In Hollywood, Parasite, Dolemite is My Name, 1917, and Judy (not a great movie, but then, to bust up the ongoing argument about biopics, the movie is the performance, so if it fails, the movie follows suit. But Zellweger is the cat's ass and has appeared everywhere except the opening of a new mall in Santa Monica). 

2--I still don't know what the Academy is going to do w/ Richard Jewell and Little Women. The screenplay for Jewell has more holes than St. Charles in New Orleans, but Paul Walker Hauser's performance is the most underrated this season (Kathy Bates is cool, but it's not her movie), and he could very well surprise, and I hope so. In the case of Little Women, I think folks are still bursting at the seams to honor Greta Gerwig in some way, but I'm not sure this is the film to serve that purpose. I like the film, but it ain't Lady Bird (not entirely a fair comparison, but life's not fair). So does this mean Saoirse Ronan gets hosed in the fallout? Florence Pugh has been hot of late at the right time, so she, I think, gets that fifth supporting slot over Bates. 

3--And to that end, what to do with Marriage Story. I dig this film, but it's Driver's film, and though I really would like to see him take Actor, it's Joaquin Phoenix's to lose. I still think The Squid and The Whale is better, and I do see this as an offshoot of that film. But I think the one nomination that nobody may see coming would be Alan Alda. He's every bit as good as the other principle players. 

4--But, like Marriage Story, The Irishman started out white-hot during the season and now it's waning a bit. Again, I like the film, it could have been tightened a bit, but it's not Scorsese's best. It'll get a lot of noms, but I think DeNiro misses. And I've not considered if there will be any backlash due to Marty's Marvel comments. Doubt it. 

5--Speaking of backlash, I also wonder if the Netflix Effect will kick in, or if this will be the year that Hollywood begins to accept the paradigm shift of how we watch movies now. The lack of access to better films is an endless argument, and movies are better on a big screen, at least when someone isn't behind you snorting popcorn, so why not Netflix? And for the record, Marty wasn't wrong in his stance about the Marvel films sucking the air out of theatrical distribution (don't @ me, you know I'm right). 

6--I said for years if Quentin Tarantino ever grew up that he would make a great movie, and he did with Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood. I've always like QT (and I still say Jackie Brown is, with this and Pulp Fiction, his best film) but I wouldn't wish Hateful Eight on my worst enemy. This is not unlike when Roman Polanski made The Ninth Gate, when I said he shouldn't make another movie, but then makes The Pianist. 

7--I'm sure we'll hear more about the diversity issue. This year was an embarrassment of riches, so if women and minorities don't get a lot of nominations, I don't think it's due to this issue. It's just a crowded year. And the BAFTA's opening an investigation into voting? Bitch, please! I don't think the Russians had anything to do with this! Seriously, there's a paradigm shift here as well, it's just a bit more gradual. And it has nothing to do with voting, it has to do with providing more opportunities to produce more diverse works.

8--Y'all realize that Roger Deakins will go from not winning an Oscar for decades, and now he'll make quick work of the Academy and win a second one for 1917, a very late entry into the race. The film will do quite well, and it should. It's stunning. 

9--You also realize that Cynthia Erivo will still be nominated if she misses for Actress, for Song. 

10--Parasite is my favorite film of the year (along with Hollywood), and it will do well across the board. Will it win Picture? I don't know, too early. Director? I'm thinking so. It better be up for Production Design, because that house is as important to the film as the actors. That house is an actor!

11--I do think the nominees for Director will be stat from the DGA. I agree with Brian Perry/@RoadToOscar that Gerwig will miss here and may win Adapted Screenplay, I don't think Noah Baumbach makes it, and Todd Phillips is the wild card, despite Joker probably getting several other nominations. 

12--Finally, Joker, the most divisive film on the slate. This one has caused a lot of ink to be spilled and split folks down the middle. There are shots in this film (along with the wide shot of the family walking through the city during the flood in Parasite) that are gorgeous and made me shift away from television back to movies. I think the ending is a cheap shot, though, but that doesn't take away from Joaquin Phoenix's performance. I still think the wrong actor won for Walk the Line, and he probably should have won (along with the late Philip Seymour Hoffman) for The Master, but this will make up for that. 

Enough already. As usual, I don't do the music, docs, shorts, foreign, or animated this round, and my nomination totals will account for the music. Thus, here are my prefix, with three alternates, save for Picture, Visual Effects, and Makeup, for each category. Here's where I think things are headed come 8:18 in the morning (and why the weird time, for fuck's sake?): 

Best Picture
The Irishman
1917
Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Parasite
Joker
Jojo Rabbit
Marriage Story
Little Women
Ford vs. Ferrari
---
Knives Out

Best Director
Quentin Tarantino
Bong Joon Ho
Sam Mendes
Martin Scorsese
Taika Waititi
---
Pedro Almodovar
Greta Gerwig
Todd Phillips

Best Actor
Joaquin Phoenix
Adam Driver
Leonardo DiCaprio
Taron Egerton
Eddie Murphy
---
Paul Walker Hauser
Antonio Banderas
Christian Bale

Best Actress
Renee Zellweger
Charlize Theron
Scarlett Johansson
Cyntha Erivo
Saoirse Ronan
---
Awkwafina
Lupita Nyong'o
Alfre Woodard

Best Supporting Actor
Brad Pitt
Al Pacino
Tom Hanks
Joe Pesci
Song Sang Ho
---
Alan Alda
Anthony Hopkins
Jamie Foxx

Best Supporting Actress
Laura Dern
Jennifer Lopez
Margo Robbie
Scarlett Johansson 
Florence Pugh
---
Kathy Bates
Zhao Shuzhen
Annette Bening

Best Original Screenplay
Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Marriage Story
Parasite
Booksmart
Dolemite is My Name
---
Pain and Glory
The Farewell
Knives Out

Best Adapted Screenplay
Little Women
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
The Two Popes
---
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Richard Jewell
Just Mercy

Best Cinematography
1917
Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Joker
The Irishman
Ford vs. Ferrari
---
Parasite
The Lighthouse
Little Women

Best Editing
The Irishman
Parasite
Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Ford vs. Ferrari
Joker
---
Marriage Story
1917
Jojo Rabbit

Best Production Design
Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Parasite
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
1917
---
Little Women
Joker
Ford vs. Ferrari

Best Costume Design
Little Women
Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Rocketman
Dolemite is My Name
Judy
---
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Downton Abbey

Best Sound Editing
1917
Ford vs. Ferrari
Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Rocketman
---
Joker
Ad Astra
Avengers: End Game

Best Sound Mixing
1917
Ford vs. Ferrari
Rocketman
Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood 
Ad Astra
---
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Avengers: End Game
Joker

Best Visual Effects
Avengers: End Game
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
The Lion King
The Irishman
1917
---
Atila: Battle Angel

Best Makeup
Bombshell
Joker
Judy
Rocketman
Dolemite is My Name
---
Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood

Nominations

Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood     11

The Irishman                                     10

Joker                                                  9

1917                                                   8

Marriage Story                                   7

Parasite                                             7

Ford vs. Ferrari                                  6

Little Women                                      6

Jojo Rabbit                                         6

Them's my predix, and I'm sticking to them. There will be surprises and omissions, how many I know not. The Maven has a busy day ahead, so she'll need a jolt along w/ the coffee. 

My work is done here until February 9th (too damned early). Follow me on the socials for continuous bitching and analysis. 

So Happy Oscar Nominations Day, y'all! And of course, Shalom and Seasons Screenings!